Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech
CIO, Relative Sentiment Technologies | Examining the forces that move markets | Free weekly updates: https://t.co/9AzflLA3VQ | Not investment advice relativesentiment.com Palmas Del Mar, Puerto Rico Joined September 2009-
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The large upward reaction in precious metals and miners after the NFP wasn't really validated by the small fall in the dollar. 🤔
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U.S. T-bond futures ($ZB) testing the downtrend line from the highs and trying to hold above 116 simultaneously. Positioning has been bullish for long-duration bonds since November, but they have gone only sideways.
Composite precious metals relative sentiment is bullish, but running out of time. That bullish state looks like it will expire by the second or third week of June given gold and silver's spot (i.e., unsmoothed) relative positioning, which is deeply bearish.
10-year forward expected annualized nominal U.S. equity returns sit at -0.93% (on par with dotcom era expectations), against a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.23%. -516 basis points of expected risk premium.
Composite equity relative sentiment (CERS) dropped sharply last week from 77% to 59%, a neutral-bullish level. Market has generally flatlined when CERS was between 40%-60%, historically--annualizing 5% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.3. CERS looks like it may stay in high-50s/low-60s…
The NQ/RTY ratio finally breaking below the July '24 high after several attempts in recent months. It even bounced there this morning pre-Jackson Hole. The rotation looks like it could accelerate from here.
$IWM can't go three days without finishing at its low. Clock starts over.
$IWM can't go three days without finishing at its low. Clock starts over.
$IWM having a hard time getting above its election day closing price.
The shift to bullish yen relative sentiment looks like it's helping silver so far this week (but it's early).
The shift to bullish yen relative sentiment looks like it's helping silver so far this week (but it's early).
Composite equity relative sentiment (CERS) is holding steady in the high 70s, a solidly bullish reading. The market has analyzed > 20% with a Sharpe over 1 when CERS has been between 60% and 80%. Under the hood, cross-asset relative sentiment has been trending bearishly,…
Institutions got a little longer equities relative to retail last week (in the futures & options markets), but remain well off their pre-Iran-strike highs. Institutions are relatively bullish $ES and $RTY, and relatively bearish $NQ.
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