Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz
Wharton. McKinsey. UBS. Securities industry since '94. Asia ex-pat in '80s-90s. Elected to Mill Valley City Council in '20. Blocked by Zero Hedge since 2010. fat-pitch.blogspot.com San Francisco Joined May 2009-
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$SPY 50-dma is rising because it's dropping days from 50 days ago (arrow) that are below the current price. Things start to get more interesting in a week; price needs to stay above the blue line for the 50-dma to keep rising
Here's your first 5% pullback of 2024. A typical year will have two more of these by year end and still gain ~9%. It's the Money God's price for earning a return above risk-free
Here's your first 5% pullback of 2024. A typical year will have two more of these by year end and still gain ~9%. It's the Money God's price for earning a return above risk-free
Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Over the past 10 years, those 'worst six months' of the year you are about to hear a lot about have been higher 8 times.
Real GDP growth came in at 1.6% in Q1, softer than expected. But that appears to be driven by weakness in volatile components, especially net exports. Private domestic final purchases--"core GDP" made up of consumption & fixed investment--grew 3.1%, a very strong print.
On Tuesday, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks reaching an oversold status increased above 73%, triggering an alert for a TCTM Composite Washout Model component.
In perhaps the #MysteryBroker's boldest statement, he asserts: "The S&P 500 will trade again at a 10 or lower P/E within the next 10 to 15 years which will wipe out a whole decade of earnings growth (P/E going from 20 to 10 will offset earnings increasing 100%)." Blending…
WHEN A FIVE MONTH S&P WINNING STREAK IS BROKEN With seven trading days remaining in the month of April, the S&P is currently down 5.46% for the month & likely facing the end of a five month winning streak with the rally that began on Oct 27 topping out at 27.6% on March 28.…
Been traveling and off X for the last few days. I'm back, and the Quantifiable Edges CBI spiked to a bullish 12 reading on Wednesday. More info on CBI readings here: quantifiableedges.com/category/cbi/ $SPX $SPY #breadth
BLS data on rents for new tenants out today show they rose just 0.4% over the last four quarters, marking the slowest pace of advance since 2010. The largest and most important component of the consumer price index is likely soon to follow them lower
A well-worn heuristic among market technicians is that multiple days of heavy selling pressure with no intervening sessions of overwhelming buying interest is a terrible sign. That seems like it should be a concern now. Since the latest momentum push began last fall, there…
First close beneath the 50-day MA for the S&P 500 in 110 trading days, longest since 2011. Looking at when streaks over 100 days ended showed stocks were higher 3 mos later 88% of time and 6 mos later 81% of time. A warning? Maybe, but maybe not.
@ukarlewitz Demographics and re-shoring are both inflationary. The Goodhart & Pradhan book is outstanding. Zeihan’s book is more mainstream. You can view Zeihan’s talk at the Commonwealth Club from Dec 2022 via this link 👇👇👇 youtu.be/BSpT0yEtFBY?si…
CPI too hot to handle? Alt inflation headline reads out: Inflation running below Fed's 2% target on both core and headline CPI using more real-time shelter! Instead of 5.7% BLS shelter, avg of Apt List/Zillow: 1.1% Let's be careful from over emphasizing too hot headlines!
So far, the Cycle Composite Index has been closest analogue in 2024, with $SPX tracking slightly above the Cycle Composite Index. Still speaks to a Sell In May and... come back quickly! $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM
Just amazing to me that so many strategists still--after 15yrs of QE--don't understand how the monetary plumbing works. I get that many strategists *need* to believe the market it artificially being propped up somehow to protect their world view or their directional call, but…
The Fed has shrunk its balance sheet by about $1.5 trillion since starting quantitative tightening. A big question for some strategists is at what point it'll start mattering more significantly to markets.
FUNDSTRAT: today’s selloff “is probably a ‘gift’ .. In fact, stocks being weak into the jobs report is actually a positive setup. .. raises the probability of a rally .. we are buying this short-term dip.” @fundstrat $SPX
The $VIX closed above 16 for the first time in almost six months. Can someone point out the scary part please?
S&P 500 up 10% back-to-back quarters? Pretty rare, but higher a yr later 6 of 7 times and up 12.3% on avg.
"Investors underperform over longer timeframes by trying to outperform over shorter timeframe" - @ukarlewitz
@WillieDelwiche Data of as of yesterday