Passive Parabellum @PParabellumJW
The source for news, videos, interviews, and academic papers detailing how passive investing is distorting the stock market. PassiveParabellum.com New York City Joined August 2023-
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The new unemployment insurance in 2024.
The new unemployment insurance in 2024.
Good explainer on why jobless claims remain so low despite several other indicators of labor market deterioration. Also @JeffWeniger points out that many would-be unemployment recipients are driving for Uber and Doordash so they do not claim unemployment benefits.
Good explainer on why jobless claims remain so low despite several other indicators of labor market deterioration. Also @JeffWeniger points out that many would-be unemployment recipients are driving for Uber and Doordash so they do not claim unemployment benefits.
Hugely important. @EPBResearch has been brilliant in explaining how the cyclical economy drives the economic cycle. If housing-related employment plummets, it will trigger a recession and mass layoffs elsewhere.
Hugely important. @EPBResearch has been brilliant in explaining how the cyclical economy drives the economic cycle. If housing-related employment plummets, it will trigger a recession and mass layoffs elsewhere.
The S&P 500 is even more expensive than it looks because you are taking high profit margins and applying a 20+ EPS multiple to corporate profits. If both sales and margins crater, look out. Not that passive will care until end investors panic.
The S&P 500 is even more expensive than it looks because you are taking high profit margins and applying a 20+ EPS multiple to corporate profits. If both sales and margins crater, look out. Not that passive will care until end investors panic.
Real personal income ex govt transfer payments is not looking healthy at all. The consumer is suffering and has been surviving by using credit cards and buy-now-pay-later to get by.
Real personal income ex govt transfer payments is not looking healthy at all. The consumer is suffering and has been surviving by using credit cards and buy-now-pay-later to get by.
Hard to fit new IPOs into a portfolio when more and more investors are 100% indexed. Bad for capital formation and for future innovation and prosperity.
Hard to fit new IPOs into a portfolio when more and more investors are 100% indexed. Bad for capital formation and for future innovation and prosperity.
Striking chart. The U.S. economy does not look as strong as the pundits claim. As corporate profitability takes a hit, layoffs will accelerate. This means fewer white collar workers funneling their salaries into index fund 401(k) accounts.
Striking chart. The U.S. economy does not look as strong as the pundits claim. As corporate profitability takes a hit, layoffs will accelerate. This means fewer white collar workers funneling their salaries into index fund 401(k) accounts.
So the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSMX) had negative cash from redemptions in February. Instead of selling its holdings, it borrowed money to give to these redeeming mutual fund investors. Vanguard is making a levered bet on inflows and the stock market. Tell me again why…
So the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSMX) had negative cash from redemptions in February. Instead of selling its holdings, it borrowed money to give to these redeeming mutual fund investors. Vanguard is making a levered bet on inflows and the stock market. Tell me again why…
Index funds hold 50 bps (0.5%) of their portfolios in cash on average. With passive now almost 50% of the U.S. stock market and growing share steadily, we are witnessing an enormous phase transition from active portfolios that hold several 100 bps of cash to passive portfolios…
Index funds hold 50 bps (0.5%) of their portfolios in cash on average. With passive now almost 50% of the U.S. stock market and growing share steadily, we are witnessing an enormous phase transition from active portfolios that hold several 100 bps of cash to passive portfolios…
No surprise the Birth/Death model the BLS using is a dumpster fire to the 10th power. Instead of the 500,000 jobs it claimed were created, there were zero jobs created. Watch those passive flows into (and perhaps soon out of) index funds!
No surprise the Birth/Death model the BLS using is a dumpster fire to the 10th power. Instead of the 500,000 jobs it claimed were created, there were zero jobs created. Watch those passive flows into (and perhaps soon out of) index funds!
Is it only a matter of time before more consumers get cut off from credit and retail sales stumble?
Is it only a matter of time before more consumers get cut off from credit and retail sales stumble?
FHA delinquencies due to unemployment are the highest in a decade but jobless claims and the unemployment rate are low. Perhaps the BLS is not telling us the full story. 🤔
FHA delinquencies due to unemployment are the highest in a decade but jobless claims and the unemployment rate are low. Perhaps the BLS is not telling us the full story. 🤔
As long as Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street keep buying, that valuation will stay elevated, although active holders appear to be bailing.
As long as Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street keep buying, that valuation will stay elevated, although active holders appear to be bailing.
As Upton Sinclair said, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Therefore, it's not surprising that Barry Ritholtz pretends passive investing isn't destroying stock market efficiency: passiveparabellum.com/mike-green-edu…
Another win for the expert economist class.
Another win for the expert economist class.
And stick to your passive allocation models. Seriously, what will the next Wall Street movie look like? A bunch of bros standing around watching their indexed portfolios and twiddling their thumbs?
And stick to your passive allocation models. Seriously, what will the next Wall Street movie look like? A bunch of bros standing around watching their indexed portfolios and twiddling their thumbs?
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@PParabellumJW @profplum99 You are going to be very disappointed in our Masters in Business episode...
The pattern emerging makes it evident US income tax refund season gave spending that last boost. Now what? @Mastercard lowered its revenue-growth forecast for 2024 and showed a slowdown in volume growth for April compared to stronger growth in the first quarter. @MarketWatch
@BaldingsWorld @ktowninthehouse This guy is probably the smartest if I'm second. On debt cancellation, it's already done. Just an accounting entry at this point. No different than "Treasury Shares" that have been bought back in a corporation.
What just happened to construction jobs?
Wow. The job openings rate for the Construction industry tanked in March ... largest 1-month drop on record
@PParabellumJW Retail sales growth has slowed, but really it’s the mix shift towards needs vs wants that has buoyed spending. Matter of time but I don’t expect spending to really roll over until unemployment picks up.
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW Yes we do. We want housing to fall by maybe half, office building fall by half, retail strip centers sell at a 10, not a 5 cap. The wealth effect that has enriched the boomers must be reversed.
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW where have prices gone down ?
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW How else are we cutting out the buying competition to the large hedges? So many are committed in their annual plans to acquire thousands, if not tens of thousands of SFH to create permanent rentals. Laying out the red carpet for them.
@PParabellumJW @profplum99 Older generations wouldn't be hurt by home price decline. Unless they are doing reverse mortgages/tapping equity, price of your home doesn't matter. But Americans are OBSESSED with it because it's the grand majority of their (paper) wealth. US policy is paper wealth + austerity.
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW In Texas there has been a 200% to 300% increase on houses prices since 2019. Why would we not want those prices to come down to reasonable levels?
@GRomePow @profplum99 @PParabellumJW Homes will become more affordable. Home prices in some markets have gone down 15-20% with more to come. Private equity rental ZIRP model will break and they will be forced to dump their 7-9 million home inventory.
@PParabellumJW @profplum99 Imagine you get $100 for doing nothing and being upset it goes to $50.
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW So that 400sqft condo in Toronto should cost $800k? Ok fine I'll buy one 🤝
@PParabellumJW @profplum99 I don't understand this view that prices falling is so catastrophic. If prices fall, so what? People still have extremely low (or no) payments. Their paper wealth takes a hit and the tradeoff is families can actually afford housing again. Seems like a good tradeoff
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW housings affordability means salaries? Where can we see that wages not going up?
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW How do you have affordability gain again with the current asset gap at play. Low rates, housing speculation rises again. (I’m from BC Canada and it’s actually insane here. I guess our population rise is in play as well.)
@profplum99 @PParabellumJW We want to see prices decline and affordability to go up while the economy runs ideal.
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