COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group @COVID19actuary
Continuing to share regular data and analysis on excess mortality and hospital admissions with Covid-19. Run by volunteers. covidactuaries.org United Kingdom Joined March 2020-
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Today is the start of the CMI's 100th year! #actuaries actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-deve…
There’s a lot of confusion about the new ONS excess deaths methodology. Some thoughts on the model, its limitations and #ExcessDeaths in general. These are personal views. I don’t speak for ONS or any other organisations or individuals involved in updating the method. 1/17
In a new blog published today @ONS have announced a new UK-wide approach to producing national estimates of excess mortality. New method moves away from 5-year averages, using statistical models to estimate expected number of deaths and hence any excess. blog.ons.gov.uk/2024/02/15/exc…
Adele's contribution to @COVID19actuary can't be overstated. She coauthored over 40 reports in 2years and gave generously of her time to inform media and the public, all while wrestling with her health and being there for her family, friends and colleagues. She'll be much missed.
Adele's contribution to @COVID19actuary can't be overstated. She coauthored over 40 reports in 2years and gave generously of her time to inform media and the public, all while wrestling with her health and being there for her family, friends and colleagues. She'll be much missed.
I am so sad to hear of Adele’s passing. We were last in contact on Thursday, and although I was aware the end was close, it is still such a shock to hear that she is no longer with us. 1/
I am so sad to hear of Adele’s passing. We were last in contact on Thursday, and although I was aware the end was close, it is still such a shock to hear that she is no longer with us. 1/
It is with sadness that I, @lrossouw, have to let you know that Adele passed away from cancer late on Friday. I've known Adele for many years since she was working in Cape Town, to when she moved to Gen Re in London in 2008 and later when she joined my team at Gen Re.
Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 19% in-week. R-estimate is stable at 1.12. Admissions rose in all English regions. Largest increases in the South West (61%) and NE&Yorks (35%). Acute bed occupancy is up by 6%.
UKHSA estimates that prevalence of COVID in England and Scotland has nearly tripled in the month since the ONS restarted its COVID infection surveillance. 1/ gov.uk/government/sta…
Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 22% in-week. R-estimate fell slightly to 1.11. Admissions rose in all English regions. Largest increases in the Midlands (30%) and the North West (30%). Acute bed occupancy is up by 13%.
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 8 December. Death rates this week were very similar to the equivalent week in 2019 (0.3% higher), based on death registrations data. 1/3
I've been poring over today's NHS data releases and the picture for emergency care isn't pretty. Last year I estimated 400 additional deaths a week arising from A&E delays, Sep-Nov. This year looks just as bad, despite less Covid and flu - so far! lcp.com/our-viewpoint/…
📃 Latest @UKHSA #influenza surveillance report for England ⏰ Week 49 2023 data (04-10 Dec 2023) ⬆️ influenza activity in many indicators, broadly tracking trend from 2017/18 & 2018/19 📊Influenza hospitalisations crossed into low impact threshold 🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/657afbb5…
Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 27% in-week. R-estimate incresed to 1.15. Admissions were flat in the East (-2%) but rose sharply elsewhere. Largest increases in the South East (46%) and the South West (45%). Acute bed occupancy is up by 26%.
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 1 December. Death rates this week were 1% lower than the equivalent week in 2019, based on death registrations data. 1/3
It's back! After a hiatus of 8 months, it's a welcome return for the ONS #COVIDinfectionstudy, and it shows that in England & Scotland the prevalence is around 1.2%. That's up from the previous week of 1.0%, but still much lower than any prevalence seen last winter. 1/
Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 10% in-week. Our R-value has increased to 1.06. Admissions rose in all regions except NE&Yorks (-6%). Largest increaes in the South West (+35%) and the East (+29%). Acute bed occupancy is up by 4%.
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 24 November. Death rates this week were very similar to the equivalent week in 2019 (0.3% higher), based on death registrations data. 1/3
Post-pandemic mortality analysis from the Continuous Mortality Investigation features in the latest edition of The Lancet Regional Health - Europe: actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media…
For ages 50-64, deaths involving cardiovascular diseases such as heart disease and stroke were 33% higher than expected. Other causes with significant excess deaths at ages 50-64 were acute respiratory infections (43% excess) and diabetes (35% excess).
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3K Followers 2K Following PhD from QMUL 2020. Research on WWI finance. Ex-FT Demography Correspondent.Honorary actuary. [email protected] Follows #economics #pensions, #population.
Cornelius Roemer @CorneliusRoemer
39K Followers 5K Following Studying SARS-CoV-2 evolution @nextstrain @biozentrum Studied Physics @Cambridge_Uni, then learned about computers @corneliusroemer.bsky.social
Jennifer Lang 🐧 @Actuarialeye
1K Followers 812 Following Sydney based director and actuary looking at the world through an actuarial eye. Lots of statistics, often feminist. She/her.
Graham Medley @GrahamMedley
10K Followers 2K Following Professor of infectious disease modelling and chair of SPI-M (sub-group of SAGE). Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements.
Isaac Bogoch @BogochIsaac
182K Followers 995 Following Infectious Diseases physician and scientist, with thoughts on Infectious Diseases, Tropical Medicine, HIV Prevention, Public Health, and Global Health issues.Age-standardised mortality rates year-to-date remain among the lowest seen (though last 3 weeks distorted by B/Hols). CMI analysis directly compares mortality rates each year - there is no baseline. Source: CMI Mortality Monitor; based on registrations actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f…
The Tobacco and Vapes Bill, if passed, will prevent thousands of people being disabled or dying prematurely. Tobacco addicts people at a young age, taking their choices away and then killing them. The 4 UK CMOs support creating a smokefree generation.
Today, MPs vote on new laws to protect our future generations across the UK from the harmful effects of smoking and to tackle youth vaping. The UK’s Chief Medical Officers explain why they're supporting our plans for a #SmokefreeGeneration 🔽 gov.uk/government/new…
Link to weekly and quarterly reports: actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-deve…
The significant improvement in mortality rates has been primarily driven by older ages, where most deaths occur. Death rates in the working age population remains higher than than pre-pandemic. For example, age 20-44 death rates are worse than all years except 2021 and 2023.
This chart shows cumulative mortality rates for each year since 2014. Mortality rates tracked 2019 and 2020 very closely for the first 12 weeks, but thankfully have diverged from 2020 this week, with death rates still tracking pre-pandemic lows.
The CMI has released both its weekly Mortality Monitor and it’s summary of Q1 of 2024. Mortality in the first 3 months of 2024 was similar to the low mortality seen in the first quarters of 2019, 2020 and 2022. This is a significant improvement compared to this time last year.
After 4 years the last weekly update to hospital COVID admissions. I’d like to add my thanks to all those Stuart lists in the thread, and of course add him to that list too, as he’s done a sterling job updating his graphs and providing accompanying analysis over that period.
Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 7% in-week. R-estimate just above 1.0 Regional numbers are small with no clear pattern. Increases in SE (+40%) and NW (+18%), falls in the East (-24%) and SW (-19%), flat elsewhere. Acute bed occupancy is down by 5%.
This is the final weekly update on Covid in English hospitals. A big thank you to @NHSEnglandStats for making this near real-time data available, daily and then weekly, over the last 4 years. 👏 x.com/ActuaryByDay/s…
An update from @NHSEnglandStats confirms that the last weekly update on Covid in hospitals will be 4 April, covering data until the end of March. Monthly data will continue.
Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 7% in-week. R-estimate just above 1.0 Regional numbers are small with no clear pattern. Increases in SE (+40%) and NW (+18%), falls in the East (-24%) and SW (-19%), flat elsewhere. Acute bed occupancy is down by 5%.
@NHSEnglandStats Thanks also to all who supported with producing and sharing charts and commentary, including my @LCP_Actuaries colleague @Luisamandasa and of course all @COVID19actuary. With recent peaks barely exceeding past troughs, its hard to argue against the move to monthly reporting.
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
The last data we have from ONS winter infection survey shows low & stable incidence. Scottish wastewater shows the same. Our European neighbours who monitor wastewater show the same (e.g. Denmark, Finland, Austria, Netherlands, and Germany) None depend on testing behaviour. 5/6
Trends in hospital admissions over the last year do reflect levels of Covid in the community - and that is one reason why I say that there isn't much Covid around now. But it is *not* the only reason I say that. 4/6
In fact hospital testing has been steady since the change in testing a year ago (only symptomatic patients get tested now). The % of people PCR tested who have Covid is 4% - there is no evidence that there are loads of symptomatic people in hospital being missed. 3/6
Hospital admissions with COVID in England decreased by 15% in-week. R-estimate has fallen to 0.9. Admissions remained flat in the East but fell elsewhere. Largest decreases in the Midlands (-30%) and NE&Yorks (-24%) Acute bed occupancy is down by 13%.
Great to see this paper from my colleagues on the correlation between socio-economics (assessed via ZIP codes and pension income) and mortality. (1/3) aon.io/4co8fzg
@mark_toshner Accountant now in NHS management thinks doctors need less training Been doctoring myself for 36yrs I see no sign of it getting easier I see no sign of patients getting less complex I see no sign of expectations falling Indeed all the evidence points in the other direction…
All living UK Chief Medical Officers support the Tobacco and Vapes Bill. Smoking kills and harms very large numbers. Most smokers wish they had never started but are trapped by addiction. A smoke-free generation would be a major health advance. gov.uk/government/new…
Hospital admissions with COVID in England remain at very low levels but increased by 7% in-week. R-estimate slightly above 1.0. Admissions fairly flat in most regions but a large increase in the South East (+43%, albeit based on small numbers). Acute bed occupancy is up by 1%.
Still staggering how successful Covid vaccines were at effectively ending the pandemic Remember those dark days when we just didn't know when we would ever emerge from it We did..in large part due to vaccines @Worldometers
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