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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice... Joined March 2009
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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

4 days ago

Another gem of a non-answer from new Starbucks CEO to why he was so gung ho barely six months ago. To be fair, in this case, he was probably boxed into giving aggressive guidance as part of his hiring process courtesy Howard Schultz $SBUX

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

4 days ago

In response to this perfectly reasonable question about weak exit rate given supposedly blockbuster product & high ticket despite 'cautious' consumer', you get this nonsense answer from Starbucks CEO. $SBUX deserves shellacking based on this response alone.

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

4 days ago

Estee Q includes modest sales guide-down & (as usual) not guiding up despite big earnings beat. That said main takeaway is jump in skincare, which bodes well. Sector boom in fragrance & $EL lack of presence has magnified weakness vs L'Oreal & LVMH. $LRLCY $LVMUY

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

5 days ago

$AMZN US retail grew +13%, up 10% or more for eighth straight Q, remarkable given how mature it should be at home. 3P +16% = underlying growth even faster. And gains in services also helped International post its first profit since the middle of 2021.

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

5 days ago

$AMZN US retail grew +13%, up 10% or more for eighth straight Q, remarkable given how mature it should be at home. 3P +16% = underlying growth even faster. And gains in services also helped International post its first profit since the middle of 2021.

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

5 days ago

Amazon Q is super powerful in showing how services (3P, ads, Prime) growth is transforming $AMZN financially. Inventory -9% despite sales +13%, operating margin above 10% for first time ever & free cash flow soaring. Wow.🔥🔥🔥

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

5 days ago

These charts for each of LVMH, Richemont & Kering show shopping spree owners of top 3 luxury conglomerates have been on. But sobering to remember for all that, Cartier at $CFRUY, LV-Dior at $LVMUY & Gucci at $PPRUY still account for 80%+ of their valuations.

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Quartr @Quartr_App

a week ago

These charts for each of LVMH, Richemont & Kering show shopping spree owners of top 3 luxury conglomerates have been on. But sobering to remember for all that, Cartier at $CFRUY, LV-Dior at $LVMUY & Gucci at $PPRUY still account for 80%+ of their valuations.

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

5 days ago

💯. Watch what folks do not what they say…

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Capital EdgeNY/CT @CapitalEdgeNY

5 days ago

💯. Watch what folks do not what they say…

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

5 days ago

Have to say 10% pricing at Coke reads like those Covid reports when all staples were taking unbelievable pricing. But important point is volume isn't tanking in response. Some brands are strong enough to still see low price elasticity. $KO $CL $MCD $PEP $UL $XLP $WMT

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

5 days ago

On day its largest customer McDonalds posts disappointing Q, Coke smashes expectations with very strong pricing a la Colgate. And volume doesn't flinch. This is a strong read on the health of the consumer everywhere. $KO $MCD $CL $XLP $XLY

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

a week ago

As remarkable, sizeable margin expansion everywhere at Colgate, including Europe. Reminder that the big pricing staples have taken (of course $CL is still taking it) is enough to fund an increase in promos & still drive margin expansion. $PEP $KO $PG $UL $XLP

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

a week ago

As remarkable, sizeable margin expansion everywhere at Colgate, including Europe. Reminder that the big pricing staples have taken (of course $CL is still taking it) is enough to fund an increase in promos & still drive margin expansion. $PEP $KO $PG $UL $XLP https://t.co/M7L12YnBTY

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

a week ago

Sparkling Q at Colgate. After a long time, shows why $CL has long enjoyed a premium multiple. Very strong pricing yes but volume up everywhere bar Asia. And like Unilever & Nestle, for all the macro handwringing Europe is doing just fine. $UL $PG $PEP $MCD $PVH

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

a week ago

$GOOGL highlight: record-high margin of 32.5%, with advertising alone at 40%. Efficiency focus in view: employees down 5% to 180K & TAC at 21% of ad revenue at new low despite acceleration in ads. Statement of intent with evidence. Nice offset to AI gloom.

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

a week ago

Google ad revenues accelerated for fifth straight Q to +13%, on Search & Youtube. Youtube hit 20%+ growth for first time since 2022. Remarkable for $GOOGL scale & for a supposed AI victim. Consumer habits are a lot stickier than most think $META $AMZN

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

a week ago

Unilever & Nestle paint picture of slowing staples pricing after blockbuster Covid rises. Consumer generally holding up as volume responds positively. $NSRGY has US hiccup but emerging markets solid as (surprisingly for both) is Europe. $XLP $UL $PG $KO $PEP

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

a week ago

Hermes posts highest growth in luxury this Q, remarkable for business of this size. Sales +17% on tough comp, up 10%+ digit in all geographies including US & +20% in leather. Leagues ahead of peers. Why stock is where it is. 🔥🔥 $HESAY $LVMUY $CFRUY $PPRUY

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

2 weeks ago

Luxury growth is normalising - torrid pace post Covid was unsustainable. But differential between performers & also-rans is stark. Lapping huge Covid pricing, sales up mid to high single digit is impressive let alone 10%+. $PRDSY $BURBY $PPRUY $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $CPRI

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

2 weeks ago

Luxury growth is normalising - torrid pace post Covid was unsustainable. But differential between performers & also-rans is stark. Lapping huge Covid pricing, sales up mid to high single digit is impressive let alone 10%+. $PRDSY $BURBY $PPRUY $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $CPRI

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

2 weeks ago

Not just Prada making mincemeat of Kering's 'macro' sky is falling view. Moncler +20% in Q1, up double digit everywhere, with acceleration in both US & Europe. Prada says April sales were in line with Q1's excellent 16% pace. $PPRUY $PRDSY $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

2 weeks ago

Prada trends by geography: Chinese travelling overseas more powering both Europe & Japan. US local consumption continues to improve & for Prada, spend by Euro local also up. Outperforming sector but more of a read thru to luxury peers than Kering $PPRUY $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

2 weeks ago

Kering warning hogged luxury headlines but Prada just reported 16% growth in Q1. Yes driven by Miu Miu, but with larger Prada brand still+7%, on heels of LVMH, speaks to normalisation, not crash. $LVMUY $HESAY $CFRUY $PPRUY

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Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru

2 weeks ago

Market reaction is usually to mark down peers with every Kering warning but this Q, Gucci was 20 points behind LVMH & 34(!) points behind Prada which was +16% in same Q. Truly abominable at $PPRUY everywhere & no sky isn’t falling for luxury. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY

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