Dr Thomas Kevin Swift @DrTKSwift
Senior Economist at ICIS. Former NABE president. Author of “A History of American Business Cycles”. Views are my own. E: [email protected] Charlotte, NC Joined September 2016-
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Something is amiss in the Windy City. The Chicago PMI declined a larger-than-expected 5.6 points to 41.5 in August. This marks the 21st month of a contractionary reading.
If I was limited to one chart to illustrate the state of the US economy this would be it. Industrial production edged down, largely due to weather. Non-farm payrolls edged up, real personal income less transfer payments featured a solid gain, and business sales improved.
Real consumer spending rose an expected 0.3% in July, an improvement from the 0.1% rise in June, and a 0.2% set-back in May. Spending rose sharply for durable goods and also rose for non-durable goods and services. Real consumer spending was up 2.1% y/y. Americans love to shop!
The Kansas City Fed reported that during August its composite index of current conditions was unchanged at 1 in August. Production ticked up from -3 to 0 and the employment index increased modestly from -11 to 0.
Our fourth regional Fed survey for August manufacturing and it was soft. The Richmond Fed reported that Fifth District manufacturing activity remained soft in August. The composite manufacturing index rose to -7 in August from -20 in July. This is still in negative territory.
New homes sales, after rebounding in June, edged down 0.6% to a 652K-unit-pace in July. Sales in the Midwest and South were soft and sales in the West improved. Sales in the Northeast were flat. The inventory of homes for sale also edged down. Inventories remain high.
Our second regional Fed manufacturing survey for August and it was slightly negative. The Philadelphia Fed reported that manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month. The current general activity index fell 16.4 points to a slightly negative -0.3 reading.
US existing home sales rose 2.0% to a 4.01-million-unit pace in July. Sales rose in the Northeast, South, and West but declined in the Midwest. During the month, the inventory of homes for sale rose to 1.55 million units, a 4.6 months’ supply at the current sales pace.
The housing report was mixed with housing surprising to the upside, reaching a 1.43-million-unit pace in July. But the gain was largely centered in multi-family housing. Moreover, building permits declined for a fourth month.
industrial production (IP) eased 0.1% in July, missing expectations of a flat reading but following an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in June. At 104.0% of its 2017 average, total IP in July was 1.4% y/y. Manufacturing output was unchanged after a 0.3% gain in June.
Headline capacity utilization for industry moved down 0.2 points to 77.5% in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. During July, operating rates fell in manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Retail sales rose 0.7% in July and follow a 0.9% gain in June. The largest increases were seen in sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers and furniture & home furniture stores.
Our first regional Fed survey for August manufacturing and it was positive. The New York Fed reported that business activity rose modestly in New York during August with the headline general business conditions index rising 6.4 points to +11.9. New orders and shipments increased.
The consumer price index increased 0.2% in July, a pace right in line with expectations and the same as last month. This follows a 0.3% rise in June, and over the last 12 months, headline CPI increased 2.7% y/y. Shelter prices rose 0.2% during July and energy prices declined.
NFIB reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose a larger than expected 1.7 points to 100.3 in July, its highest in five months. The index remains above its 52-year average of 98.
With a weaker July ISM PMI reading for US manufacturing, the manufacturing situation also continues to be dour elsewhere in the Americas.
The BLS establishment survey showed a 73,000 increase in payrolls, a gain well below expectations. Moreover, the prior two months showed big downwards revisions. Employment continued to trend up in health care, retail trade, finance, and some services sectors.
The BLS household survey showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. Employment in this survey showed a decrease of 260,000 and the number of the unemployed rose by 221,000 in July. At the same time, both labor force participation and the employment-population ratio eased.
The PMIs for Northeast Asia were all negative for July.
The Chicago PMI (conducted by the ISM-Chicago and actually named the Chicago Business Barometer™) rose to 47.1 in July, a gain well above expectations but a reading that is still contractionary.
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