Elga Bartsch @bartsche
DG Econ at @BMWK, former Head of Macro Research @Blackrock, Global Co-Head of Econ @MorganStanley, @kielinstitute, personal views only London, England Joined July 2011-
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„Es gibt zwar oft gute Gründe für eine #Industriepolitik, es muss aber sehr darauf geachtet werden, dass die Industriepolitik nicht zu einem Sammelsurium von Subventionen ohne wirtschaftspolitischen Kompass wird“, so #ZEW-Präsident @AchimWambach ⬇️
„Es gibt zwar oft gute Gründe für eine #Industriepolitik, es muss aber sehr darauf geachtet werden, dass die Industriepolitik nicht zu einem Sammelsurium von Subventionen ohne wirtschaftspolitischen Kompass wird“, so #ZEW-Präsident @AchimWambach ⬇️
Die Stimmung unter den Unternehmen in Deutschland hat sich etwas verbessert. Der #ifoGeschäftsklimaindex stieg im Juli auf 88,6 Punkte, nach 88,4 Punkten im Juni. Der Aufschwung der deutschen Wirtschaft bleibt blutleer. @FuestClemens @KlausWohlrabe #ifoUmfrage
Das ist eine traurige Nachricht. Gerhard Fels war Gründungsmitglied des #KronbergerKreis und hatte die ersten angebotsorientierten Politikempfehlungen und Studien des Kreises entschieden mitgeprägt, bis er 1983 an das @iw_koeln ging: stiftung-marktwirtschaft.de/inhalte/kronbe…
Das ist eine traurige Nachricht. Gerhard Fels war Gründungsmitglied des #KronbergerKreis und hatte die ersten angebotsorientierten Politikempfehlungen und Studien des Kreises entschieden mitgeprägt, bis er 1983 an das @iw_koeln ging: stiftung-marktwirtschaft.de/inhalte/kronbe…
Der OECD-Wirtschaftsbericht bestätigt den Reformkurs der Bundesregierung. Bundeswirtschaftsministerin Reiche betonte bei der Übergabe des Berichts mit OECD-Generalsekretär Cormann: Ein höheres #Wachstum in Deutschland ist möglich – wir haben es selbst in der Hand. (1/5)
In NYC, at @Nasdaq headquarters presenting the Report “Much More than a Market” and the projects for an integrated 🇪🇺 Savings and Investments Union. @DelorsInstitute @DelorsBerlin @IEuniversity @iespega @AgenziaAREL
There is, at least in my view, a lot of sloppy analysis about the role the dollar's reserve currency "status" plays in financing the US external deficit. I understand how reserve accumulation funds the deficit, but not how the "status" of the dollar does ... 1/ many
There are moments when foundations that seem unshakeable begin to shift, says President Christine @Lagarde at the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin. Current changes create the opening for a “global euro moment”. But this isn’t a privilege that’ll be given to us. We have to earn it.
Trump verhängt 50% Zölle auf EU Exporte ab Juni. Jetzt ist Europa die Zielscheibe. Unser KITE Modell zeigt negative BIP-Effekte auf die USA (1.5%), die doppelt so hoch sind wie für die EU (0.78%). Die EU ist also in einer guten Position und sollte sich nicht einschüchtern lassen.
Trump verhängt 50% Zölle auf EU Exporte ab Juni. Jetzt ist Europa die Zielscheibe. Unser KITE Modell zeigt negative BIP-Effekte auf die USA (1.5%), die doppelt so hoch sind wie für die EU (0.78%). Die EU ist also in einer guten Position und sollte sich nicht einschüchtern lassen.
Ok, since we're back with the stupid Trump tariffs headlines, it's time to post the great charts from the ECB FSR yesterday Trade tensions could increase bank cost of risk by +12bps, +8bps on less exposed banks, +22bps on more exposed banks.
Das Bundeskabinett hat diese Woche den Entwurf des #Reallabore-Gesetz beschlossen und schafft damit attraktive Rahmenbedingungen für innovative Unternehmen. Mehr Infos: bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/P…
2025 Allianz Trade Global Survey is clear: post-Liberation Day, global #trade confidence has cracked. 42% of #exporters expect declining revenues; 62% reroute shipments; 48% see rising non-payment risks. #tradeWar isn’t a headline, it’s a structural shift tinyurl.com/bdd5j57d
The Economist dives into the crypto swamp—politics and all. But if you’re curious about who really wins in a Bitcoin bull market (even if it never crashes), our paper is a must-read: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4… Deep dive into the distributional consequences of #BTC. #bitcoin #crypto
@SanderTordoir Excellent, congratulations @SanderTordoir ! One aspect to stress is the huge potential of linking the two existential threats: military and economic, & making high tech defense Europe’s growth engine, as I argue in project-syndicate.org/commentary/eur…
How Europe should respond to the erosion of the dollar’s status via @FT @LBS @cepr_org @GroupofThirty on.ft.com/3F33CyH
#Frühjahrsprojektion 2025: Die Wachstumserwartung für die #Wirtschaft musste wegen der großen innen- wie außenpolitischen Herausforderungen gegenüber der Jahresprojektion auf 0,0 % nach unten angepasst werden. Erholungen werden im nächsten Jahr erwartet.➡️ bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/P…
The dollar and USTR bond prices had priced in the future convenience yields that the ROW harvests from dollar-denominated (safe assets). These convenience yields measure the return the ROW was willing to forgo in exchange for the safety and liquidity of dollar-denominated safe…
The dollar and USTR bond prices had priced in the future convenience yields that the ROW harvests from dollar-denominated (safe assets). These convenience yields measure the return the ROW was willing to forgo in exchange for the safety and liquidity of dollar-denominated safe…
Don't blame the plumbing of Treasury markets, blame Congress and the White House. Not the unwinding of the basis trade in US Treasury markets, but the response to a large, macro shock. March 2020 was the first sign of cracks in the global safe asset supplier armor. April 7 and…
Great article by @AdamPosen in @ForeignAffairs -- a must-read. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

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ILLUMINATI ORGANIZATI... @dhelRemexio
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European Central Bank @ecb
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ZEW @ZEW
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Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs
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