Noble Predictive Insights @NoblePredictive
Strategic Research | Trusted Data | Actionable Insights noblepredictiveinsights.com Phoenix, AZ Joined December 2016-
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Robson Rewrites the 2022 Playbook as She Opens with an Early Lead in Arizona GOP Primary Trump’s Endorsement Edges Robson Ahead of Biggs NEW DATA ON AZ GOP GOV RACE: hubs.ly/Q03G6DzH0
"Trump was elected on two issues: immigration and the economy. Arizona voters like what they’ve seen from Trump when it comes to immigration. But voters don’t think he’s solved their economic problems yet. Right now, that’s the GOP’s biggest political weakness." - @MikePNoble…
More than half of Arizona voters say Trump is doing a poor job on inflation (55%) and affordable housing (58%). On voters’ other top issues, healthcare and education, majorities are dissatisfied with Trump’s performance (61% and 56%, respectively). These gaps between voter…
Arizona voters have also made their views clear on how Trump, in particular, is handling the most important issues of the day. We followed up with voters, asking them how Trump was handling the issues they saw as most important. Trump did well on security issues – such as…
“Everyone, regardless of their party, cares about cost issues. When people select inflation, housing, healthcare, and related issues, they’re telling us they’re still feeling the pain of high prices. Trump hasn’t solved that. There is some good news here for Trump. In a border…
Voter concerns center on bread-and-butter economic issues that cut across traditional partisan divides. Inflation leads voter priorities at 46%, followed closely by affordable housing at 43% and immigration at 42%. Full release: hubs.ly/Q03qNT7_0
"Arizona Democrats have cracked the code on something many politicians struggle with: being more popular than their party. Hobbs, Kelly, and Gallego have built personal brands that transcend partisan labels, and that's political gold in a swing state." - @MikePNoble Full…
While Republicans maintain structural advantages, individual Democratic leaders are personally well-regarded. Governor Katie Hobbs holds a net +9 job approval rating – a 3-point increase from February – and a net +13 favorability score. Sen. Mark Kelly continues to benefit from…
“This favorability gap – particularly between Trump-first and Party-first Republicans – is a warning sign for the GOP. In midterm elections, the party in power typically fails to show up – often because one wing of the party gets complacent or loses morale. Low propensity MAGA…
Republicans have overall strong favorability of Trump (net +68). Within his party, Trump-first Republicans remain nearly unanimous in their support with 96% viewing him favorably, while party-first Republicans are more measured at 77% favorable. This 19-point gap within the…
President Trump remains a deeply divisive figure in Arizona. His job approval rating sits underwater at -5%, with 46% approving and 51% disapproving of his job. In February, his rating was overall positive, with 51% approving and 48% disapproving. His favorability rating is now…
“Trump won Arizona by roughly 6 points in 2024 while winning the popular vote by just under 2 points. So Trump and the GOP have a little bit more of a cushion here than they do elsewhere. They can lose a couple points of support and still end up with a low-to-mid single-digit…
Arizona is still extremely light red. Republicans currently hold a slight lead on a generic congressional ballot by 2 points, with 40% support, and are perceived as more capable of running the state by 4 points. The state was even more split in February, when Republicans led by 3…
Arizona is politically polarized: exactly 50% of voters say the state is headed in the right direction, while the other half believe it's on the wrong track – statistically equal to the February AZPOP. While some groups express cautious optimism, others remain skeptical.…
“Unlike politicians, voters aren’t locked into warring camps on every single issue. Voters agree with Democrats that voting should be easy for everyone who is eligible. They also agree with Republicans that elections should be secure, and that basic security measures are not a…
The partisan breakdown reveals different priorities within shared support. More or less, the parties are aligned on voter ID, but there are differences in the type of reform wanted: Republicans favor security • Photo ID (74%) • SS#/DL# (45%) • Election Day holiday (45%)…
“These numbers show a practical electorate. People want secure elections, but they also want to know how much it’ll cost them.” - @MikePNoble Full release: hubs.ly/Q03qhNmz0
Republicans show strong support across the board, with 86% backing additional security features, including 56% willing to support them regardless of cost and 30% supporting the measure only if the cost is lower. Among Democrats, 66% express support, but they are more…
A strong majority of Arizonans (74%) support adding security features to ballots, but that support declines depending on the financial burden. Among supporters, 41% of Arizonans support better security features, even at a higher cost, but one-third (33%) support better security…
“You can tell Republicans are winning on this issue in Arizona by looking at which ideas are contentious. The GOP has already won the war over whether ICE should deport undocumented immigrants who commit major crimes. If Republicans and Democrats are arguing about whether they…
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