Analytic @Analytic_Trader

The numbers tell the story. Numbers - Process - Clarity. Not financial advice. Applied statistical methods for gaining clarity into the financial markets. discord.gg/JjGF6ApJjQ Joined September 2016

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 weeks ago

Tom Lee: A V bottom recovery is the most common for the SPX. #TomLee #SPX #BTXC #Prediction #Marker #Recovery #TomLee #SPX #Recovery #Market

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Two Critical Macro Flows for determining the Market Condition: [Inflation] 1) PPI -> Consumer Inflation Expectations -> FOMC Meeting Minutes -> Fed Chair Jackson Hole Speech -> CPI Cycle -> CPI -> FOMC Rate Decision [Job Market] JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 weeks ago

PPI -> Consumer Inflation Expectations Estimate -> FOMC July Minutes -> Powell Jackson Hole Speech -> CPI Cycle -> CPI -> Sept FOMC Rate Decision The July 2025 FOMC minutes indicated a moderate probability—estimated at 60–75 percent—of a dovish speech by Chair Jerome Powell at…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 weeks ago

Market Metrics Update: 8-15-25 The Basic Market Benchmark is very positive however the MCM V4 model is saying the market has a lot of weakness. #Market #Condition #Metrics #Model #SPX #BTC

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 weeks ago

Market Condition Model V4: A First look. Purpose: To maximize Alpha while minimizing Risk by ranking critical market metrics and then adjusting the portfolio asset composition and position size to reflect the current market risk. Methodology: - Macro Quantamental…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

3 weeks ago

PPI → Consumer Inflation Expectations Estimate → FOMC July Minutes → CPI Cycle → CPI → Sept FOMC Rate Decision PPI, Inflation Expectations: Early Warning Indicators FOMC Minutes: Context CPI Cycle: Timing estimate for risk mitigation CPI: Confirming indicator, Critical…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

3 weeks ago

I have been saying for a while now that retail day trading has a medium and long term negative expectancy. You may get lucky in the short term but you need to realize that all you are doing is making reactive decisions based on slow and lagging indicators using overfitted…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

3 weeks ago

Higher than expected PPI dropped the market earlier today. X*PPI -> CPI, PPI is the driver for CPI but Inflation Expectations will tell us what the expected factor multiplier X is. This is a bit of an oversimplification of course: The Role of a Multiplier (X): The notion…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

4 weeks ago

Market Metrics Update: 8-8-25 Aggressive Portfolio: 60% Risk On Conservative Portfolio: 25% Risk On Summary: Positive Factors: Daily Drift Bias Market Drift Bias Daily Money Flow Weekly Money Flow Volatility Model Negative Factors: Market Context Market Cycle…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

4 weeks ago

Market Condition Model Version 4: Preview Purpose: Estimate future SPX DD% magnitude and SPX Large Magnitude DD Cycle Timing. Basic Framework: Risk Driver Factors -> Risk Drivers -> Agent Factors -> Agents -> Momentum Network Effect -> PFL -> Crowding -> Reversal Signal ->…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

Market Metrics Update: 8-1-25 Summary: The market currently operates in a Risk-On regime, characterized by low stress, positive macro directional momentum, and stable liquidity, though with neutral cycle and flow dynamics tempering enthusiasm. This environment favors…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

Estimate where the price of SPX , TSLA, NVDA, SOXL, SVIX, SVOL, MSTR, GLD, SLV, CPER will be if BTC goes down to $20,000 USD? Price estimates by Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research, and ChatGPT Deep Research. Summary: This scenario underscores a fundamental shift in the…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

Estimate where the price of SPX , TSLA, NVDA, SOXL, SVIX, SVOL, MSTR, GLD, SLV, CPER will be if BTC goes down to $20,000 USD? Answer by Abacus.AI Deep Agent: Risk Category Definitions: Safe Haven: Expected decline ≤ 5% in worst case Low Risk: Expected decline…