Chad Kusserow @VetTechTrader
25+ year career tech investor/hedge fund manager. Fundamental alpha generation and absolute returns, driven by my self-developed R/R system and a touch of TA. Chicago, IL Joined October 2012-
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$SMCI mentioned sev times strong growth F'25/beyond (yes, that could likely change materially); prob didn't help their cause saying wld prob have to price more aggressively to take share; said took in 700M in inventory the last week of the quarter
Quick swag at the '24 revenue model for $AMD and getting ~1.5B below street- assuming 4.2B DC GPU revs- all the DC upside more than swallowed up by downside in Gaming and Embedded- getting eps closer to $3 (rough swag) vs. street 3.65; wildcard DC OMs- assuming 26%
$AMZN said overall capex to "meaningfully increase" in '24 driven by higher infra capex to support AWS, including gen AI
Jassy with a bit of a swat at $NVDA "broadest selection of $NVDA compute instances around but demand for our custom silicon...is quite high given its favorable price/performance benefits vs. available alternatives"- good for $MRVL
$AMD saying Gaming down >30% seq again and 2H revs less than 1H- both Embedded and Gaming much worse than expected - well north of 1B lower
$AMD basically said demand>supply for Q2 for the MI300 but sounds like that changes as get into the 2H- we already know lead times for $NVDA have been coming down
$AMD said MI300 is NOT supply capped- seems to shoot down a lot of perceptions- said demand just more 2H weighted but trying to pull shipments in to 1H- said was an industry thing, not just them
Believe I was decently below consensus for Embedded revs for $AMD in '24 and I'm knocking revs down by sev hundred M in revs; same with Gaming- net, net both combined prob coming down >500M
$AMD said DC GPUs for '24 now 4B+ vs. 3.5B before- not good enough most likely- at least stk has corrected over 30% so exps have come down a fair amount
Ex-China macro, did $SBUX finally just price themselves out of budgets, been wondering for awhile if would happen if things stayed/got tighter
Just a correction on $AMZN- Ad revs was in-line/slightly better at 24% growth (initially saw wrong end of table); NA retail margins stepped back a bit but int'l stepped up almost 400bps seq
Well, you can see the $AAPL iphone weakness hickey on $SWKS with the June Q guide 10% light (biggest cust at ~2/3 of revs)
$AMD in-linish q1/q2 guide- all rev upside from Client (100M or so), DC in-line, Gaming and Embedded both weak (Embedded worst miss which is highest OM)- now for DC GPU '24 guide - better say at least 4.5B or so
$AMZN Ad biz was a touch shy at 22% growth vs exps closer to 24%
$PINS very strong beat/raise- 6% revs beat, 40M ebitda beat; 11M MAU beat
$SMCI actually missed q1 revs by 4% (still beat eps >10%) but more than made up guiding next Q ahead (9%)and raising Fyr revs guide by 2% (maybe disappointing); bumped up eps by ~6%
$AMZN very strong 1 report - weakish guide- light revs and OI a bit below for q2; OI 15.3B vs. 10B guide (exps should have been at least 13-14B); AWS beat at 17%
Another $AMD print where prob no better than net hold revisions (maybe beat q1 on Client/DC) but q2 guide weakish; what's an "acceptable DC GPU guide- seems at least 4-4.5B? tough to know; $LSCC called out Comms as still being very weak (Embedded highest OM biz)
$MSFT now gave up the whole post earnings gap up and then some- maybe people really are looking at ROI on capex, or at least attempting to contemplate on it vs. just spend and it will all be good; and/or just looking at FCF mults vs. just reported earnings
CapitalGuy🇺🇦 @Crussian17
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Astound Broadband Home Internet Review: Great Starting Price, but Beware a Steep Increase cnet.co/3Qo7Rrd
"We expect data centers to comprise ~8% of US power demand by 2030 in our base case, with potential for 11% in our bull case and 5% in our bear case" $XLU
Congress considers legislation to block DJI drones from running on US communication networks, effectively killing the Chinese company's US commercial business (@katekelly / New York Times) nytimes.com/2024/04/25/us/… 📫 Subscribe: techmeme.com/newsletter?fro… techmeme.com/240426/p12#a24…
$ROKU should not be down off this print IMO. I get the stock ran a bit into EPS, but it was a big beat with platform revenue acceleration well beyond even our more bullish expectations. And EBITDA upside was significant. Yes, comps are more difficult in Q2/Q3, but revenue…
Azure AI Services was disclosed as ~7% of growth this quarter (in the earnings slide). Updating the YoY growth chart here:
@VetTechTrader Appreciate everything you’re willing to share. Especially when stocks become quite undervalued or oversold
$PYPL Sam Altman’s Worldcoin Sam Altman’s Worldcoin eyeing partnerships with PayPal fortune.com/crypto/2024/04…
$NVDA ❖ HUAWEI LEADS CHINESE EFFORT TO COMPETE WITH NVIDIA'S AI CHIPS The project, backed by the Chinese government, aims at homegrown technology to blunt the impact of Western sanctions. theinformation.com/articles/huawe…
HUAWEI-LED CONSORTIUM, BACKED BY FUNDING FROM THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT, AIMS TO PRODUCE HIGH-BANDWIDTH MEMORY CHIPS BY 2026 - THE INFORMATION
STMicro cuts FY revenue outlook as slowing car market bites reut.rs/3vYnIpz
Taiwan chipmaker UMC warns of muted auto, industrial demand reut.rs/3JyP1Kb
Microsoft's (MSFT) next-quarter guidance may be 'prudent' - Jefferies loom.ly/oU4wLPA
Cradlepoint aims for scalability with new 5G-optimized SASE platform NetCloud SASE is a 5G-optimized platform that Cradlepoint sa sdx.io/50WU
Snowflake launches Arctic, an open ‘mixture-of-experts’ LLM to take on DBRX, Llama 3 venturebeat.com/data-infrastru…
Tesla 10-Q is out early - $TSLA recognized $281M of deferred revenue in 1Q (Up from $134M in 1Q'23. $281M of 100% incremental margin revenue = 150bps margin benefit. sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…
We highlighted this issue earlier today - no one will have a clue what underlying automotive gross margins on the physical car sales are until the Q comes out next week:
China's mega-telcos are spending billions on AI servers dlvr.it/T5wtKn