Convex Capital @ConvexCapital

Long human ingenuity, short hype & fraud. Not investment advice. Joined April 2020

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Prescience Point Capital @PresciencePoint

5 years ago

We are short Enphase Energy Inc. (@Enphase). Our extensive research reveals smoking gun evidence of massive fraud by $ENPH; we believe at least $205m of U.S. revenue has been fabricated and we expect shares to be delisted. Full report: presciencepoint.com/research/resea…

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Convex Capital @ConvexCapital

5 years ago

“for every trade I have on, I should ask myself if, given an unrelated cash windfall, I’d be adding to it right now. If the answer is no, time to exit the trade.” diff.substack.com/p/you-learn-fr…

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MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre

5 years ago

MW is short $GSX because it is a massive fraud – a Zero. GSX’s own user data for 200 paid classes shows patterns indicating at least 80% of the users are fake – they’re bots. muddywatersresearch.com/research/gsx/m…

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Jamie Pastore v9 @JamiePastore9

5 years ago

Really good write-up of how insanely bad the food delivery economy is at—well—almost everything

Matt Levine @matt_levine

5 years ago

Really good write-up of how insanely bad the food delivery economy is at—well—almost everything

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Clark Square Capital @ClarkSquareCap

5 years ago

A great post on position sizing: whatheheckaboom.wordpress.com/2010/10/30/pos…

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Samuel Lee @svrnco

5 years ago

To the extent that value generated a premium coming out of the dotcom bubble and the financial crisis, it could be seen as compensation for providing a form of disaster insurance. If value rallies hard now, it's because the existential risk investors fear doesn't come to pass.

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Convex Capital @ConvexCapital

5 years ago

The preference for growth over value makes a lot of sense in industries being "eaten by software," but here's a strong argument that this preference has spread to sectors where it isn't justified:

Clifford Asness @CliffordAsness

5 years ago

The preference for growth over value makes a lot of sense in industries being "eaten by software," but here's a strong argument that this preference has spread to sectors where it isn't justified:

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Convex Capital @ConvexCapital

5 years ago

This is spot-on (except for the last sentence 😉). There aren’t any more coronavirus surprises left: we’re slowly grinding our way towards herd immunity one way or another. If there’s another crash soon, it will be because of geopolitics, not biology.

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Convex Capital @ConvexCapital

5 years ago

It's unlikely that people have the spare cash right now for a Tether-printing pump-and-dump to work this time around.

Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart

5 years ago

It's unlikely that people have the spare cash right now for a Tether-printing pump-and-dump to work this time around.

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Conor Sen @conorsen

5 years ago

@pearkes If we took the February economy and tacked on the Fed/Congressional policies since then the SPX would be over 4,000.

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Pueo Keffer @pueokeffer

5 years ago

Fresh data....

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Convex Capital @ConvexCapital

5 years ago

Since it needs to be large, it'll need a sizable moat & scalable business. Since it needs to be new, this moat will likely be tech-based, but outside of Big Tech's "kill zone" (so not, eg, AR/VR). Likely sectors: industrial automation, energy (solar/nuclear/storage), biotech.

Patrick Collison @patrickc

5 years ago

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Talbott @talbottzink

5 years ago

Everything up at $AMT...except CapEx. Nice

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Convex Capital @ConvexCapital

5 years ago

A lot of cash on the sidelines still.

Bloomberg Markets @markets

5 years ago

A lot of cash on the sidelines still.

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Jonathan Levene @JdleveneLevene

5 years ago

Must read

Dirty Texas Hedge @HedgeDirty

5 years ago

Must read

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Puru Saxena @saxena_puru

5 years ago

The global macro situation (and near-term hiccups) notwithstanding, the best businesses in ecommerce, fintech/payments and software should reward long-term shareholders + produce market beating returns. These secular trends won't be derailed and if anything, might accelerate.