Market Interest @MarketInterest
Global Macro & Emerging Markets. Not financial advice. #FinTwit #EconTwitter Joined April 2017-
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The next time someone asks me about stagflation... "I don't see the stag or the flation" - Powell. May 2024
Worth restating that wealth effect impact on consumption is super tiny. Research papers I read during Covid pointed to around a few cents in a dollar, annually (iirc). Intuitively, this makes sense because those with large enough personal investments are low MPC cohorts.
Worth restating that wealth effect impact on consumption is super tiny. Research papers I read during Covid pointed to around a few cents in a dollar, annually (iirc). Intuitively, this makes sense because those with large enough personal investments are low MPC cohorts.
Powell: we just want to be careful that we don't target wage growth or the labour market. Also Powell a few minutes earlier: cites JOLTS and broader labour. Absent "hot labour" we'd be cutting already. Let's not kid ourselves.
It was a good call for creating market debate but ultimately was a step too far in US macro optimism. It's enough of a positive surprise that a recession hasn't happened yet. Expecting hikes meant the labour market re-heating, failing which inflation wouldn't revive.
It was a good call for creating market debate but ultimately was a step too far in US macro optimism. It's enough of a positive surprise that a recession hasn't happened yet. Expecting hikes meant the labour market re-heating, failing which inflation wouldn't revive.
QT taper speaks to the shadow Fed Funds (stimulative move), but this is a Wall St impact (stocks may rally). For the real economy (Main St), that remains unchanged (higher for longer). Restrictive. Thus, the read of hawkish/dovish depends on which sector; financial or real.
I've pencilled in what I think happens to the job vacancies to unemployed ratio when macro goes wrong. TLDR? It gaps lower. We know (from research) that some of these job openings are fake, for job signalling. When macro reflexivity turns negative, this ratio could shock very…
I've pencilled in what I think happens to the job vacancies to unemployed ratio when macro goes wrong. TLDR? It gaps lower. We know (from research) that some of these job openings are fake, for job signalling. When macro reflexivity turns negative, this ratio could shock very… https://t.co/dV3AOCwjT7
When I grow up, I want to be famous like @NickTimiraos, being quoted by financial market news tickers 😊. Well deserved too...
When I grow up, I want to be famous like @NickTimiraos, being quoted by financial market news tickers 😊. Well deserved too...
In truth, everyone is surprised inflation went down without a contemporaneous recession. The bond and money market priced that recession, so it's a bit odd to attribute that missed expectation at one person's feet. Not sure what the upside is....
In truth, everyone is surprised inflation went down without a contemporaneous recession. The bond and money market priced that recession, so it's a bit odd to attribute that missed expectation at one person's feet. Not sure what the upside is....
The JGB market is about as insulated as it can get from portfolio flow shocks. The share of local ownership of the debt stock plus the mountain of FX reserves means Japan remains an A-rated economy even with govt debt %GDP >250%. Source: MoF.
Japanification in a chart. Source: Japan MoF 2023 This chart demonstrates that the G7 runs a structural primary deficit (GDP-weighted or simple average). Japan's "advantage" in the overall fiscal picture is structurally low debt service cost %GDP on the stock of its debt. The…
I should address the question of Japan's large stock of local currency debt during this JPY plunge. Two things make it a non-issue wrt BoJ policy tools (rate hikes). 1) The stock of debt is issued at ultra low rates. It'll take monumental issuance for new debt to cause a big…
I should address the question of Japan's large stock of local currency debt during this JPY plunge. Two things make it a non-issue wrt BoJ policy tools (rate hikes). 1) The stock of debt is issued at ultra low rates. It'll take monumental issuance for new debt to cause a big…
Dollar bid is here to stay for some time.
Dollar bid is here to stay for some time.
Come on guys, Japan doesn't meet the criteria of a currency crisis country. I'll give you a necessary and sufficient condition; hard currency shortage. Japan has literally the opposite, an abundance. It almost doesn't matter what other strains weak FX is causing.
Come on guys, Japan doesn't meet the criteria of a currency crisis country. I'll give you a necessary and sufficient condition; hard currency shortage. Japan has literally the opposite, an abundance. It almost doesn't matter what other strains weak FX is causing.
JPY dynamics risk being viewed as a regional risk rather than a severe idiosyncratic story. However, despite this "contagion" risk, JPY is an idiosyncratic story and is unlikely to evolve into competitive devaluation in Asia. For starters, authorities are fighting yen weakness.…
Someone should do to covered interest parity what's already been done to the efficient market hypothesis. Debunking....
I'm surprised by the comment in the FT piece that Japan intervention "might be" limited because investors would "continue to exploit Japan's low interest rate [funding]". It lacks historical perspective, unfortunately. Two obvious challenges: 1) Capacity to intervene (MoF/BoJ)…
I'm surprised by the comment in the FT piece that Japan intervention "might be" limited because investors would "continue to exploit Japan's low interest rate [funding]". It lacks historical perspective, unfortunately. Two obvious challenges: 1) Capacity to intervene (MoF/BoJ)…
The FX market almost always tests institutional resolve. Even pegged currencies get tested (USDHKD et al) but the wall of offsetting flow (CB ammunition) forces speculators to look elsewhere. It's helpful not to conflate an opportunistic flow (USDJPY upside with a tight stop) as…
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38K Followers 2K Following Co-Fundador de @alphacast_ Ex Subsecretario de Programación Macroeconómica. Data Science. Creando una plataforma para el trabajo colaborativo en economías@MarketInterest And inflation went from "transitory" to "sticky" 😂
@MarketInterest While patting himself on the back about how far we’ve come ….
@MarketInterest Issue is wealth effect of Wall Street feeds into main Street...
Powell: "I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike."
Fed tapering QT from $60 to $25 billion per month. This reduces the Treasury's funding hole (deficit + QT runoff) from ~$2.5 trillion to ~$2.08 trillion.
The Fed is likely to end QT before its balance sheet hits 25% of GDP...larger than it was at the PEAK of QE 3.
Jack makes a good point FOMC staying true to their recent comments that balance sheet is separate from monetary policy. I think that is a mistake, but what do I know.
My dumb-guy interpretation of Fed statement so far: hawkish on rates "In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective." dovish on balance sheet policy (QT taper in June from $60B to $25B in Treasurys)
Do they think moderating labor tightness will eventually get inflation down, and they just need to be patient? OR Is there some other reason why inflation is staying high and the Fed needs to take action? That's your big Fed question for 2024 IMO.
🇺🇸March #JOLTS: Slowing labor demand via much softer hiring as quitting has normalizing, but still limited layoffs 🔻Job openings: 8.49mn (-325k): low since 02/21 🔻Hiring: 5.50mn (-281k): low since Covid 🔻Quits: 3.14mn (-185k); low since 01/21 ⚠️Layoff: 1.44mn (-155k)
@MarketInterest Queue up every joke you know about economists and let them fly 😆
3/ Layoffs ticked back down. They're very, very low by historical standards - despite the scary news headlines, there's no sign of layoffs spiking upward.
The private-sector job vacancy rate fell to 5.3% in March, the lowest level since January 2021 There were 1.3 vacancies for every unemployed worker in March, the lowest since August 2021
@MarketInterest That doesn't bode well for consumer spending but when GDP per capita growth is the yardstick everyone needs, well...
@MarketInterest which i appreciate but you're an actual investor not a talking head, so i expect reasonableness from you more so than from others :) i expect nothing less!
Reminder that I took the L when I was wrong about a growth slowdown for 5m in 2023 both here on twitter and in the WSJ. I explained *why* I had been wrong, what I missed, and how I updated my views. Have the disinflation-cut advocates done any L-taking? Any changes to models?
@MarketInterest you can just check out Japan 5yr CDS, that'll let you know if you need to panic or not. right now it is telling you to grab another beer and turn on netflix
@MarketInterest Agreed that if rates rise, MoF would have to issue lots of new LC debt to meaningfully increase the debt service burden, which as you say can be inflated away & address deflation. Lots of runway for Japan, even if not infinite. Def not a currency crisis.
Obvs not talking their own book in the slightest...
@MarketInterest Consolidated public sector also looks good with FX sell offs because of unrealized FX gains on reserves — this muddies the fiscal concern and dynamics somewhat.
@MarketInterest Not sure what those painful options are. Obvs weak yen hurts households, consumers, but helps exporters. Ueda says he doesn't see yen weakness contributing to imported inflation. Ideally Japan would just hike rates, but the debt load is too big.
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