MACRO INSIGHT @macro_insights

One day, people may forget data, logic, arguments, but they would remember the picture. Picture with trustful data speaks for itself. Ireland Joined November 2019

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MACRO INSIGHT @macro_insights

4 years ago

As the short economic cycle decelerates further, the central bank is moving into a position to ease. RRR will be cut when inflation pressure alleviates; forex reserve accumulation will slow to reflect improving consumption; RMB will depreciate to reflect policy easing.

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MACRO INSIGHT @macro_insights

4 years ago

Over 90% of China's household financial assets were generated in the past 20 years. From a base with little private wealth accumulated, particularly prior to commercial housing reforms, most household financial assets still rest in the hands of first-generation entrepreneurs.

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MACRO INSIGHT @macro_insights

4 years ago

With China's economic model continuing to support a high business formation rate, we expect small business owners to require more comprehensive financial services – including banking and financial services, legal and tax advice, and health and property protection.

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MACRO INSIGHT @macro_insights

4 years ago

Northbound flows have been exceptionally resilient YTD despite weak performance of Chinese equities, thanks to A-share's outperformance vs. offshore given much lower exposure to Internet sectors and more offering of thematic opportunities that are aligned with policy tailwind.

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MACRO INSIGHT @macro_insights

4 years ago

China's home-buying cohort (35-55 year-olds) percentage will be peaking soon, probably in the next 5-10 years. China is not likely to have two humps as that in Japan and US because of the "One Child" policy. The most rapid phase of property price surge is likely behind us.

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MACRO INSIGHT @macro_insights

4 years ago

Average return on investment in urbanization has roughly halved in the past decade, but developers’ financing costs are rising due to the recent policies such as the “three red lines” - a recipe for leveraged fallout. #EvergrandeCrisis