Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

Chess fan, spreadsheet fan, stats fan. https://t.co/L1SPEuiLvE author: https://t.co/yikRvcymxQ chess.com/article/view/c… Eugene, OR Joined February 2015

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

3 days ago

So just for fun, if you were in charge of the rules, how would YOU set an activity requirement for eligibility to qualify to the Candidates by rating? Not a debate about having a ratings spot, JUST if there has to be one but only for active players, how would you define active?

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

5 days ago

The September Prodigy Watch update is live chess.com/article/view/c…

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

a week ago

A bit ago I wrote an article "Can Pragg be caught in the FIDE Circuit" and I said yes, even if not too likely. But he just got his 4TH 20+ point event score of the year and at this point no. He won't be caught. But if he wins the Grand Swiss the battle for 2nd gets interesting!

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Tarjei J. Svensen @TarjeiJS

a month ago

The most exciting player today? Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus: ♟️ Second-youngest to reach top 100 ever ♟️ Highest-rated 14-year-old ever (2642) ♟️ Highest-rated 13-year-old ever (2626) ♟️ Highest-rated 12-year-old ever (2569) ♟️ Youngest-ever 2600 player chess.com/news/view/erdo…

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

a month ago

Here are a few players' peak ratings as of Bodhana Sivanandan's current age that I selected (with bias) because I found them interesting. Historical ranks included because I don't want my selection bias to misinform.

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

a month ago

Updated Prodigy Watch for the August rating list! A number of notable gainers this month! chess.com/article/view/c…

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Women's Chess Coverage @OnTheQueenside

a month ago

Congrats to Bodhana Sivanandan on breaking Hou Yifan's record, and becoming the first 10-year-old to earn a WGM norm! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🥳 She also beat a 2400+ player for the first time (!!), and is back over 2200! 👏👏 s1.chess-results.com/tnrWZ.aspx?lan… 📷: Shahid Ahmed #chess #womeninchess

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

2 months ago

Stealth edit to chess.com/article/view/c… just went live, there is now a second table with girls who have a top-50 prodigy rank included! @OnTheQueenside

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

2 months ago

And the July update of Prodigy Watch is live! Remember that chess.com/article/view/c… is a permanent page, not a one-off article, so you can bookmark it and check back periodically. Also it might be another week, but this month's update will eventually include a girls' list too!

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

2 months ago

I took a crack at trying to demystify the FIDE Circuit a little bit: chess.com/article/view/f…

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

3 months ago

And Prodigy Watch is back!!! chess.com/article/view/c…

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

3 months ago

Played my first non-bullet game in a very long time (don't get too excited, just 3/2), and clearly my win was never in doubt lol

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

3 months ago

Prodigy Watch has finally made a return! It's nested in the bottom section of the @chesscom monthly ratings update from @TarjeiJS. This will be regularly maintained, it's not a one-off, the feature IS in fact back! Huzzah! chess.com/news/view/june…

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

4 months ago

I did in fact notice that this bullet move left my rook open to attack, but tbh 100% of my reasoning was "but maybe they won't notice and I can take their rook instead" - which is actually what happened. I did NOT have Bb4+ lined up for actual justification lol. But I'll take !!

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

9 months ago

You can see all these numbers have moved a little towards 50% relative to the initial odds. The fewer games left (in a tied match), the better for the initial underdog's upset chances. But so far that movement is small. 6 games out of 14 still leaves a lot of chess left to play!

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

9 months ago

Odds after round 5

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

9 months ago

You'll never believe it. If you assume as a prior that the players are equal, then they each have exactly 50% chances to win the currently-tied match! (Maybe other lines of the chart are more interesting 🙃)

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Chess by the Numbers @ChessNumbers

9 months ago

I have no data to say if Gukesh's 55 point Elo edge reflects the playing strength we will see in this match. So make your own assumptions (is the gap bigger, smaller, or maybe you even think "old Ding" will show up and be better?) I'll track these six scenarios round by round.