Michal Wrobel @michal_wrobel

Joined June 2009

Tweets

53
Followers

49
Following

441
Likes

193

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein

3 years ago

when your stocks rally, it’s because junk is getting bid up by a short-covering rally instigated by retail call option nonsense. when my stocks rally, it’s because institutions are finally re-rating my high quality companies trading at a discount to fair value.

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Michal Wrobel @michal_wrobel

3 years ago

Stanford Webinar - GPT3 & Beyond: Key concepts and open questions in a golden age for natural language understanding. youtu.be/-lnHHWRCDGk via @YouTube

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Michal Wrobel @michal_wrobel

3 years ago

"If the Adani Group saga occurred in a different context, one where the macro was a tailwind to Indian assets, the broader selloff would be a buying opportunity. Unfortunately for Indian assets, that is not the case."

Marko Papic @Geo_papic

3 years ago

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Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

3 years ago

2022 was the worst year in history for bonds, with no place to hide except Treasury Bills and short duration. Data via @ycharts

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Michal Wrobel @michal_wrobel

3 years ago

Sea change. oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/…

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Patrick Saner @patrick_saner

3 years ago

What happens once inflation goes above 8%, as is currently the case? Data since 1920 shows that once CPI >8%, it takes around 2 years (!!!) to even fall beneath 6%. Yet, current consensus expects us to be back at or even below 3% in just two years 🧐

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins

3 years ago

6) But here is the really important point. They ALWAYS underestimate the severity of every recession. Usually they assume just a period of subtrend growth, which allows a modest & gradual uptick in joblessness & resolves any underlying imbalances. A soft landing. Sound familiar?

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Michal Wrobel @michal_wrobel

3 years ago

"(…)everyone and their lab now wants to build semis domestically. Even Germany is getting in on the act. In about five years, we will have such an oversupply of semiconductors that we will be using 5nm chips as coasters."

Marko Papic @Geo_papic

3 years ago

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Michal Wrobel @michal_wrobel

3 years ago

"That suggests that we may well be setting ourselves up for a second hump of inflation next year which may require the Fed to do more than priced in (which is currently to cut 50bps)."

Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

3 years ago

"That suggests that we may well be setting ourselves up for a second hump of inflation next year which may require the Fed to do more than priced in (which is currently to cut 50bps)."

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Michal Wrobel @michal_wrobel

3 years ago

Fusion breakthrough, but don't get too excited just yet.

Javier Blas @JavierBlas

3 years ago

Fusion breakthrough, but don't get too excited just yet.

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Mujtaba Rahman @Mij_Europe

4 years ago

The EU's rule of law crisis with Poland is now not so much an issue of East vs West, but West vs West—with Angela Merkel directly squaring off against her Northern European allies over how to resolve the stand-off—& a weak European Commission President caught in the middle 1/

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Emanuel Derman @emanuelderman.bsky @EmanuelDerman

5 years ago

The implied volatility of an option represents two ideas: 1a. It is the lognormal volatility the underlier would have to have in the future to expiration if the underlier evolved by geometric Brownian motion; and … 1/n

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Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke

5 years ago

Soros: Theory of Reflexivity states that investors don't base decisions on reality, but rather on their perceptions of reality. The actions that result from these perceptions have an impact on reality which then affects investors' perceptions and thus prices. Got That?!

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Ricardo Reis @R2Rsquared

5 years ago

*** Monetizing the debt When a country faces a large sudden expense with strains on economy and financial sector, the government massively borrows. Debt markets can't absorb new debt, so the central bank steps in. Is debt being monetized and will inflation soon follow? [1/12]

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Oliver Renick @OJRenick

6 years ago

ok let's all just take a deep breath here

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The Market Ear @themarketear

6 years ago

Dennis Rodman and the Art of Portfolio Optimization themarketear.com/posts/c-sh6eCr…

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

6 years ago

Investors appear to be losing their appetite for U.S. debt at such low yields. The Treasury saw the weakest demand for its benchmark 10-year note yesterday in a decade. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder

6 years ago

'High-yield bond spreads are inconsistent with debt downgrades.' blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2019… via @SoberLook

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm

6 years ago

The #Fed joins others in warning about corporate #debt. Its latest "Financial Stability Report" notes that highly indebted companies accounted for 40% of loans disbursed in the first quarter of this year. Here's the link: federalreserve.gov/publications/f… #economy #markets #leverage

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta

6 years ago

For sanity purposes, here is a reminder of yet another absurdity: Corporate debt at extreme levels but credit spreads near record lows? This imbalance is unsustainable and party should soon be over. Stocks & corporate credit due to resume what began in Q4.