Arthur Mota @ArthurLulaM
Global Macro Strategy at BTG Pactual US | MSc in Economics University of Sao Paulo | #rstats | all opinions are my own. macroconvexity.substack.com Miami, FL Joined October 2010-
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The real question is: does this surprise with Core PCE reflect an insane March print (48 bps) or will it be diluted in revisions to January and March? The inputs wouldn't have come from CPI and PPI, in this second case....
Given the evolution of factors, we should be pleased if any cuts occur this year.
on our watch, 7 out of 12 voting members of the FOMC appear to be leaning towards three or more rate cuts this year. The monthly Core CPI will run between 26-29 bps from now until June.
Jobless Claims is nowhere near a level that suggests a weak labor market
Three dovish moments from Powell: 1 - In January, he felt very comfortable stating that March was off the table. Now, when asked about May and June, he was quite evasive, suggesting that they hadn't discussed future meetings and that they would continue to monitor the data.…
In recent years, massive immigration has resulted in side effects, including more persistent economic growth through the incorporation of this new wave of consumers. These consumers typically focus on a staples and tend to be less sensitive to rate changes
US CPI: Still elevated but a less harmful composition The headline CPI for February increased by 0.44% m/m, surpassing market expectations (0.39% m/m) but aligning closely with our estimates (0.43% m/m). In the components most relevant to the headline print, we emphasize the…
Despite the decline in the quit rate in January's JOLTS, it remains high (and even growing) in some of the service sectors that have demanded and employed the most new workers. This should keep payrolls running at a pace above the historical average for longer. The core services…
China started the Two Sessions meeting - the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). The government released its main target for the year and overall no big surprise - which is not exactly good news for those who were…
Verstappen continues to race in another event, while Pérez has won the mortal's Formula 1 race
Grande perda! Tive a oportunidade de ter conversas trimestrais com ele nos últimos três anos. Sempre muito lúcido e preparado, contribuiu para a discussão do ciclo monetário aqui e no ambiente global.
Grande perda! Tive a oportunidade de ter conversas trimestrais com ele nos últimos três anos. Sempre muito lúcido e preparado, contribuiu para a discussão do ciclo monetário aqui e no ambiente global.
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1993 Brazilian GP 🇧🇷 "The crowd is going absolutely crazy!...Look at the crowd of worshipers here in Brazil!...They chant for Senna, they sing songs that will drown out the note of that Ford V8." 🎞 ESPN. 🎙Derek Daly & Bob Varsha. #AyrtonSenna
IMF SEES OPEC+ STARTING TO LIFT OIL OUTPUT GRADUALLY FROM JULY.
😂😂😂😂😂 ded
IMF Growth Forecast: 2024 🇺🇸 US: 2.7% 🇩🇪 Germany: 0.2% 🇫🇷 France: 0.7% 🇮🇹 Italy: 0.7% 🇪🇸 Spain: 1.9% 🇬🇧 UK: 0.5% 🇯🇵 Japan: 0.9% 🇨🇳 China: 4.6% 🇮🇳 India: 6.8% 🇷🇺 Russia: 3.2% 🇧🇷 Brazil: 2.2% 🇲🇽 Mexico: 2.4% 🇸🇦 KSA: 2.6% 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 3.3% 🇿🇦 S. Africa: 0.9% imf.org/en/Publication…
ECB'S SIMKUS: ONLY A HUGE SURPRISE WOULD DERAIL A JUNE CUT. - CNBC
ISRAEL CONSIDERED STRIKING IRAN ON MONDAY BUT DECIDED TO WAIT - FIVE U.S. AND ISRAELI SOURCES TOLD BARAK RAVID.
BIDEN EXPECTED TO REMOVE TARIFF EXEMPTION FOR BIFACIAL SOLAR PANEL IMPORTS -SOURCES
ECB'S HOLZMANN: THE ECB MOVING AHEAD OF THE FED MEANS CUTS ARE LESS EFFECTIVE.
With inflation coming down, rebuilding fiscal buffers & ensuring debt sustainability are priorities. Governments should target support to vulnerable groups. (4/6) imf.org/en/Publication…
Central banks face a delicate balance - cutting rates too soon could reignite inflation, while delaying easing too long may lead to overtightening. (5/6) imf.org/en/Publication…
To strengthen medium-term prospects, policymakers should: – Gradually reduce debt – Implement structural reforms - Continue to improve policy frameworks – Promote global trade integration – Invest in climate & digitalization More in my blog. (6/6) imf.org/en/Blogs/Artic…
Jeremy Hunt Says Rate Cuts Would Lift UK Mood, Hints At Fall Vote - BBG bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
😂
Jerome Powell when he finally announces his first rate cut
NY Fed's John Williams slightly revises up his PCE inflation forecast for the year to 2.25-2.5% in a new speech. It was 2-2.25% as of Feb 28. New speech: newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe… Old speech: newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe…
Hilarious but true!
Yesterday a 56% chance of a rate cut in June. Now down to 16%. It's a bit damned-if you do, damned if you don't. Too much forward guidance locks Fed into the wrong places. Too much data dependence means lots of volatility with each print. Not sure what is a better way.
#HEATWIn final (2OT) - Miami 117, Atlanta 111 🔥 Herro: 33pts (4 3s), 5rebs & 4asts 🔥 Butler: 25pts, 9asts, 8rebs & 3stls 🔥 Jović: 23pts (5 3s) & 8rebs 🔥 Highsmith: 13pts (3 3s) & 7rebs 🔥 Adebayo: 10pts, 7rebs, 7asts & 3stls
Yellen loves China trips. If not shrooms it's booze.
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