Is a rate cut enough to revive #housing demand? @benshoemsith_ says high mortgage rates and construction costs continue to weigh on buyers. July’s 9.2-month supply of newly built homes signals #builder caution and market imbalance. bit.ly/4lQ4aYg
“We expect consumer spending to stall as inflation erodes purchasing power in the second half of the year,” suggests @KenKim_1 in his analysis of the latest CPI data. bit.ly/43GmwFh
With tariffs expected to peak at 20% and unemployment rising to 4.7% by year-end, organizations must be prepared. Read #KPMG Chief Economist @DianeSwonk’s biannual economic outlook. #PolicyinMotionbit.ly/4e5e0mM
Russia’s strategic bomber fleet burns!
Drones were lunched from trucks near 4 airfields deep inside Russia.
More than 40 planes destroyed at:
- Olenya Air Base in Murmansk
- Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk
- Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo
- Dyagilevo Air Base Ryazan
Via @ConflictDISP
The US trade deficit widened, imports surged and inflation sticks. What do the Q1 economic numbers mean for your business? Read @DianeSwonk’s analysis of the latest #GDP & #PCE data: bit.ly/3RDolvU
The top 10% of income earners in the US now account for half of all consumer spending, a record high.
(Note: top 10% = households making >$250k).
bilello.blog/newsletter
HOLY SHIT IT'S HAPPENING
AI can now write genomes from scratch.
Arc Institute an NVIDIA just published Evo-2, the largest AI model for biology, trained on 9.3 trillion DNA base pairs spanning the entire tree of life.
it doesn’t just analyze genomes. it creates them
1/
BREAKING:
NASA raises risk of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%. It stood at 2.3% just 2 weeks ago
This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received. These cities are under threat:
🇨🇴 Bogota
🇨🇮 Abidjan
🇳🇬 Lagos
🇸🇩 Khartoum
🇮🇳 Mumbai
🇧🇩 Dhaka
Sovereign defaults are a growing threat. The latest Global Navigator from @KPMG_US looks at the increasing risk of government debt defaults and the potential economic and social impacts. #debt#economybit.ly/4aNIoAF
🇺🇸🇺🇦 "Aid to Ukraine" is really an investment in American manufacturing (updated).
$57.9 billion has gone into the US defense industrial base to date. That will reach well over $80 billion once all funds are obligated.
Top recipient states:
1. Arkansas - $4.7 billion
2.…
The top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up over 37% of the index, the highest concentration we've seen with data going back to 1980.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=iahlYX…
The longest yield curve inversion in history ended two weeks ago with the 10-year yield moving above the 3-month yield. The S&P 500 gained 62% during the inversion, dispelling the myth that inversions are bearish for stocks.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=iahlYX…
The Ratio of Emerging Markets to US Equities is now at an all-time low, breaking below the prior low from March 1999.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=iahlYX…
Powell keeps trying to explain why inflation is not a problem.
The 1-day tick chart of the 10-year yield shows how the market receives this message.
(his message is being rejected)
Breaking: The Fed is expecting higher inflation and fewer rate cuts in 2025 with the Fed Funds Rate ending next year at 3.9%. Higher for longer is the overall message and a pause at the January meeting seems like a high probability bet.
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