RationalExuberance @AlexDemache

New York, NY Joined December 2013

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537
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal

5 hours ago

@M_C_Klein The counter is that job leavers are below 2019 values, and those under 25 are getting hammered, both, in theory, leading signals.

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Job growth is weak but does not feel recessionary. Private payroll growth low but stable for 4 months around breakeven, consumption indicators improved in July, earnings season was good, and financial conditions are getting quite easy. You could make the case this is the trough.

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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

6 hours ago

Private-sector employers added 29,000 jobs, on average, per month over the three months ended August, the lowest such growth since the pandemic. The six-month average for private-sector payroll growth slowed to 67,000.

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Guy Berger @EconBerger

6 hours ago

BLS charts: 1/ Another bad jobs report. Weak job gains, and most concerningly the unemployment rate inches up further (now just a hair above 4.3%).

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ACLLC @acllc2

6 hours ago

UST 3s, 10s, 30s supply next week. Below: 3yr Yield Daily

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

6 hours ago

2s5s is just too flat.... but we need the dust to settle down

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Bespoke Taylor @OGTaylorB

a day ago

Once you realize 95% of relationship songs are basically co-dependency, you can't unhear it.

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Parker Ross @Econ_Parker

a day ago

The July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reveals the details underlying the recent sharp deceleration in net hiring activity. It's pretty straightforward: hiring has downshifted and separations have turned higher in recent months. Clearly, if these recent trends…

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a day ago

ADP 4-month average down to 42K, low of the cycle

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First Squawk @FirstSquawk

3 days ago

DIAMOND PRICES CRASH TO LOWEST LEVEL OF THE CENTURY

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The Long View @HayekAndKeynes

7 days ago

I noted the tariff ruling was likely months ago but worth flagging a few things: -Tariffs are still in effect until Oct (stayed) -Does not apply to all categories of tariffs -Ruling wasn’t that decisive (7-4) -Will go to SCOTUS on appeal -Even if they are shot down he can…

The Long View @HayekAndKeynes

4 months ago

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a week ago

@traderEstandard To your point today's initial claims

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a week ago

It will be a refunding month-end tomorrow so a larger duration extension, but corp IG issuance ramps up next week (Sept) so some cross-currents to watch out for in trading Ts. Also expecting more belly issuance given the long-end agita

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juice @traderEstandard

a week ago

@Fullcarry not sure how long the pricing in front end can last without new data confirming it. they are putting too much emphasis on trump's fed imo.

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Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity

a week ago

🇺🇸 Q2 US GDP was revised up to 3.3% from 3.0%. The revision's composition was strong, driven by higher consumption (1.6%) & business investment (5.7%). Notably, growth in intellectual property products was revised to 12.8%. Real private domestic final sales was revised up 0.7pp…

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a week ago

@fejau_inc Meh... not so convincing to me. x.com/BobEUnlimited/…

Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a week ago

@fejau_inc Meh... not so convincing to me. x.com/BobEUnlimited/…

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𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype

a week ago

2s5s30s: "Cuts will come sooner or later, and the later they are, the sooner they'll come"

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56 years ago

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Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader

a week ago

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions keep getting looser and looser. Now as loose as they were in 2019 when the Fed was cutting rates to 1.5% and expanding their balance sheet. But they keep claiming they are "moderately restrictive" and now signalling more rate cuts. How…