globalmacro @yoyoyoyoyo2020
new york Joined December 2009-
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🚨 The Fed’s worst nightmare is here: Stagflation. Growth is stalling, unemployment is rising, and inflation is still sticky. And today’s payrolls confirmed it: just 22,000 jobs were added in August. (a thread)
In case you missed it: The US job market continued to lose steam in August. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22k, a much smaller gain than expected. Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021. But the real surprise came in the revisions: BLS revealed that…
The Fed can’t afford to wait anymore. Payroll growth has collapsed to just +22k, effectively noise while the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.3%, the highest in over a year. That headline masks even deeper weakness: hours worked in manufacturing slipped again, part time for…
The Fed can’t afford to wait anymore. Payroll growth has collapsed to just +22k, effectively noise while the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.3%, the highest in over a year. That headline masks even deeper weakness: hours worked in manufacturing slipped again, part time for… https://t.co/wp440SYQax
BofA: We stick to our view that the next Fed Chair will lead the FOMC in a more dovish direction. We now look for another 75bp of cuts under the new Chair. We pencil those in for Jun, Sep, and Dec 2026. This takes our forecast of cumulative cuts by end-2026 from 100bp to…
The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility is on life support. The Reverse Repo once held $2.5T daily, now just $21.07B. That 99% wipeout could reshape markets for years. (a thread)
.@johanknorberg: "The sharpest anti-globalization reversal came in China after the Ming dynasty seized power in 1368, promising to restore stability at any cost. Foreign trade was made punishable by death, and soon even coastal trade was banned. The world’s greatest armada was…
ISM Manufacturing 48.7, Exp. 49.0, Last 48.0 Employment 43.8, Exp. 45.0 New Orders 51.4, Exp. 48.0 Prices Paid 63.7, Exp. 65.0
Gold has just surged to an all-time high on the weekly charts. Imagine trying to time a correction in gold prices while central banks are trapped in a massive monetary and debt crisis, forced to accumulate the metal at nearly any cost. We are living in wild times, in my view.
*JAPAN CHIEF TRADE NEGOTIATOR CANCELS PLANNED WHITE HOUSE TRIP Another fake deal collapses.
@TaviCosta on Fox
🚨 MARKET SEES RISING ODDS OF A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN Prediction markets Kalshi now put the chance of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025 at 44%, up sharply in recent days (+8.3 points) — the highest level since March. kalshi.com/markets/kxshut…
Gold is on fire: World central banks’ gold holdings now reflect 27% of total foreign reserves, the highest share in 29 years. At the same time, foreign holdings of US Treasuries as % of reserves have declined to ~23%, the lowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis, per Crescat…
$BABA Alibaba Q1 FY26 (June quarter): ☁️ Cloud accelerated +26% Y/Y to $4.7B. • Revenue +2% Y/Y to $34.6B ($0.9B miss). • Operating margin 14% (-1pp Y/Y). • Non-GAAP EPADS $2.06 ($0.10 miss).
While the Nasdaq is down 1%, the KWEB ETF tracking Chinese tech is up 1%, with Alibaba surging 10%. This suggests that Chinese equities are increasingly capable of decoupling from global risk-off sentiment and generating independent strength. As the rally extends, global…
NVIDIA SHARES DROP 1.7%; WSJ REPORTS ALIBABA DEVELOPS NEW AI CHIP TO HELP FILL NVIDIA VOID IN CHINA
$NVDA is the ultimate "market general". Down significantly again today. China will not be buying, it will supply cheap substitutes. Rampant AI rally drove current SPX all time high valuations - it is over. Deepseek 2.0 moment
Once when they have a decent product, they will push it to the rest of the world. I think we are now seeing top in $NVDA price x.com/FT/status/1960…
Once when they have a decent product, they will push it to the rest of the world. I think we are now seeing top in $NVDA price x.com/FT/status/1960…
Morning Minute: Standard Chartered raises Ethereum price target to $7,500 by year-end and HYPE hits a new ATH. Read more: decrypt.co/337031/morning…
Venezuela's Crypto Adoption Surges Amid Inflation Surge And Currency Collapse zerohedge.com/crypto/venezue…
There are 11 strong Fed chair candidates. After Labor Day, we’ll start interviews and present a shortlist to President Trump. @POTUS has a sophisticated view of monetary policy, great respect for the Fed, and wants a leader who can restore its mission and credibility.

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