🇺🇸 Fed rate cut odds jump to 99% for Sept after weak jobs report!
#CME FedWatch:
97.8% chance of 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%,
2.2% chance of 50 bps to 3.75%-4.00%.
⚠️The non-farm payroll report numbers continue to show a downward revision, and the revised June NFP number is actually -13k, the negative reading since 2020.
en.macromicro.me/collections/4/…
🇺🇸 US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls disappoint at +22K (est. +75K), down from July’s +79K!
Big gains in Education & Health (+46k), Leisure & Hospitality (+28k), and Retail (+10.5k).
Losses in Pro. & Business Services (-17k), Government (-16k), and Manufacturing (-12k).
🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls disappoint at +22K (est. +75K), down from July’s +79K!
Unemployment steady at 4.3%. Hourly earnings rise 3.7% YoY, +0.3% MoM, in line with forecasts.
en.macromicro.me/collections/4/…
🇯🇵 Japan's real wages in July turned positive for the first time in seven months.
Nominal wages grew 4.1% YoY, surpassing June's 3.1% growth. Real wages rose by 0.5%.
en.macromicro.me/collections/50…
🇺🇸 With the US August Nonfarm Payrolls releasing soon, markets expect:
🔹 Nonfarm Payrolls: +75K (prev. +73K)
🔹 Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (prev. 4.2%)
🔹 Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.7% (prev. 3.9%)
With JOLTS showing job openings fell to 7.2M and ADP at just 54K, markets are…
China's large AI model development has nearly matched US output in sheer numbers.
Meanwhile, export restrictions on chips have created an unexpected dynamic - spurring domestic Chinese processor innovation that's now competitive with restricted US chips.
The law of unintended…
🏠 Mortgage rates hit their lowest since Oct 2024, yet the NAHB Housing Market Index sits at a dismal 32—well below the 50 "healthy market" line.
Even with lower borrowing costs, buyer traffic remains anemic at 22 and 66% of builders are using incentives (highest since COVID).…
Warren Buffett once said 120% market cap to GDP means stocks are overvalued.
Today, we're at 214%. Is the ruler broken?
en.macromicro.me/collections/34…
🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US ISM Services PMI rises to 52 in Aug 2025, a 6-month high, beating est. 51:
🔹 New Orders: 56 (vs 50.3)
🔹 Employment: 46.5 (vs 46.4)
🔹 Prices Paid: 69.2 (vs 69.9)
Strong business activity & orders drive growth, but employment contracts & tariffs loom…
AI has pushed the Nasdaq up 90% since 2022—matching the dot-com boom.
But semiconductors are only up 50%, vs. +250% during the 1990s internet surge.
Chips look like they still have plenty of room to run 📈
🇺🇸 The last interest rate cutting cycle began in Sep 2024 and ended in Dec 2024.
Contrary to the usual expectation of falling yields during rate cuts, the 10y US Treasury yield has risen sharply, increasing from 3.62% to 4.79%.
If the Fed resumes rate cuts in coming weeks,…
🚨 The Crypto - % Above 200-Day Moving Average dropped from 77% on 8/13 to 50%.
This chart shows the percentage of the top 150 #crypto above their 200-day moving average. A 70-80% ratio signals an overheated market, while 20-30% suggests a potential rebound.…
🚨 US JOLT report shows the ratio of job openings to unemployed people has dropped to 0.99.
For the first time since April 2021, there's less than one job opening per unemployed person on average.
🔗Data: en.macromicro.me/toolbox/chart-…
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