David Teeters @davidteeters
IESE Finance | LSE EconHist Joined June 2011-
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Big move in Taiwan's dollar tonight, and on Friday. The currencies of Asian surplus countries were depreciating v the dollar for so long that it seems like some folks forgot about just how big some of the surpluses are.
Big move in Taiwan's dollar tonight, and on Friday. The currencies of Asian surplus countries were depreciating v the dollar for so long that it seems like some folks forgot about just how big some of the surpluses are. https://t.co/yl9rU7sPuv
I’m not saying this is definitely happening. I can’t confirm that. What I’m pointing out is that Stephen Miran, now CEA Chair, laid out this exact gold‑fx loop in his “User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System.” Since then we’ve watched every footprint you’d…
I’m not saying this is definitely happening. I can’t confirm that. What I’m pointing out is that Stephen Miran, now CEA Chair, laid out this exact gold‑fx loop in his “User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System.” Since then we’ve watched every footprint you’d…
Shock as Strategy | IESE Insight 🔹 Unpacking the calculated chaos of President Trump’s second-term agenda to radically rebalance the U.S. and global economic order. But so much noise can be a distraction that prevents us from hearing the quiet parts said out loud. 🔹Twin…
Here are the reforms the U.S. Department of the Treasury is advancing to Make America Great Again: home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
Let's call it: The first big blackout of the green electricity era (Below my notes from the conference call the Spanish grid operator held earlier today with reporters. I added extra information from my initial post, and corrected a location: it was the south-west). 🧵1/2
Translation of "Huge deficit with China" + "Moderate surplus with the US" + "We're going to change our policy because of the tariffs" = Devaluation USD v. CNY (Probably via gold...which is part of why I am totally unconcerned about this week's drop in gold.)
Translation of "Huge deficit with China" + "Moderate surplus with the US" + "We're going to change our policy because of the tariffs" = Devaluation USD v. CNY (Probably via gold...which is part of why I am totally unconcerned about this week's drop in gold.)
B/c post-71 structure of USD reserve status requires the US to transfer the US defense industrial base to China over time. The way to cut the Gordian Knot of Triffin’s Dilemma is by separating global reserve currency (USD) from global reserve asset (UST), in favor of gold or BTC
1/7 ING's chief economist worries that "the consequences of deglobalisation will show up in the slow erosion of long-term productivity and economic wellbeing. It will leave us all poorer in the long-run." I don't think this kind of muddled thinking is helpful.…
The story around China issuing USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia is generating an enormous amount of buzz in China, and could potentially be immensely important. I strongly suspect it's a message to the upcoming Trump administration. Let me explain what seems to…
@calabrias_cat @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @howardlutnick @Jkylebass @BillAckman Elon, cutting spending before reducing US debt/GDP from 125% toward 70-80% will be the economic equivalent of beginning a game of Jenga by removing a bottom block. The economic & then political response will approximate collapse of the Jenga tower. MUST reduce debt/GDP 1st, cut…
My October public newsletter is available now: lynalden.com/october-2024-n… It discusses four macro catalysts that I'll be monitoring in the year or so ahead.
To move this debate to a higher level, the core issue is whether it is plausible that China reports a $200 billion current account surplus (last 4qs of data, no q3 yet) when its customs surplus is around $900 billion 1/
To move this debate to a higher level, the core issue is whether it is plausible that China reports a $200 billion current account surplus (last 4qs of data, no q3 yet) when its customs surplus is around $900 billion 1/ https://t.co/asDoopcoIX
I had originally accepted @Brad_Setser reasonable-sounding explanation that China's official current account surplus has been significantly understated these past two years. But now that I have really dug into this arcane topic, my conclusion is that not only are the…
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