RecessionALERT @RecessionAlert
Quantitative models for US & global leading macro-economic data for assessing recession & market risk. Also SP500 market timing & probability models. join.recessionalert.com Toronto, Canada Joined October 2016-
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August is historically worst month for Bitcoin. Its the worst median gain, second-worst reward/risk (gain/loss ratio) and worst month for positive gains. September is the second-worst month. This makes Aug/Sep the "Doom Zone" for the cryptocurrency. This year could be running…
Its interesting to take long-term data sets as that provided below and subject it to a handful of statistical probability models to estimate the odds that current bull market is over. The average probability across these five methods is 66.11%. This suggests a ~66% chance that…
Its interesting to take long-term data sets as that provided below and subject it to a handful of statistical probability models to estimate the odds that current bull market is over. The average probability across these five methods is 66.11%. This suggests a ~66% chance that… https://t.co/NvH6v6K0Ge
The U.S. GDP-to-unemployment ratio signals a potential late-cycle recession, as unemployment growth outpaces GDP - a common precursor to economic contraction. However, none of the NBER’s six coincident indicators have confirmed a recession, despite two near misses in 2022 and…
Q2 2025 GDP rebounded to 3.0% after Q1’s -0.5%, but labor market cracks deepen: July unemployment hit 4.2%, with BLS revising May-June payrolls down a historic 258k jobs. Three month job growth at 35k, weakest since 2020. Tariffs (8/1/25) could cut 2025 GDP by 0.9% (JPMorgan).…
The average tariff on Canadian exports to the U.S. rose from ~0.5% before Trump’s election to 2–6% after the August 1, 2025, tariff increase. This is because the 35% tariff just levied on Canada imports only applies to 5% of Canada exports to the U.S, since approx. 95% is exempt…
Employment Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions,…
Against the backdrop of U.S Trump Tariff war against the rest of the world, the U.S trade deficit is exploding higher. Front-loaded importing to dodge the ultimate tariffs perhaps? Certainly not the graph one would expect to reflect the dramatic rise in import tariffs. According…
U.S Average wage growth remains on the decline across the board since the 2023 peak, but Government workers are declining the slowest whilst Trade & Transport and Manufacturing are declining the fastest as of June 2025👇
Consumer Credit Card originations are on the UP. Most of the gains are for those with credit scores of 720 and above, whilst modest gains for those with credit scores of 660 to 719.
Well look what popped up today - the fourth bull market signal we have issued since the 07 April lows - following the other 3 usually more timely signals that are all up double-digits now. This signal is premised on new high breakouts to confirm the bull market trajectory has…
The five quarter streak of improvement across global economies responsible for over 97% of world economic output hit a roadblock in the first quarter of 2025...
The inverse relationship between the trade-weighted US Dollar and Bitcoin has existed since BTC became more widely adopted around 2016 and sits at around r-square 0.74 although this has declined over recent years from a peak of 0.9 r-square. The decline is r-square since 2021 is…
CHANGING US TREASURY LANDSCAPE The chart below depicts foreign holdings of US Treasuries by China, Japan, and the UK from 2001 to 2025. Key trends: - **China** peaked around 2015 at over $1.2T, but has since declined sharply to below $0.5T by 2025. - **Japan** surpassed China in…
Our major trough BTFD signals are now up 9.2%, 7.8% and 7% respectively in order they were issued. Some follow-on (confirmation signals) will appear from other models if the rally continues...
Its going to be some (wild) times in the markets until we get the all-clear from a switch to a low volatility regime again...until then, fasten your safety belts...What gains you secure by being early in big market bottoms usually comes with a big volatility price-tag.
With a mere 9% compression in Shiller trailing PE's, this "bear market" has been relatively mild to say the least. In fact the PE compression history show this to be a mere 39 percentile meaning 61% of the time in the past, valuation compression has been steeper than current…
Three out of eight potential signals are on the board now... The first (ALGO-1) was on 9 April, the 2nd (PEV) on 25th April and the 3rd (OCTAEDGE-1) on 30 April. join.recessionalert.com
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