Life was about reaching the perfect destination, I am starting to suspect that it is the imperfections of life that amount to a different kind of perfection.
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DARK MATTER.
SVB had $212B in assets... they were not a small bank. Interestingly, the Fed had concerns about these large banks back in October.
#SVBreuters.com/markets/us/fed…
Now I’m seeing promoted tweets shitting on @elonmusk. Not the content moderation I was expecting and also an interesting use of capital by the shit poster. I personally don’t like giving my money to someone I dislike but to each their own. Go Elon!
The crypto culture is closely intertwined with @twitter. Here is your hero moment @elonmusk - save @SBF_FTX@FTX_Official and add payments and a crypto exchange to the biggest crypto social media platform. C’mon @sequoia. LFG
One thing I don’t think any forecasters have in their core inflation outlook is medical care inflation collapsing over the next year. We’ll get confirmation of whether this happens in the Oct CPI report, but I expect medical care to go from ~ +0.5% MoM to a steady ~ -0.2% MoM.🧵
What happens when after decades of massive returns you decide to put markets on steroids in 2020-2021 too via an unprecedented amount of fiscal & monetary stimulus?
Well, boomers retire and never look back
And a smaller labor force compounds the inflationary backdrop we are in
Gold has been so financialized by derivatives, don’t expect it to act the same as the 70s. Additionally, a hawkish fed and heightened geopolitical uncertainty will ensure the dollar strength.
The current backdrop is analogous to the 70s and returns may just suck for sometime. Your choices are: 1. lose purchasing power in cash 2. lose principal and purchasing power in assets.
Every rally has been snubbed by a statement from a Fed official reiterating their hawkish stance. Markets have not yet learned that there’s no more Fed put.
The Fed can’t control the secular forces driving inflation. Supply chains, on shoring, tariffs, and immigration policy are all culprits and out of the Feds control.
The current terminal rate priced in is not enough to break the back of inflation. It’s pricing in a bet that something will break in the system and cause a recession.
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