Nate Silver @NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, August 13: https://t.co/WeCLEOd4Be New York Joined August 2008-
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Okay that was a pretty choppy performance from the Nuggets tbh but nevertheless a very good crowd and a fun way to spend an unexpected overnight layover in Denver.
This is my rare foray into hardcore nerd polling discourse, but @MonmouthPoll are a bunch of cowards for not publishing head to head numbers and instead using this weird workaround to avoid accountability/criticism.
This is my rare foray into hardcore nerd polling discourse, but @MonmouthPoll are a bunch of cowards for not publishing head to head numbers and instead using this weird workaround to avoid accountability/criticism. https://t.co/6mEXdKpM93
OK, pretty good subscriber questions newsletter today. Per @Polymarket, there's an 81% chance that Trump is a convinced felon by the time of the election. Does that mean polls are worthless? natesilver.net/p/sbsq-8-trump…
Ivy League students might plausibly be a leading indicator for *elite* sentiment. But to a first approximation, they are irrelevant to forecasting popular sentiment. And to a second approximation, they are a contrary indicator.
The protests involve small numbers of people and are taking place at some of the most privileged and "bubble-ish" places in the entire world. It's cool to be interested in them - I'm interested in them! ' - but this is the opposite of a mass populist movement.
The protests involve small numbers of people and are taking place at some of the most privileged and "bubble-ish" places in the entire world. It's cool to be interested in them - I'm interested in them! ' - but this is the opposite of a mass populist movement.
If you could literally measure Hustle Points based on player tracking data I think the Knicks would seriously be like +4 per 100 possessions, maybe half that based on offensive rebounding.
If you could literally measure Hustle Points based on player tracking data I think the Knicks would seriously be like +4 per 100 possessions, maybe half that based on offensive rebounding.
Folks, you know how TSA security now they have those four luggage trey slots labeled 1, 2, 3, 4? Just take the first available slot if one remains open for more than a couple seconds. Don't worry about cutting in line; you're speeding up throughput vs. letting slots go idle.
This is probably right. Most people don't form political opinions through deep examination of the issues or reasoning from first principles. It's more like picking some particular fashion label or way of dressing. Especially for younger people, who face more peer pressure.
This is probably right. Most people don't form political opinions through deep examination of the issues or reasoning from first principles. It's more like picking some particular fashion label or way of dressing. Especially for younger people, who face more peer pressure.
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
542K Followers 2K Following Slow Boring, cohosting https://t.co/wxUj3JFSFf, Bloomberg columnistDave Wasserman @Redistrict
642K Followers 1K Following Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.David Weigel @daveweigel
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321K Followers 1K Following Writes about economics, posts about rabbits. For serious opinions/analysis, read my blog: https://t.co/KfUxUlCYPzDavid Weigel @daveweigel
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88K Followers 907 Following I write about genetics, 'metrics, and demographics. Read my long-form writing at https://t.co/8hgA4nNS2A.@NateSilver538 In 2011, Dale & Kruger argued pretty convincingly that the *current* return to attending a top school is ~zero if you measure properly. So I agree with your advice. But I’m not sure what forecast follows from it exactly. nber.org/papers/w17159
I’ve had several conversations with people who do a lot of hiring over the last few weeks. Obviously no one is going to simply disqualify a candidate for attending an Ivy League, but the consistent message is that it no longer offers a significant advantage.
If you still have a college decision to make, would strongly reiterate this advice. The perceived value of an Ivy League degree is going to go down a lot. natesilver.net/p/go-to-a-stat…
@cover81 @jdcmedlock @NateSilver538 @BillAckman We’re over a million right now. I’m just getting tired of updating lol
The basketball gods Game 2'd the Knicks in Game 5
@jdcmedlock @NateSilver538 @BillAckman Update on the @BillAckman challenge. My team has highly credible commitments of $750,000 to bet against Ackman’s claim that a majority of Jewish voters will vote for Trump in November. Does Mr. Ackman have the honor to put up real $ or is he full of hot air?
Lots of scientific and popular articles on misinformation feature some variation on "misinformation is a growing problem" or "we are living through a misinformation age" and yet do not provide any evidence or even arguments in defence of these claims.
I’m assembling a team. @jdcmedlock @NateSilver538
What is Joe Biden's plan for when Nikola Jokic, Nikola Jovic, and Nikola Topic are all in the NBA next year? How are we supposed to tell our kids about this?
My office was right by the encampment, and I cannot understand how it interferes with exams. It’s that little red circle. Not a single notable the protest in the history of modern protest would meet the requirements of “acceptable” protest from many past free speech advocates.
One cannot disrupt the ability of one's fellow students to take exams or graduate with impunity. It's common courtesy and common sense. Such imposition of costs on one's fellows is not free expression.
@NateSilver538 I see that as more an explanation of why primary electorates don’t pursue median voter strategies than a basis for strategic defections.
Suns were "championship or bust," so they did hit one of their two goals.
@NateSilver538 I think, having spent a lot of time studying social movements and teaching them years ago, that this is something between an elite bubble and a mass populist movement. There may be a cap on it given no direct US involvment, but trend is now upward; we’ll where the level settles.
We all have our draft hits and misses but I'm proud to stand on this Brunson take from 2018. Blatantly obvious baller who was destined to last a long time in the NBA, yet the pre-draft process overshadowed an all-time college career and idiotically led to him going 33rd overall.
@NateSilver538 Dont like the superficial label, but young people are certainly more idealistic and quixotic
Obviously this is not the point, but I guess streaming has kind of made it so that some young people don’t really know what cable is…
NOW: hundreds (cannot get a count yet) of protesters outside White House correspondents dinner yelling “shame!” as media and others enter. They are asking people entering to boycott the dinner as a statement about/opposing Israel.
If you drink drip coffee you should be allowed to use the carpool lane, TSA pre-check, handicapped parking spaces, etc, as a make-good for all of your precious time that is wasted by others — and as a reward for being so thoughtful about others’ time.
I would do it for free. Exactly one of us is pricing correctly.
You'd have to pay me like $20m a year to be a US Senator.
I’ll do the job for 250k and free housing. Listen up Columbia, Yale, you can save a bundle by hiring me!
You'd have to pay me like $80m a year to be the president of an Ivy League university.
Life rule that often applies to football: Any time someone says "that's a great problem to have" it's actually a bad problem to have.
Fontenot on Penix: If he sits for four or five years, that’s a great problem to have because we’re doing so well at that position. #Falcons