Ben Mayhew @experimental361
Football analysis & visualisations with an @EFL bias. Former Head of Data Analysis @PA. Lapsed astrophysicist. @TUFC1899 fan. 🇺🇦 experimental361.com United Kingdom Joined June 2011-
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2023's instalment of a recent @PAdugout tradition, the calendar year league table: irishnews.com/sport/soccer/a… Thanks and a happy new year to Ben Mayhew, who brought this to PA from @experimental361, and @philleake91 who worked on this year's with me before leaving the company
Following the release of the 2023-24 EFL fixtures, we’ve used an average of bookmakers’ odds to create fixture difficulty grids for all three divisions (w/ @TomWhitePA & @experimental361) Here’s how the Championship looks, with the three relegated clubs handed comfortable starts
Keeping up an @experimental361 tradition, we’ve used an average of bookmakers’ odds to create a Premier League fixture difficulty grid for the 2023-24 season I’ve picked out some of the most interesting runs here w/ @TomWhitePA: aol.co.uk/sport/softer-s…
... and finally here are the latest scatters for the Premier League. Brighton and Newcastle look deserving of European football on this evidence. More teams than usual are struggling to convert their chances this season. experimental361.com/2023/04/06/sca…
... and here are the latest scatter graphics for the Championship. Burnley have been making it very difficult for opponents to shoot, while Cardiff have really struggled to convert their chances this season. experimental361.com/2023/04/06/sca…
... and here are the scatter graphics for League 1. Ipswich have been in a class of their own so far, while Morecambe look to be in trouble. experimental361.com/2023/04/06/sca…
I've updated the scatter graphics for each division. Here they are for League 2, where Stevenage have been out-shooting the rest by an impressive margin: experimental361.com/2023/04/06/sca…
Ahead of the final round of group games I've refreshed the World Cup probability graphics again. There's one for each of the 30 teams still capable of reaching the knockouts via the link: experimental361.com/2022/11/29/pre…
I've updated the World Cup probability graphics after the first round of group games - the full set (including one for every team) can be found here: experimental361.com/2022/11/25/pre… Argentina's shock defeat has really shaken things up.
With the World Cup approaching I've dusted off the probability graphics that show how the tournament is likely to unfold. The aim is to update these regularly. Explanation and a full set of graphics (one for each team) via the link: experimental361.com/2022/11/14/pre…
It's been a while since the last update, so there's a new set of scatter graphics for the Premier League and EFL here: experimental361.com/category/visua…
We’re only 12 weeks into the season and we can already create a ‘victory loop’ where Team 1 beats Team 2, Team 2 defeats Team 3, and so on until Team 24 beats Team 1 (w/ @experimental361)
Switching something else back on today: here's how much the league tables can change as a result of this weekend's fixtures: experimental361.com/category/visua…
Finally, here are the scatter graphics for League 2. Some more stretching is required to capture the horrendous luck that Gillingham have endured in front of goal so far: experimental361.com/2022/09/07/sca…
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⚽️ Latest with @HKhaliqueLoonat for @TimesSport on why Premier League players are getting older and at what ages they peak 🗣 Shoutout @Worville for the chart inspiration 👇 thetimes.co.uk/article/ab1e8f… /1
Vores administration, sportslige afdeling, Brøndby Masterclass og @Brondbywomen stillede i dag op til fællesfoto i anledning af #Fodboldtrøjefredag 📸 Støt Brøndby IF's indsamling til fordel for Børnecancerfonden med et valgfrit beløb på Mobilepay: 𝟱𝟴 𝟲𝟭 𝟲𝟬 📲
We (myself and @jernejfl ) created the Gary Neville metric (so-called because it arose from a discussion I had with him) to measure how players respond when they go a goal down. One of this season's best performers is Luton's Marvelous Nakamba.
Should we account for team quality (Elo) in xG models? While I'm against this in principle, I tried it out. ✍️ (Link in first reply. 🔗)
2023's instalment of a recent @PAdugout tradition, the calendar year league table: irishnews.com/sport/soccer/a… Thanks and a happy new year to Ben Mayhew, who brought this to PA from @experimental361, and @philleake91 who worked on this year's with me before leaving the company
Tottenham head coach Ange Postecoglou talking brilliantly about mental health in football ❤️
✍️New blog post on "meta-metrics" in soccer, replicating part of a 2017 JQAS article from Franks, D'Amour, Cervone, and Bornn. ⚖️Does a metric reliably differentiate between players? 📈Does a metric measure a quantity that is stable over time? (see reply for link)
It’s worth understanding that if Mason Greenwood doesn’t in fact come back for Manchester United it’s because United’s plan to create an environment which seemed more amenable to his return than it actually was failed. And it failed because it was revealed by @AdamCrafton_.
Lewis Dunk's "pre-progression" passes this season These are passes that assist passes into the final third or progressive passes Dunk ranks #2 in the Premier League for both pre-progressive passes & pre-final-third passes Enabler
Hear me out, but the most fascinating club in British football currently are... Queen's Park. Their aim: use data, science, a Dutch sporting director and talent ID to create a homegrown XI that can take a bottom-tier club to the top. Long read. inews.co.uk/sport/football…
The graph on the left has been getting a lot of attention the past few days. So should the graph on the right.
Luck plays an outsized role in soccer - as much as we hate to admit it. And two things a player can't control (but gets credit for) are goalkeeper performance and teammate finishing. So who were the luckiest players in MLS last year, who benefited from those things?
If there is a recent innovation that is going to change the world, it isn't ChatGPT3. It is @streamlit . Thanks to @Jernej tireless creation on it at @twelve_football, it has changed my life the last year. Everyone should know about it. streamlit.io
Arsenal are running really nicely this year and - like Liverpool in 2019/20 - they have a better goal difference than their expected goal difference suggests they should *and then* more points than that goal difference would normally get.
The graph illustrates performance in the next season for the top and bottom 20% of players based on their Goals minus xG. Only 10% of the top players are likely to maintain their level of overperformance, while 90% of the bottom players are expected to improve their numbers
⚽️📊 I compared the xG performance of Fenerbahçe when "the players" are on the pitch with the average xG performance of the team. 🛡️ When Aziz, Kahveci, Crespo, or Bathsu play, Fener have less xGA than their seasonal average. ⚽️FB's xG production is high when Mor plays
Two schools of thought on calendar year league tables: 1) Interesting but pointless trivia 2) A peek into a parallel universe to help us challenge the prevailing narratives of certain teams and eras I like thinking about #2
With the growing interest in soccer analytics, it can be challenging to sift through all of the content that appeared in 2022. My latest blog post lists the research papers, blog posts, news articles, books, and podcast episodes that I liked the most! janvanhaaren.be/2022/12/29/soc…
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