Oli Hawkins @olihawkins
Editorial Data Scientist for the @FinancialTimes. Using Python, R and JavaScript to analyse, model and visualise data. olihawkins.com Joined November 2009-
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@olihawkins @martinstabe *squints trying to read r, the most unreadable programming language* You're both magicians.
Some awesome work from my little powerhouse team of internal storytelling experimentation, and collaboration with the data journalism team (props to @olihawkins and @martinstabe) and the live editorial team.
Very excited to have joined the #dogsatpollingstations club this year.
Marketing email of the day: "I've reached out a few times about [thing]. I don't want to keep emailing if it's not of interest" And yet here I am reading the email you sent me, sir
I’ve seen enough: Labour have gained control of Hartlepool Council ft.com/content/252041…
This is a good paper for honing your B.S. detector. So, cute ID strategy. Why do you already know it's not real?
This looks interesting and timely. "Eclipse: How Darkness Shapes Violence in Africa" papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Here you also don't have to dice the data a 1000 different ways and then squint at a CI that barely misses 0 to buy this evidence. You can see it, directly, in an animation. You can directly see it. With your face. Update your priors using your face.
If you prefer your method rants sung to you, I used suno.ai and GPT4 to turn this into a song called: "Instrumental....Variables" app.suno.ai/song/eecdf56e-…
Excited to share one of my photos is going to be featured on a U.S. postage stamp, part of a series called “Carnival Nights” that the @USPS is releasing in June. My image is of a ferris wheel at night on the midway of the @IowaStateFair. Now my photos are first class (dad joke).
As a builder, I give anyone who builds massive sympathy and respect for trying hard things. If I have a choice of standing with the critics or standing with the builders, I’m standing with the builders every damn time.
The people posting about Gemini bugs are people who never have (or forgot how) to ship software, doing it for clicks, or doing it for dog whistle rage. This is the way software (especially black box software like ML) gets better - ship, find edge cases, improve.
Then vs now as featured in @guardian Paul: This photo was taken in the cupboard-under-the-stairs-turned-office at my parents’ old house. We had just been on Top of the Pops and Chime was in the Top 40, so the Sevenoaks Chronicle wanted to interview us.
Ára Bátur remains one of the most beautiful songs I've ever heard youtube.com/watch?v=vUK_ou… #sigurros
When looking at divergence in polls worth watching 1) Con / Reform share 2) Lab / Lib / Green share & balance within each ‘group’ A few things *could* explain differences eg do pollsters weight to past vote, prompt for smaller parties, squeeze DKs & how they manage turnout.
At the time, Serena took on five amateurs at once, just to check. They barely got a ball in play.
Men: I could totally take Serena Williams in tennis Serena
Or this - although represents a slightly different kind of bias that poll designers need to beware From @karlusss
Lovely bit of polling from Savanta: 41% of Brits have heard about Beergate, 74% Partygate - and 20% claim they know about Hikegate 'a fictional Covid-related scandal relating to Ed Davey'
The proportion of people who say they wash their towels once or twice a year isn’t far off the proportion who’ll say any old nonsense in a survey. dailymail.co.uk/health/article…
Unfortunately , too few people understand the distinction between memorization and understanding. It's not some lofty question like "does the system have an internal world model?", it's a very pragmatic behavior distinction: "is the system capable of broad generalization, or is…
“LLMs are just doing next-token prediction without any understanding” is by now so clearly false it’s no longer worth debating. The next version will be “LLMs are just tools, and lack any intentions or goals”, which we’ll continue hearing until well after it’s clearly false.
Popping this up: a response to a question about what I consider reasoning & planning, why current Auto-Regressive LLMs can't do it, why that would require AI systems with world models, and why we still have a lot of progress to do towards AI systems that can learn and reason.