Justin Nelson @JustinDoesMath
Head of Sports Analytics @ The Crowd's Line. Building betting models via crowd-sourcing & ML/AI. Former quant futures PM. MIT: physics & math. From rural Texas. thecrowdsline.ai New York, USA Joined September 2013-
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WHY SHIT NOT WORKING: EPISODE 11
NBA Finals Game 3 Recap 📈 Model was wildly accurate last night 🔥 Overall: 24-10 (71%) 🎯 Average Odds: +164 🔥 Unders: 17-2 (89%) 🎯 Average Odds: +120 Avg Profit: +3.4 units 💰 ROI: +96% 1 of the 10 losses? Haliburton triple double @ +2100. Fell 1 board short!
Here’s the model’s performance by month since going live last season ⬇️ After a disappointing April (+7.4U), we rallied for our 2nd best month of the season in May (+59.1U) 📈 Model’s been consistently good at predicting assist props throughout. +172 units combined L2 seasons!
May 2025 NBA Model Recap 🗓️ Overall, we gained +59.1 units 📈 Most of that 💵 came in Round 2. Conference finals proved challenging Top 3 markets by PnL: 🥇Assists (+15.3u) 🥈Points (+14.7u) 🥉Pts+Ast (+13.8u) For the year, we’re now up +240 units More details in thread 🧵⬇️
This paper shows LLMs internally break down composite tasks. They process components sequentially across layers. Methods 🔧: → Layer-from context-masking selectively blocks in-context example access from a specific layer onward. → This technique reveals sequential subtask…
Sunday NBA Model Recap 🔥 Terrifyingly accurate… again! 🎯 Best wins: ✅ Wallace 5+ Assists (+2090) ✅ Wiggins 3+ Assists (+1440) ✅ Wiggins 15+ PRA (+695) ✅ Braun Under 0.5 Blocks (+138) Avg Profit: +10.6 units 📈 ROI: +108% 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
Wednesday NBA Recap 🔥 Top 20 Picks: 19-1 (95%)‼️ Average Odds? +125😏 Best Wins💰 ✅ Podz 25+ PA (+1200) ✅ McBride 3+ Assists (+671) ✅ Butler UNDER Everything (+3.1U) Avg Profit: +14.6 units 📈 ROI: +96% 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰 Next Stop 📲 thecrowdsline.ai/dashboard/nba/…
Absolutely crushing it 👏
Absolutely crushing it 👏 https://t.co/MSds82pyBr
If you aren't following @theCrowdsLineAI you're missing out on free and easy 1st half winners like this Also hit the alt for +255!! 👏
If you aren't following @theCrowdsLineAI you're missing out on free and easy 1st half winners like this Also hit the alt for +255!! 👏 https://t.co/tfLV05zPDS
Ready to have your mind blown?🤯 See the model’s win percentage by odds range this NBA season: 💎 Sample size: 34,172 total picks 💎 Profitability: Everywhere✅ Seriously — If 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘭 on the street can beat these results across 34K+ picks — let us know‼️
As we all know by now, reasoning models often generate longer responses, which raises compute costs. Now, this new paper (arxiv.org/abs/2504.05185) shows that this behavior comes from the RL training process, not from an actual need for long answers for better accuracy. The RL…
Sunday Recap 🔥 Shook the books’ pockets.. again! 🤑 4th straight day, we earned: 💰 6+ units of profit 📈 20%+ ROI Top 30 Picks went 19-11 (63%) 🔮 Top Returning Bet: ✅ Steven Adams 10+ Boards (+800) Caps off our best week of the year Next stop 📲 thecrowdsline.ai/dashboard/nba/…
Monday Model Recap 🔥 Bane stole the show! ✅ Triple Double (+4083) ✅ Double Double (+597) ✅ 10+ Assists (+973) Honorable mention… ✅ Zach Edey to sink a Three (+342) Average PnL +4.1% 📈 ROI +30% Next stop 📲 thecrowdsline.ai/dashboard/nba/…
This is interesting as a first large diffusion-based LLM. Most of the LLMs you've been seeing are ~clones as far as the core modeling approach goes. They're all trained "autoregressively", i.e. predicting tokens from left to right. Diffusion is different - it doesn't go left to…
This is interesting as a first large diffusion-based LLM. Most of the LLMs you've been seeing are ~clones as far as the core modeling approach goes. They're all trained "autoregressively", i.e. predicting tokens from left to right. Diffusion is different - it doesn't go left to…
Our paper "Function-Space Learning Rates" is on arXiv! We give an efficient way to estimate the magnitude of changes to NN outputs caused by a particular weight update. We analyse optimiser dynamics in function space, and enable hyperparameter transfer with our scheme FLeRM! 🧵👇
New from @arcinstitute: Evo 2, the largest (by training compute) biology ML model ever, and one of the largest-ever open source ML models in any category. Evo 2 is a foundation model trained on 9T DNA base pairs that learns a lot of fundamental details about life. A few examples…
After 6+ months in the making and burning over a year of GPU compute time, we're super excited to finally release the "Ultra-Scale Playbook" Check it out here: hf.co/spaces/nanotro… A free, open-source, book to learn everything about 5D parallelism, ZeRO, fast CUDA kernels,…
New open source reasoning model! Huginn-3.5B reasons implicitly in latent space 🧠 Unlike O1 and R1, latent reasoning doesn’t need special chain-of-thought training data, and doesn't produce extra CoT tokens at test time. We trained on 800B tokens 👇
Ok, so I can finally talk about this! We spent the last year (actually a bit longer) training an LLM with recurrent depth at scale. The model has an internal latent space in which it can adaptively spend more compute to think longer. I think the tech report ...🐦⬛
Boom! We cracked it! Today we are introducing Boomless Cruise—supersonic flights up to 50% faster with no audible sonic boom. We quietly (har har) demo'd this on XB-1's first supersonic flight—three times actually. 🧵👇
The Senior Risk Manag... @salr_nyc
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Richard McElreath �... @rlmcelreath
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CommodityCycles🇺�... @Ygalorqor48792
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Juice Reel @juice_reel
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BaoBetting👨🔬... @BaoBetting
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Victory Vault @Victory_Vault_
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Corey Hoffstein 🏴�... @choffstein
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent
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Rob Carver @investingidiocy
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Alf @MacroAlf
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Jessica Nutt @JessicaNutt96
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Andrej Karpathy @karpathy
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
194K Followers 762 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFGM & $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
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Dow @mark_dow
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the ghost of groditi�... @GRoditiD
20K Followers 569 Following Personal opinions of Guillermo Roditi Dominguez. hates: prison industrial complex. ❤️: boomercoding, water infra. he/him
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2K Followers 1K Following Lever it, just a little bit. Vol. 4x Dad. Identify as a fitter, slightly younger version of myself. Guitar, music, peppers and hot sauce.
Macro “KING LEEROY�... @MacroTactical
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François Chollet @fchollet
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Bankroll U @the_bankrollu
1K Followers 3K Following Bankroll U 🏈 Sportsbook Simulator 🏀 Level-Up Your Sports Betting Skills ⚾️ Bet with Virtual Funds 🥅 Earn Real Cash Payouts 💰#sportsbetting #nfl #nba #mlb 🔥
Chelly @chellgod
168K Followers 1K Following Partnered Streamer 🎮• Sabres • Newcastle • Raiders • Penn State • #ChellyGang
The Home of FAIR PLAY... @FanaticsBook
181K Followers 630 Following Winning Hits Different Here. Need support? 👉 @FBG_Support Must be 21+ and in an eligible state. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
FanDuel Sportsbook @FDSportsbook
427K Followers 1K Following America's #1 Sportsbook! 21+ in select states (18+ in DC, KY, WY). Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER / visit https://t.co/5xElVVARkW. Help: DM @fanduel_support
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Arielle (Ari) Chamber... @ariivory
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577 Followers 194 Following PhD at @Mila_Quebec/ Previously student in Maths and theoretical Physics at @ENS_ULM
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Garrett @DFS_Gairey
559 Followers 739 Following DFS Player | NBA, WNBA, NFL, CFB advice | DM me with any questions! | Rams, USC, Angels, Lakers
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