Michael @MikeMacroM
The world is full of opinions. Mine just happens to be one of them. Occasional musings about life, Tech & the world of macro. History is always an analogue. London Joined June 2015-
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“People will forget what you said. People will forget what you did. But people will never forget how you made them feel" - Maya Angelou
I maintain you guys do not understand the potential for permanent market structure changes due to IBKR/HOOD/Others. Runaway inflation + easy access to spec instruments = equities (at the least) and gambling (look at the option volumes soar) becomes a secular bid on risk coming…
This. And we’re only just getting started. Mix in macro (cheap credit) and a world that is continuously in search for yield because of global currency debasement, $HOOD is at the apex of this secular mega trend.
This. And we’re only just getting started. Mix in macro (cheap credit) and a world that is continuously in search for yield because of global currency debasement, $HOOD is at the apex of this secular mega trend.
CAD already starting the week weak. Majors go much higher against CAD is my base case. @BobEUnlimited posted a very good macro note on Canada a couple of weeks back. Weak GDP print last friday was the nail in the coffin: bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/tiff-dithers…
CAD already starting the week weak. Majors go much higher against CAD is my base case. @BobEUnlimited posted a very good macro note on Canada a couple of weeks back. Weak GDP print last friday was the nail in the coffin: bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/tiff-dithers…
This
Very good read! Highly recommend
The AI buildout story is very much in the 2nd phase (Infrastructure - cooling, data centres, generators etc)…phase 3 will be about end user applications (embodied AI - humanoids, Robotaxis etc). See analogues to the telecom buildout. We’ve not seen this narrative reflected in…
Weakness in AUD last week likely driven by positioning going into RBA Rate Decision and Press Conference on Tuesday. Trimmed mean inflation rate for Australia in August (year-ended) was 2.6 % - right in the middle of the RBA mandate. Signs of accelerating growth, Copper breaking…
The Dollar is up 2% from its low 10 days ago (lhs). What's powering that is a big rise in rate differentials (rhs), as markets scale back expectations for Fed easing relative to other central banks. The hurdle for the Dollar to fall is very high. It'll take outright recession...
Many retail traders stop at Technical analysis in FX and constantly wonder why they can never figure out WHY the market moves against them. An understanding of macro and how actors behave within this enables you to determine WHERE price is likely headed. Note the word "likely"...…
Widening US2Y vs UK/EZ = market pricing stronger US growth + sticky inflation therefore higher probability of fewer Fed cuts going forwards. If Core PCE @ GMT aligns with jobs data released yday (i.e in-line or above expectations), USD stays bid vs EUR & GBP. Could cool next…
"Never, ever invest in the present. ... You have to visualise the situation 18 months from now, and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be, not where it is today" - Stan Druckenmiller
Functionally a rates story, framed around emerging inflation risk (FED policy stance of cutting into rising inflation) + positioning too, hence the repricing across risk assets (see tweet below). And no, I don’t think the top is in yet. Stronger than expected labour prints are a…
Still think the DXY bid post-FOMC last week was 1) Positioning / profit taking and 2) Rate differential spike due to fewer cuts priced on SOFR into next year due to emerging inflation risk. Neutral view on DXY for now, but watching PMI prints tomorrow...any softness in EUR & GBP…
fewer cuts because the economy is reaccelerating is long term bullish i hope that helps
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