Reflexive FCF @ReflexiveFCF
Perspective Investing *Not Investment Advice* Chicago, IL Joined November 2022-
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Lululemon just admitted they've been solving the wrong problem for the past year Q1 2024: “In our women’s business, we had some missed opportunities really, in our color palette, in particular in some of key categories such as our legging business, where we didn’t have enough…
Chip Wilson $LULU bear thesis playing out in real time. "Lululemon is losing its premium position to athletic brands like Alo and Vuori... It's basically the Gap from 1998." - @ChipYVR (-14% AH, new 6 year low)
Chip Wilson $LULU bear thesis playing out in real time. "Lululemon is losing its premium position to athletic brands like Alo and Vuori... It's basically the Gap from 1998." - @ChipYVR (-14% AH, new 6 year low)
$ASO 2Q25 Immediate Call Postmortem Is this really the second quarter in a row where they miss earnings but increase the guidance range? Even that is kind of a mess as they lowered adjusted net income on the high end while raising adjusted EPS (likely due to share repurchases…
Where are the Vegas vacations? JPM
I’m not going to write it up, because I focus on small caps and sometimes a midcap, but Hormel $HRL has room to double if their cost saving initiatives are successful, they have 59 years of dividend growth they don’t want to screw up, and the current yield is 4.56%.
The ultimate state for a luxury brand is when you’ve perfectly managed affinity and scarcity so that new goods at MSRP are worth more on the secondary market right away This achieves so many things. 1) it assures demand because there in no financial downside. Usually brands…
This is going to be my last post for awhile on start-up funds. Being able to justify high fees is rare, so the most likely outcome for a start-up is always failure. But there are other outcomes too. A brief 🧵 on realistic expectations.
$GAP's problems with Athleta funny in one specific way. Alo and Vuori both sub $2 billion rev so they not reason why entire athletic apparel industry challenged. Store growth not same as comp growth. And both private co's already need int'l for growth. x.com/MattJMcClintoc…
$GAP's problems with Athleta funny in one specific way. Alo and Vuori both sub $2 billion rev so they not reason why entire athletic apparel industry challenged. Store growth not same as comp growth. And both private co's already need int'l for growth. x.com/MattJMcClintoc…
Add $ULTA to list. Comp highest in 2 years at +6.7% & vs 2.9% in prior Q. Chunky 90bp spike in gross margin. New CEO had way lowballed targets but strong outlook anyway. Sephora-Kohls hit fading. Another US retailer seeing strength & lifting guide. $EL $LRLCY $XLY $XLF $XRT
Add $ULTA to list. Comp highest in 2 years at +6.7% & vs 2.9% in prior Q. Chunky 90bp spike in gross margin. New CEO had way lowballed targets but strong outlook anyway. Sephora-Kohls hit fading. Another US retailer seeing strength & lifting guide. $EL $LRLCY $XLY $XLF $XRT
Awesome chart from @MichaelKantro offering some much-needed perspective on the torrid rally from the April 8th low....@dailychartbook
I analyzed over 200 M&A deals in APPAREL from the last TEN YEARS Why? To give YOU the roadmap on what it takes to sell your brand to a strategic buyer, and to who & for how much Let's get into it👇
I don't know what Junior needs to read this But the price is where the business is. I want to know where the business is going. What % prob you think it'll go there, and what price it would be if it did. You can skip a lot if you just focus on that
I’ll be repetitive because some of you haven’t been following along. A decoupling is the likely outcome but there are other possible scenarios. Scenario B: The pain involved proves too great forcing the admin to once again kick the can down the road. Pain in the form of…
for jr/mid-level analysts, or IB/PE going into L/S equity, or "outsiders" trying to get a seat...I pulled together a handful of "live" investment pitches from back when I was interviewing for HF analyst roles...there is a lot in here that may be of use to you, take what you need.
How Bloomberg is reducing risk of LLM hallucinations: 1. Get the ground truth via RAG 2. Send the request with the ground truth to Claude (the most reliable model, OpenAI is for more 'relaxed' stuff) Interview with manager on Tegus:
Several macro points I have been thinking about as we move out of Jackson Hole and toward the Sept FOMC meeting 🧵 1) Powell is explicitly misunderstanding or reframing the actual data with the same “transitory” lens he used in 2021. There is no such thing as “one-time price…
Goldman report saying little to no improvement in top closed models since GPT-4 as a key takeaway from meeting with Venture Capitalists.
Fed easing & forward earnings. Still in a good place.
Below is the one pager I would give my junior analysts back in the day (pod model) x.com/S_curvecap/sta…
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