Aloysius Lip @lazycst

👨‍💼 Macroeconomic Adviser at HM Treasury 👍 Macroecon, Chess, London theatre Views are my own London Joined August 2016

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

a month ago

Discussion of creatine as an antidepressant. Wouldn't a lovely natural experiment, were it needed, arise from self-reported usage among athletes, which would likely not correlate with their mental illness prevalence? Then compare with non-using athletes? economist.com/science-and-te…

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

a month ago

Niche identification of a principal-agent problem hindering tech diffusion of AI. Could different risk models - shareholder employees receiving some of the profits from AI, or granted more within-firm protection from its disruption improve receptiveness? economist.com/finance-and-ec…

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

a month ago

Should we think about the potential growth-r* relationship as having a tipping point? Eventually, high and stable growth would attract global demand for your bond/currency as a safe asset. Irrelevant pre-$ reserve erosion, but now this effect could grow and be worth considering.

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

a month ago

Curious if anyone knows the extent of assumably mortgage use in the UK. Presumably they would hinder (further lag) monetary policy transmission, but mitigate the political unpopularity of (especially policy-shock induced) interest rate hikes economist.com/finance-and-ec…

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

a month ago

One arg. from the Socrates contention: writing unlocked new patterns of thought that made old marks of intelligence redundant (ex: lengthy recall). AI is embuing similar new knowledge approaches; current intelligence test metrics will grow less relevant economist.com/science-and-te…

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

a year ago

The most punchy and beautiful evidence from @CMAgovUK : Both market concentration and national minimum wage bite proportion negatively affect employment growth. However, the two effects cancel out; raising NMW can reverse negative employment effects in highly concentrated markets

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

2 years ago

Why commission a consultancy to analyse health spending and growth if its only going to conduct an OLS regression? FYI in health, the default position is increased prosperity drives demand for health spending, before we even think about two-way causality -nhsconfed.org/system/files/2…

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

2 years ago

Marshallian agglomeration tells us two ice cream stores set up back-to-back on an empty beach. New - Belderbos et al. (Apr 2023, CEPR) - owing to adverse selection in heterogeneous productivity level markets, the biggest and best ice cream store will set up all on its lonesome...

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

2 years ago

Is this just the scariest abstract you might have come across in a long time? #interestrates #housing

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Aloysius Lip @lazycst

2 years ago

Interesting from @edballs & co "The rise in regional inequality has been driven by Ldn & the SE... among the rest, there was a small trend towards convergence over time". Given @CentreforCities "Capital losses" has Ldn flatlining post-GFC, is current aggregate trend convergence?