Dominik Cisar @CisarDominik
👑 Joined November 2012-
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New PISA results are out. Here's a quick sketch comparing 2018 to 2022, emphasizing the Visegrad 4 countries: Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia. Czechia and Poland are tied. Slovakia is at the bottom of the V4. NB the y-axis is truncated. #STEM #math #science #education
RIP to a real one
The Nasdaq Comp is outperforming the Dow by more than 30 percentage points this year--the widest margin on record in data going back to 1971 wsj.com/livecoverage/s… @WSJmarkets
The 2s10s yield curve is once again inverted more than -100bps. Disinflationary forces are accelerating and the unemployment rate is likely to climb. The Fed is promising a soft landing but they know nothing. Same people said inflation was transitory and subprime was contained.
How many times does a report have to come in better than expected before you adjust your models?
Sample of 100,000 Ethereum NFT transfers From 2017 to 2023 (left-right) (dots ~ wallets; lines ~ transfers)
JPM shows how at this rate US excess savings are likely to be totally depleted by June 2023.
An update to this hugely important chart in US macro. If we get even a fraction of the drawdown in house prices that this chart would suggest, any talk of a soft landing would be over!
You'll never guess what happens next
SILICON VALLEY BANK Some takeaways and thoughts regarding the SVB situation on a Friday afternoon before logging off for the weekend. First, what happened? 1/
Powell summary: This is a chairman confidently stating that inflation is waning now. Safe to assume that Powell has been THE key person behind orchestrating the most recent coordinated "inflation has peaked" message from global central banks. 1/n
Great chart via @johnauthers
The market is now pricing the 5.125% dot plot projection almost to perfecting by July, but cuts are priced already very soon thereafter. The Fed has won the battle on the >5% peak, but NOT the battle on the high for longer narrative.
Markets are definitely buying into the "China is back" theme. We're tracking the strongest inflow into China since 2020 (orange). That's coming at the expense of the rest of EM, as investors increase their allocations to China and cut their allocations everywhere else...
China's service sector rebounded as the pandemic restrictions receded. The Caixin China General Services #PMI posted 52.9 in January (Dec: 48.0). Business confidence rose to the highest since February 2011. @caixin Read more: ow.ly/yatf50MIA01
In terms of market cap, the reaction so far to Apple, Alphabet and Amazon results post-market might just cancel out the gain in Meta over the last 24%. All of them down about 5 or 6% so far. Startling end to a day that's seen such a Nasdaq rally.....
Oh boy. Retail has been run over by an institutional bus so far this year All time high inflow to SQQQ amidst a face ripping rally
Retail trading orders, as a percentage of volume, have surpassed the 2021 meme-mania peak. (via @business @luwangnyc) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#copper prices tend to lead the CPI by around 2-3 months
SebastianeAbe @qcy4dbPa8Qt4o
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CupAndHandleX🇺🇸 @Rornu196883
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Maxout Pro - Workout ... @maxout_pro
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