Josh Lerner @josh_lerner

Data Scientist, @NORCNews Ph.D @DukePoliSci UChicago class of 2012 American politics, NLP and Causal Inference עם ישראל חי Joined March 2012

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Matt Glassman @MattGlassman312

7 months ago

Ok. Impoundment. Some links to relevant authorities and commentary, and then thoughts of my own. What Trump is proposing potentially amounts to an upending of the separation of powers, and while that's not *inherently* bad, in this case it's bad. Very bad. 1/ 🧵

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Cambridge University Press - Politics @CUP_PoliSci

10 months ago

#OpenAccess from @SPPQJournal - State Capacity and #COVID19 Responses: Comparing the US States - cambridge.org/core/journals/… - @kiran_auerbach, @josh_lerner & @hmridge #FirstView

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Yuan Yi Zhu @yuanyi_z

10 months ago

I'll shut up after this, but despite some improvement of late, political science continues to have a big issue with the study of right-wing politics. It's still being treated as a pathology by default, which means that there are huge blind spots in the literature.

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John Sides @johnmsides

10 months ago

Here is a remarkable demonstration of how much a pollster's choices affect the results. @joshclinton took a single poll and depending on the weighting scheme, he could change the Harris-Trump margin by as much as *8 points*. goodauthority.org/news/election-…

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Soubhik* Barari (inactive) @SoubhikBarari

11 months ago

Next week, I'll be teaching an @AAPOR short course on LLMs and surveys with my brilliant colleague @josh_lerner. Excited to share what we (@NORCNews) have learned and to take stock of the amazing methods breakthroughs of @YamilRVelez, @lpargyle, @tomstello_ and many others 🤖📝

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Robert Komaniecki @Komaniecki_R

a year ago

I am on a mission to get Grok to generate an image with an accurate keyboard layout. Thus far unsuccessful

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Jon Mellon @jon_mellon

a year ago

Out now open access at @AJPS_Editor. 194 potential exclusion-restriction violations for studies using weather as an instrumental variable onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

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Justin Grimmer @JustinGrimmer

a year ago

Allan Lichtman claims his 13 keys offer definitive predictions on who will win the presidential election. Lichtman cannot possibly have the data to back up these claims. He is (at least) 11,988 years away from having enough evidence to support his most basic predictions. Thread

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Chris Law @ChrisLaw

a year ago

Tonight’s RNC guests & speakers all receiving their respective Stone Cold Stunners • Trump • Glenn Jacobs - Kane • Linda McMahon • Hulk Hogan

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Mike Barber @mbarber83

a year ago

Option 1: split ticket voting is the new hotness after 50 years of decline. Option 2: A bunch of Dem leaning voters just haven't admitted to pollsters and themselves that they will eventually vote for Biden Option 3: some weird stuff is going on in surveys these days.

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Yiqing Xu @xuyiqing

a year ago

(2/3) Second, applying Rambachan and Roth’s robust confidence set method, we find that few of the remaining studies are robust to very mild violations of the parallel trends assumption, benchmarked against pre-trend estimates. @asheshrambachan @jondr44

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Sharon O'Dea @sharonodea

a year ago

1600-person randomised study over two years found having people WFH 2 days a week: -increased productivity -reduced quit rates (esp among women, non-managers & long commuters) -no impact on performance or promotion rates nature.com/articles/d4158…

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Janus Films @janusfilms

a year ago

🚨 SEVEN SAMURAI. 70TH ANNIVERSARY. BACK IN THEATERS 7/5. 🚨

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Yiqing Xu @xuyiqing

a year ago

Excited to share a review article written with @guido_imbens: “LaLonde (1986) after Nearly Four Decades: Lessons Learned” in which we summarized 5 main advancements in recent years. arxiv.org/abs/2406.00827 1/8

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Chicago Bears @ChicagoBears

a year ago

All roads lead to Rome

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Chicago Bears @ChicagoBears

a year ago

MOOD

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Peter Hull @instrumenthull

a year ago

Looking forward to this!

Jeffrey Wooldridge @jmwooldridge

a year ago

Looking forward to this! https://t.co/lvkkgi01z5

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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal

a year ago

Does deliberation produce any lasting effects? James Fishkin, @vbolotnyy, @josh_lerner, Alice Siu, & Norman Bradburn consider how to scale up the deliberative process after showing its effect on political engagement as a latent variable. #APSRFirstView ow.ly/2R0c50QRFio