Vovchik @arbitraryintel
Joined October 2022-
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This is absolutely insane: In 5 days, the BLS is set to revise US jobs numbers for the 12 months ending March 2025. According to Goldman Sachs, a DOWNWARD revision of up to -950,000 jobs is coming. This would be the biggest downward revision since 2010. What is happening…
This is absolutely insane: In 5 days, the BLS is set to revise US jobs numbers for the 12 months ending March 2025. According to Goldman Sachs, a DOWNWARD revision of up to -950,000 jobs is coming. This would be the biggest downward revision since 2010. What is happening… https://t.co/rmmFegq3SW
For the first time in over 4 years, there are more Unemployed people in the US than there are Job Openings. Labor market continues to cool... bilello.blog/newsletter
BREAKING 🚨: Japan Japan's 30-Year Treasury jumps above 3.23%, its highest level in history 📈📈
"US stock Market hits its most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression," per Bloomberg.
The US Money Supply grew 4.8% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since July 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back.
Kroger announces corporate layoffs, structural changes Food too expensive #MacroEdge
U.S. Housing Market has reached its most unaffordable level in history 🚨🚨
It's official: Japan’s Core CPI inflation is now ABOVE US Core CPI inflation for the first time in 48 years, excluding periods of sales tax hikes. Japan's Core CPI was 3.4% in July, one of the highest readings since the 1980s. By comparison, US core CPI inflation was 3.1%.…
Redfin: Home purchases are getting canceled at a record rate #MacroEdge
It's official: The US has now seen 446 LARGE bankruptcy filings in 2025, officially +12% ABOVE pandemic levels in 2020. In July alone, the US saw 71 bankruptcies, marking the highest single-month total since July 2020. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)
⚠️US subprime auto loan delinquencies are ABOVE crisis levels: The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has surpassed 5% for the first time in HISTORY. They have DOUBLED over the last 4 years. They are way ABOVE the Great Financial Crisis levels.
Lumber is one of the most sensitive barometers of future demand because it ties directly into housing, construction, and credit. When it rolls over this hard, it often means something deeper: builders pulling back, financing tightening, and consumers hesitating on big-ticket…
Lumber is one of the most sensitive barometers of future demand because it ties directly into housing, construction, and credit. When it rolls over this hard, it often means something deeper: builders pulling back, financing tightening, and consumers hesitating on big-ticket…
Corporate Insiders are dumping 🚨🚨
BREAKING: Jeffrey Epstein case is now closed, and the DOJ has no plans to release any further documents related to it, it has said.
Ladies and gentlemens, the Buffett Indicator has reached 209%, the most overvalued in history, 40% higher than the 2000 bubble. hope this helps.
Rolling 6m sum of @ChallengerGray job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions
U.S. M2 Money Supply hit a new all-time high 🚨📈
BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped 49 basis points in June, to a record 11.1%. This has now officially surpassed the post-2008 high of 10.7% and the December 2024 peak of 11.0%. Since the start of 2023, the…
BEWARE: Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2011
BREAKING: May PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rises to 2.3%, in-line with expectations of 2.3%. Core PCE inflation rises to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.6%. PCE inflation is now rising for the first time since February 2025. The Fed pause will continue.
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