Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

Former Chief Rates Strategist, @Macro_Hive Former, US Head of Rates and MBS Strategy, Deutsche Bank. Also, Former Freddie Mac, Voya Investments, Bluecrest. Washington DC Joined April 2012

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

9 months ago

Still 4.6 percent chance of no cut this week. Seems like some people are prepared for a surprise!

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

9 months ago

KBR bank ETF barely above the pre GFC level , after 15 years! Banks are obsolete, crypto is in?

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

9 months ago

I wonder why TSLA is massively outperforming the rest of MAG7 since the election day. Some kind of DOGE premium?

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

10 months ago

About half the market is out of its mind!

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

11 months ago

One small shock, like the dock workers' strike, can push inflation trajectory away from what Powell is thinking

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

11 months ago

I am worried about Powells confidence about the glidepath of inflation to the 2 percent target. In reality, it's not so easy.

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

11 months ago

Powell always throws some nuggets at the NABE conference. So did Greenspan, who used to love NABE conferences.

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

12 months ago

Bank stocks are on fire! I think 25bps would have made more sense than 50bps.

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

12 months ago

There was no need to for Fed to keep the market in so much suspense between 50bps and 25bps. Only 2 hours to go, and we are approaching even odds!

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

Market is pricing 34 percent of probably of 50 bps cut in the September meeting and 33 percent probability of 125bps cut by December meeting. Which one is more likely?

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

All the reasons for slower than past transmission of monetary policy, in this cycle, still remain. Specially, household balance still strong and getting stronger. I don't think Sahm Rule will work this time around.

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

Is Sahm Rule real?

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

Biden's debate performance + supreme court decision = 12bps steeper yield curve (for those who like to quantify)

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

10s slowly drifting back higher. I guess the Chair did not consider that CPI data point any more than a data point!

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

The market is pricing more than 20 percent chance of 3 eases by Dec. Does not make a lot of sense!

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

Home Builders ETF pn fire again going into the Fed Meeting.

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

Market pricing more than 70 percent chance of at least one ease by the September meeting. Will the Fed be as trigger happy as the market thinks?

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

Another tailed auction! Not looking good for the bond market.

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Mustafa Chowdhury @ChowdhuryMust

a year ago

I think Beth Hammack is highly qualified for the Cleveland Fed job. But I worry that with so many "market people" running monetary policy in US, we will end up with asset prices going to the moon. Not that it is not already in the stratosphere! @JackFarley96