Marius Strønen @mstronen
Joined September 2011-
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1/ I’m an Israeli academic. My community is too silent about the ongoing war in Gaza. Here is how I see things based on reading hundreds of articles and watching thousands of videos and images about the war. This tweet chain contains my conclusions as a sort of executive summary.
We live in a time increasingly resembling the second half of the 1930s. I couldn't live with myself with the knowledge I didn't do more to stop another Hitler. In light of the Republican wavering and in memory of Navalny I will give $100 towards FPV drones for Ukr for every RT.
Our EU V.P for Foreign Affairs: ‘’Europe is in danger - between two wars.’’
Our EU V.P for Foreign Affairs: ‘’Europe is in danger - between two wars.’’
One bright spot on the inflation front is the rapid mean reversion of the money supply. Below I show real M2 against its central trendline. /🧵
Want to get out of the geopoliticsl doom loop? Check out my latest piece with my Dad, @Halsrethink on the @JoeBiden & President Xi meeting. Geopolitics has become too expensive for both leaders. Both need a historic win right now for different reasons. Get ready for some better…
The freight market is experiencing a severe recession and bloodbath. Here is a round-up of the doom and gloom headlines that have occurred in one of the worst downturns in freight market history. Full articles and ongoing coverage on FreightWaves. 1/🧵
Allow me to add some perspective to this...it's going to get MUCH worse. I recently sent an article to all my bank/credit union clients that postulated (it's 100% accurate) that FICO scores climbed artificially higher during Covid due to the TEMPORARY debt moratoriums and govt…
Allow me to add some perspective to this...it's going to get MUCH worse. I recently sent an article to all my bank/credit union clients that postulated (it's 100% accurate) that FICO scores climbed artificially higher during Covid due to the TEMPORARY debt moratoriums and govt…
While some market commentators keep looking for alternal explanations of rates rising on longer duration bonds, we continue to explain it is the growing US fiscal deficit which is driving rates up...10 yr Treasuries to blow past 5.0 % at any moment!
While some market commentators keep looking for alternal explanations of rates rising on longer duration bonds, we continue to explain it is the growing US fiscal deficit which is driving rates up...10 yr Treasuries to blow past 5.0 % at any moment!
Last March, we wrote an article about an imminent freight recession. Three months later, we warned about a collapse in imports from China. We received a lot of hate from these calls. SONAR data and analysis forewarned about one of the sharpest downturns in freight since…
Since 1962, 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond yield inversion has systematically led to a recession Except in 1965
Give me your best why ‘this time is different’ #yieldcurve #recession
- #China's Local Government Financing Vehicles, or #LGFVs, holding USD 9 trillion in #debt, losing their primary source of income, selling land. - Another major Chinese #property developer, #CountryGarden, seeking to extend a maturing bond - A major Chinese wealth manager,…
Here is the plan: Europe reduces Carbon Emissions by 1.65bnt til 2030. For that we may waste €20trn on zero productivity gains, risk our industrial base or get greenflation. Meanwhile, Asia will add those 1.65bnt we save every other year, assuring CO2 increases globally.
No, disappointing borrowing isn't "a cry" for more easing if the problem is weak loan demand. And @ChinaBeigeBook credit data have shown, unquestionably, that the issue in 2023 has been that loan demand has remained immune to cheaper cost of capital. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I have been pretty vocal over the past few quarters about how bad the trend in Chinese foreign direct investment was. But the Q2 data was EVEN WORSE than I expected. Global corporates have simply stopped investing in China... (The liabilities, blue bars, are the inflows)
Why is demand for loans among European busn esp. small & mid-sized at an all-time low (20yrs)? It is NOT rate hikes. Rates rise and so does lending during real inflation. In Europe, lending has crashed. Yes, crashed like 2011-12 and 2008-09. buff.ly/43IiYin
Recessions often are caused by excessive central bank tightening. One sign that the policy pendulum has swung too far is an inverted yield curve. Below we see that yield curve inversions invariably lead to recessions, but with frustratingly variable lead times. Plus, the…
But wind and solar alone cannot replace Diablo Canyon. The 18 Gw of solar that the article proposes as a replacement (cost ~ $20 billion) only produces during the day. To replace Diablo Canyon you would need to add storage to spread that energy over 24 hours.
China's economic deterioration is a major threat to the global economy A thread 🧵

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