TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

L/S Equity analyst based in London. Not investment advice. Joined August 2022

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

4 days ago

Negative tone from $TXN at the Citi conf… implying the analog upcycle we thought was happening was really just pull-in driven. "We saw the business begin to transition positive in early 2024. So kind of Q1 of last year, it began to transition and grew every quarter throughout…

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

2 weeks ago

how is $NVDA only down 2%

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

4 months ago

Trade idea: go long companies that admit they're seeing a pull-forward based on tariffs and short companies that say it's demand based

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

5 months ago

you know it's bad when @_fabknowledge_ becomes a macro analyst

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

5 months ago

$soxx below Jan22 levels

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

11 months ago

Laying out the Bull case for $TXN: Industrials, Auto = full upcycle next year, company is able to grow equivalent of 2021 in FY25 & FY26 (25% CAGR).. That's $22B in revenues with $2B capex that's best case $10 FCF per share.. on a peak 25x EV/FCF that's a $240 stock (only ~20%…

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

11 months ago

When you look at the history of semiconductors and the rise of the foundry model in '87 with the creation of $TSMC, you start to understand what it takes to compete at the leading-edge. We've gone from 20+ foundries/IDMs two decades ago to essentially a duopoly today… It's all…

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

11 months ago

What a day to be long $ASML short $WOLF

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

11 months ago

fab constructions have been put on pause due to permit delays, gov grants taking longer etc. so there are some equipment pushouts for all semicaps, probably also $INTC capex cuts or Memory doesn't help but quite surprising that $ASML management claims they were well on track for…

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

11 months ago

During its previous quarter $SMCI guided for FY revs like $4B above consensus but showed margin deterioration = stock went down 20% Today, PR by $SMCI claiming they’re shipping above 100k GPUs per quarter - nothing really incremental = stocks up 15% Doesn’t change the story,…

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

11 months ago

Some scary stuff going on in the back-end of the AI networking market… Spectrum-X from $NVDA going from ~2% market share to >30% in a single quarter to become the market leader… yes we’re moving away from Infiniband but we’re still using $NVDA products GPUs still constrained =…

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

12 months ago

Guess who currently has longer lead times than $ASML and $KLAC? $WDC. 52+ week lead times on their HDD product line. Not surprising when you know 90% of hyperscaler data is stored on HDDs and the amount of data there is skyrocketing.

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

12 months ago

I don’t know how sell side can be bullish $NVDA bullish $AAPL replacement cycle and bullish AI PCs with 20%+ penetration rate next year but still be bearish on Memory… $MU stock flat YTD with demand drivers still intact makes it a good setup into earnings, any thoughts?

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

12 months ago

The squeeze we're seeing on $MBLY is unreal

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TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst

a year ago

Very interesting comment by CFO of $LRCX on China durability: "Now what I would describe to you is I think people get concerned, hey, this spending is going to go away. It is not. I do not believe. And I say that because when we talk to this set of customers, they all have…