Andrew Levin @andrewtlevin
econ professor at Dartmouth College dartmouth.edu/~alevin/ Hanover, NH Joined September 2014-
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Andrew Levin retweeted
.@greg_ip gets to the heart of yesterday's Fed decision. on.wsj.com/1TR4R4j
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Key elements of today's Fed decision: only 2 hikes this year under their benchmark scenario, and explicit acknowledgment of global risks.
Lael Brainard's wise prescription of "watchful waiting" has clearly won over many of her Fed colleagues.
Broad-based decline in US retail sales: 8 out of 13 major categories were negative last month. bloom.bg/1plmdcv
Macro forecasters should be more modest & transparent about limitations of their methods--just like meteorologists!
Macro forecasters should be more modest & transparent about limitations of their methods--just like meteorologists!
Macro forecasts are presented with artificially high precision; meteorologists show probabilities in 10% increments.
Macro forecasts are presented with artificially high precision; meteorologists show probabilities in 10% increments.
Central banks tend to overemphasize benchmark outlook, whereas weather forecasters routinely use scenario analysis.
Central banks tend to overemphasize benchmark outlook, whereas weather forecasters routinely use scenario analysis.
Japanese machine orders down 23 pct in February, with an accelerating pace of decline since last August. on.ft.com/1peS7YK via @fastFT
Deepening trouble: Chinese exports now down 25 pct from a year ago. on.ft.com/1pc9utd
Andrew Levin retweeted
UK service sector growth, which drives wider GDP growth, falls to a 3-year low. Services PMI 52.7 in Feb.
Signs of disinflationary pressure in US service sector: ISM prices-paid index now at lowest level in six years. bloom.bg/1pp2N6Y
US slowdown not limited to industrial sector: ISM survey shows services firms are cutting back on jobs & new orders. bloom.bg/1pp2N6Y
Caixin composite index: China's economy is now contracting. on.ft.com/1Rq7u6R
Hard landing: China manuf PMI now at 2009 levels, services PMI also deteriorating. bloom.bg/1ndK64l
The Fed's Cold War With Congress Could Hurt the U.S. Economy bloom.bg/1KPLmX4
Andrew Levin retweeted
New consumer data from the New York Fed headed in the wrong direction, as usual bloom.bg/1S3Phki
China slowdown is weighing on German business confidence. bloom.bg/1QvbSRp
Hard landing: MNI China new orders have fallen to Aug. 2012 levels. on.ft.com/24eUqLm
Andrew Levin retweeted
In response to massive capital outflows, China stops publishing data about massive capital outflows bit.ly/1osxCHd
Andrew Levin retweeted
The Fed voted last month to tighten its procedures for handling sensitive information, and reporting potential leaks on.wsj.com/1OgO8ik
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