PPG @PPGMacro
PPG Macro Independent Strategy. Only tweet when worth it. Not an economist. Former trader. Always an economic historian. LSE. Publican. London, England Joined February 2010-
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Not surprising given that the huge amount of homes under construction has started to fall. The question is when do construction jobs start to fall? First, one reduces hiring. Next one starts firing.
Not surprising given that the huge amount of homes under construction has started to fall. The question is when do construction jobs start to fall? First, one reduces hiring. Next one starts firing. https://t.co/jUY3cfAhoI
Paychex Small Business Jobs Index. Ex-pandemic weakest in its history. paychex.com/employment-wat…
Abandoned in Austin Existing Homes New Home Construction Commercial Real Estate Multifamily Airbnb & A little Alright, Alright Don't miss our tour of Austin CC: @TravisREMindset youtu.be/L9YsN6MP1_w?si…
Link to site and working paper. philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-da…
Link to site and working paper. philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-da…
China non-manufacturing PMI for new orders is at a new, ex-pandemic, low. Doesn't augur well for activity.
In that vein note how Chinese household deposits are surging while credit appetite is subdued. The fall in the loan/depost ratio is unprecedented and deflationary.
In that vein note how Chinese household deposits are surging while credit appetite is subdued. The fall in the loan/depost ratio is unprecedented and deflationary. https://t.co/LIUjQxzsw2
Real personal income excluding government transfer payments is the best proxy for the private sector’s ability to generate real income. In the pre-pandemic expansion, real personal income ex. government transfer payments increased at a 2.9% annualized pace. Higher inflation and…
The equity market has ignored the bond sell-off on the basis of earnings optimism. Any minor disappointment on this front now will leave equities vulnerable. H/T @SoberLook
Alf @MacroAlf
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A reminder that the vast majority of Treasuries held by foreign central banks have a maturity of 5 years or less -- Last data point here is from mid 2023, tis from the latest survey of foreign portfolio investment in the US
The pattern emerging makes it evident US income tax refund season gave spending that last boost. Now what? @Mastercard lowered its revenue-growth forecast for 2024 and showed a slowdown in volume growth for April compared to stronger growth in the first quarter. @MarketWatch
US PMI & ISM both signal easing 🇺🇸 manufacturing activity. #Fed's 🏭 IP told us this a month ago, thx for your help (!) If you want a steer on activity keep tabs on blue-collar employed hours worked in Friday's #payroll report detail👇. Go granular🙏 x.com/takis2910/stat…
US #payrolls 🔥(again), even beleaguered 🇺🇸/hold survey joined party. #JOLTS signal US still has #jobs headroom👇. Uncertainty abt inflation & demand remain. Notably 🏭 output may slump on 16/4 -(wo)man hours worked💩- despite PMI/ISM bullishness. Wary x.com/takis2910/stat…
If the economy is so good, believed by some, why are federal tax receipts coming in less than anticipated? Fair question I believe and gets to my continued belief that the US economy is very uneven with more pros mixed with cons than I've seen in all my years researching,…
March JOLTS thread: 1/ "The Great Stay" continued in March. The hiring rate fell to 3.5%, which last cycle would have been consistent with an unemployment rate around 6.5%. (!!!)
China's annual migrant worker survey is out, and, as ever, it's a banger. Just a few of the hits: 1. Migrant employment in the construction sector fell by 6.5 million in 2023, the largest annual decline since the survey started in 2008. 1/
The usual look at various seasonal adjustment methods. Some meaningful disagreement within core, with question whether goods were soft or very soft, and whether services were moderately hot or not. Regardless, almost all methods agree core and headline were pretty soft.
Don’t believe the headlines about sticky inflation, April was a great month for 🇪🇺#inflation. Core mostly did as expected, with another decline to 2.7% from 2.9%. But it was the headline which was better than expected, inching lower rather than higher (on unrounded basis). 1/
👇@pboockvar - yes, that is the multi-trillion dollar question worth asking (quick answer is because it’s not that strong)!
If the economy is so good, believed by some, why are federal tax receipts coming in less than anticipated? Fair question I believe and gets to my continued belief that the US economy is very uneven with more pros mixed with cons than I've seen in all my years researching,…
Competing views on China's April factory PMI. Does the recovery have legs or is it losing steam? Bottomline from @ChinaBeigeBook: After a strong Q1 the big question was whether the economy could sustain momentum. April shows China’s growth prospects are already losing altitude.
The Multifamily crash is here in Nashville: GVA just sold a property they bought less than 18 months ago for a ~$23M loss. They sold the property for $52M down from $75M they purchased it for in Dec 2022 a ~30% loss in value but a 100% loss in equity as price was lower than…
MS- Some reasonable counterpoints to the steepener. Crowded positioning & much hinges on rate cut path, minor "insurance cuts" versus a more aggressive cycle. I'm not convinced and think you just need to be smart with how you structure it in order be able to ride this cycle…
There isn’t much to say about core – mostly because of it sticked to script. Services were much softer than in Jan-Mar, but that is a lot about reversal of early Easter effect. More interestingly, goods had another sub-0% month, something that is becoming the norm. 9/
Months Supply of US Single-Family Housing (Supply/Demand) The months supply of US single-family housing is vastly different among new homes and existing homes. Historically, a months supply of 6.0 represents a balanced market without significant upward or downward price…
My views on the yen, on Bloomberg 1/2 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…