To my younger followers who have had unconventional, tough starts to their real estate careers:
I was fired from my first job out of graduate school (June 2022), days before my start date, after I had moved 1,000 miles away from home, because the employer learned I wasn't…
Hell of a year in the books
A year ago I was graduating, time flies
Researched over $80B in RE funds and coinvestments this year
Putting out a quick write up of my activity, really just meant to reach out to folks and keep convos going
Let me know if interested
Generally, the Funds in CRE that are outperforming peers now were the ones that took write downs early
Its allowing them to take less marks or nudge values up in the 2H of 23-early 24
Also gives them the added benefit of “getting over the hump” quicker
Much better optics
Private credit party still going strong
Sensing a preference towards new vintages
Some funds that were already active are spending more time on problem assets than on the current opportunity set
Good strategy, just bad timing
New credit funds likely to outperform
Spoke with an Atlanta based multifamily developer today, founded a firm <5 years ago
Said they were having fun until ~4Q22
Switched to survival mode and praying for good news in 2025
Seems to be the common theme
Office went from a significant portion of portfolio construction to <10% in a lot of new fund rollouts for obvious reasons
The name of the game for the new sleeve is flight to quality
If there’s even a value-add play to be had in office it requires significant upgrades
There’s a line between a diversified fund and a fund that does anything it can get its hands on
If they’re doing too much, they’re doing nothing at all
The strategy becomes “we’re deploying capital” and that’s really it
Would’ve thought elevated cost of capital would be the top concern for real estate firms in 2024
Seeing a survey that has cyber risk as number 1
New tech in buildings = increased vulnerability
Highland Mayfair provides institutional quality real estate analyst work (underwriting, pitch decks, investor relation reports, etc.) at an affordable cost.
If you’d like to save yourself time and headaches, DM me or @highlandmayfair.
GPs tend to only make the case for why their Fund is a good investment
My mind immediately goes to what market/scenario does their strategy scare me in
If you don’t create a bear case for me, I get to create my own
We’ve been comparing office to what happened with malls for a while now
Office and malls are not all dead
Though drops in value will and should be widespread
Desirable real estate prevails
Often stuck between:
LPs preferring GPs incentivized to be selective when deploying capital
And
LPs wanting to avoid paying fees on committed capital that has yet to be deployed
A real balancing act
Some firms are steering away from stating target returns explicitly in their fund materials
A huge hit to transparency
If LPs don’t know what to expect, don’t expect them to invest
If you're thinking about starting your own business, I would encourage you to read this.
@sweatystartup posted something that got my wheels turning. It's not really advice; I'm a stranger, and advice from strangers can be self-serving, but it will be honest.
Here goes..
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