SmallcapGlobalValue @SmallcapGlobal
Quantitative Ideas + Fundamental Research + Emotional Discipline + Consistent Effort = Alpha Factory; something like Walter Schloss, nothing like Bobby Axelrod. New York, NY Joined December 2015-
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Great chart from @AriWald this AM, "Investors Intelligence reported their Bull/Bear ratio dropped to 2.1 from 3.9 w/ bullishness sliding to 46.2% from 56.5%. Prior 5 occurrences of bulls falling at least 10% in a week include Oct 1987, Nov 1991, March 2008, Jan 2010 & Feb 2018"
The Yen is crashing. Just blew through 157 against the Dollar. Why? In part because US yields have been climbing due to reaccelerating inflation. The Fed embarked on the fastest hiking cycle in history and it hasn’t worked. They are now desperate to somehow justify cutting…
BREAKING: Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir was wounded when his government car got into an accident and flipped over. He was taken to the hospital
WALMART U.S. CEO: ".. we are now seeing prices that are in line with where they were 12 months ago. I haven’t been able to say that for a few years .. The last few weeks, we've taken even more prices down in areas like produce and meat and fresh food.” $WMT @ABC…
According to the just-released data, March headline and core PCE #inflation are slightly higher than the consensus forecasts (2.7 vs. 2.6 and 2.8 vs 2.7). Having said that, the miss is smaller than yesterday, and the monthly readings are in line. Meanwhile, personal spending rose…
-Removes wording on buying same amount of bonds -Vote 9-0 for unch -Needs to pay full attention to FX Full statement; chat.forexanalytix.com/channel/news_a… $JPY
USD/JPY v. 10y UST yields. It's starting to look like the weak JPY will crush America way before it crushes China.
A Fed nightmare. When GDP (economic activity) slows down, yet prices continue rising (stagflation), and the government refuses to curb reckless deficit spending, this puts the Fed and Treasury in an impossible position that no matter what they do, it will lead to issuing more and…
A Fed nightmare. When GDP (economic activity) slows down, yet prices continue rising (stagflation), and the government refuses to curb reckless deficit spending, this puts the Fed and Treasury in an impossible position that no matter what they do, it will lead to issuing more and…
April 24: CBOT July #wheat this week has popped above most moving averages, settling at $6.13/bu on Wed. The contract has jumped almost 11% in the last 4 sessions, most-active wheat's biggest rally since July. US/Europe/Russia weather, Black Sea tensions, low India stocks...
This is a notable miss. Expectations were for Q1 core PCE at 3.4%. After the March CPI and PPI, Wall Street forecasters were expecting core PCE rose around 0.27% in March, which would have implied a 2.7% 12-month increase.
This is a notable miss. Expectations were for Q1 core PCE at 3.4%. After the March CPI and PPI, Wall Street forecasters were expecting core PCE rose around 0.27% in March, which would have implied a 2.7% 12-month increase.
These go so hard.
BREAKING: Dow futures extend losses to 350 points after weaker than expected Q1 2024 GDP data. Interestingly, this is the first time that markets have fallen on weak economic data. In the past, weak economic data meant more rate cuts which was "bullish." Now, we have rising…
The equity market went up 28% in 5 months in a parabolic fashion, with no material pullback. It started with expectations of a big easing cycle, and for a growth reacceleration. With the former off the table for now, we are left with the latter.
Small cap forward P/E above the long-term average $IWM
On $JPY - the problem with intervention is that once the genie is out of the bottle… it’s hard to put it back in. We’re at a stage where MoF/BoJ have no choice but to intervene. The best way would be for BoJ to hike 25bps this week. It’s not about the macro anymore (BoJ…
The smartest move by the PBOC right now to relieve currency pressures would be a one-time significant devaluation (say 10-20%) which then serves as a clearly defended floor through rhetoric and action.
Bonds are a good hedge for stock investors only if core inflation is predictably below 3%. Otherwise they suck at diversifying portfolios.
Stock market sentiment has shifted from greed to nearly extreme fear in just 1 week. On Friday, the Fear & Greed index fell to 31, its lowest reading since October 2023. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 recorded three consecutive weeks of losses and is ~6% below its all-time highs. At…
Kuppy @hkuppy
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53K Followers 4K Following Partner & TMT Analyst LightShed Partners GP LightShed Ventures Media Futurist Websites & Social Links: https://t.co/9u1Ibhj4TO$TLT $110 2026 January calls can be bought for ~$2.4 $150 2026 January calls sell for $.5 Say that something horrific happens and the fed drops rates to 0%. If $TLT goes to $150+ again you risked $1.9 to win $48. Isn't that way too cheap of tail insurance? Maybe even a…
A year ago I left my job at a hedge fund in NY to start my own fund, Bristlemoon Capital. Some thoughts below on the journey of launching a fund (both the good and bad):
The equity market went up 28% in 5 months in a parabolic fashion, with no material pullback. It started with expectations of a big easing cycle, and for a growth reacceleration. With the former off the table for now, we are left with the latter.
Apart from being a professional investor, I also collect (old) investment books. This one is a rare find. First Edition (1959) Maurice Schiller - How to Profit from Special Situations in the Stock Market. Published almost 40 years before Greenblatt's well-known book.
Looks like MacroQuant may have nailed it again.
@SmallcapGlobal @andrewmickey @onecentinvest So what I did was run this from 2013 to 2023. And I used a one year look ahead rule to remove the stocks which would have the highest return. The CAGR dropped to 67%. That takes out roughly the highest returning 50 or so stocks.
STEVIEEEEEEEEEE! The Welsh wonder becomes the first British male winner of @flechewallonne 🏆 #FlecheWallonne 🇧🇪 #YallaIPT
$SEED.L announced a special dividend of 1p, which is almost 50% yield. It’s a UK micro cap with £4.3m mkt cap and over £6m net cash. Met the company in January. Briefly discussed it with my premium subscribers.
This is really good @AlbertBridgeCap albertbridgecapital.com/post/stay-in-t…
Microcaps are both awful and fantastic at the same time. The key is finding a process that weeds out low-quality stocks. My process is simple... 🔸Positive free cash flow (quarterly and trailing 12 months) 🔸Short interest 1% or less 🔸Price to sales is 1 or less 🔸No OTC stocks…
How come after almost two decades in the business I'm still doing my own slide decks? Where did it all go wrong...
@BillyM2k They’re not forcing anyone to buy it. You can return it if you don’t like it. The YT title was meant to crush them. A show of force by MKBHD.
Day 1 of our Grand Traverse of Corsica in the books! ~50 miles of sun followed by ~17 miles of a wall of water dropped from the sky! Not an easy place to get to, but well-worth the effort.
$INMD is about to accomplish something I've never seen before. $INMD pre-announced Q1 earnings today and lowered full year revenue guidance from $500M to $490M. The stock was down -11% at the premarket lows but bounced back and closed down -6.8% $INMD has approx 84.6M shares…
Today we launched Sherwood News! Here’s some of the features we launched today!
I think idea generation is the most important part of investing into microcaps, so I wrote a blog post about it.
Here is a simple 2-rule system that has under-performed 16.5% annually since 2002. If you short small-caps, you may want to pay attention. 🔸 Rule 1: Negative quarterly free cash flow 🔸 Rule 2: Analyst price target is at least 5% lower than it was a month ago That's it. Each…
If you're on Interactive Brokers $IBKR and want to understand your edge better, try using their portfolio analyst tool. You can see your sortino ratio, market correlation, alpha, standard deviation, etc. Click: Portfolio analyst Reports Create Custom Report (The + sign) And…
1/4 - Had a DM asking if $SUP was still worth picking up and figured I'd write out my my thought. On SUP, it's had a nice little monthly run, but in the grand scheme of the opportunity it's barely moved. The equity share of value has increased by <5% recently.