Election Night @ElectionNight5
I do prevention and early intervention, digital health, mental health - interested in coordinated large shift, long term policy. Joined November 2020-
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Sir John Curtice: Do local election results point to a hung Parliament? - BBC News bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Dear @ManCity You have 115 charges against you, you've essentially cheated the league for years, you've made the league boring and none of it would happen if you you didn't break the rules to get to this position as well as the continual influx of cash. Send me my C&D letter.
The stars are truly aligning - when the unserious people finally leave - Labour is ready to govern. Wasn’t enough for Hilary to fail the people twice but finally admits she is incapable of changing. Good.
Braverman perfectly sums up the Tories error. Street is right - just a moments sanity and anyone can see you can’t actually dig yourselves out of a hole. Long may they dig themselves deeper, Starmer will be troubled only if they climb,
Braverman perfectly sums up the Tories error. Street is right - just a moments sanity and anyone can see you can’t actually dig yourselves out of a hole. Long may they dig themselves deeper, Starmer will be troubled only if they climb,
This is the very same guy who says we never landed on the moon and Covid was an illuminati invention
This is the very same guy who says we never landed on the moon and Covid was an illuminati invention
Releasing Barghouti would be a big fucking deal for Palestinian politics, possibly the only political figure currently capable of repairing the Fatah/Hamas split. But the rumours should be treated as unconfirmed until he’s actually released.
Labour and the Conservatives are briefing that Labour's Richard Parker has beaten Andy Street to become West Midlands Mayor.
London is a far greater city than you will ever understand @Councillorsuzie . It is more complex and joyfully diverse than your hateful populist campaign could ever reach. Now - please - just go away. You are not suited to politics or to London.
“Poles will be wealthier than the British” within five years, pledged @donaldtusk as he lauded the benefits of EU membership on the 20th anniversary of Poland’s accession notesfrompoland.com/2024/05/03/pol…
Image architect 🤣
Because it's inevitable for somebody to compare raw council losses to last year (2023 had three times more seats up), here's some benchmarks relative to total number of contests: -266 = losses are 10% of all seats -350 = as bad as last year -436 = worst for a govt since 1996
Brilliant - another wonderful take doubling down on losing and hating reality - it’s a dream.
Brilliant - another wonderful take doubling down on losing and hating reality - it’s a dream.
It’s posts like these that make it all worthwhile.
It’s posts like these that make it all worthwhile.
How deeply weird to believe in speaking out against gender neutral toilets you speak for all women.
‘Hugely beneficial to men’- so very weird take.
‘Hugely beneficial to men’- so very weird take.
1973. The New York Dolls arrive in the UK. Whispering Bob thought it was 'Mock rock'. People with ears knew Bob was an old hippy talking bollocks
The laughable ignorance of facts combined with cultural bollocks reminiscent of the Tories is thoroughly depressing
The laughable ignorance of facts combined with cultural bollocks reminiscent of the Tories is thoroughly depressing
Remember they cut all the police
Remember they cut all the police
Government healthcare bodies spent £4,800,000,000 with tech suppliers in FY22/23. Find out who's ahead in this rapidly growing market with our 2024 report:
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The breathtaking dexterity of the roti maker at Tamil Prince in Cally Road
As some need a reminder, why uniform swing doesn't apply: -Big swing elections always see some level of non-uniform swing -Polls, MRPs and Locals consistent that swing to Lab is higher in previously weaker regions -Reform intervention pushes up swing in Con-held seats -Scotland
And also - and I do think this is an underemphasised point - no plan.
Tough gig for ministers this morning as there's so little positive from the results to point to. But the problem with the line that "we need to deliver and finish the plan" is that there's very little time left to do either.
@YankeeGunner I honestly think this type of regret analysis is pointless. Of course, we should've won that game, but we didn't do anything silly/foolish; we just messed up. We've taken all 3 points in several games when 1 point was probably the likeliest outcome. It's not about forgiveness
@YankeeGunner Just read this back and can see how the tone may be overly critical, which wasn't my intention - maybe 'futile' rather than 'pointless' would have been a better choice of word? 😅
I think the PCC results tell us two things as they are the one of the only elections that cover most seats at the next GE. 1) Labour are on track to win a comfortable majority at the next election 2) The Conservatives are not heading for a 1993 Canada style total wipeout
Essex PCC Election: 🌳 CON: 37.1% (-16.9) 🌹 LAB: 34.3% (+11.4) 🔶 LDM: 15.5% (+2.2) 🛡️ EDem: 13.2% (+3.4) Conservative HOLD. Changes w/ 2021. electionmaps.uk/le2024
Because it's inevitable for somebody to compare raw council losses to last year (2023 had three times more seats up), here's some benchmarks relative to total number of contests: -266 = losses are 10% of all seats -350 = as bad as last year -436 = worst for a govt since 1996
@ElectionNight5 @Dylan_Difford @robfordmancs No, it doesn’t. It projects how people would vote if there were LOCAL elections everywhere at the same time. It’s the NATIONAL SHARE of LOCAL VOTING People vote differently in NATIONAL elections. Just look at the “other” category - no way you get that in a General Election atm
@ElectionNight5 @stevemmitchell @robfordmancs Historic basis: x.com/dylan_difford/… Plus, Reform intervention will increase swing in Con seats (they didn't stand last time). And, evidence from opinion polls: x.com/dylan_difford/…
An Easter treat: Breakdown of demographics, including some I haven’t reported before, from all opinion polls this year. Excluding Leavers, pretty much a clean sweep for Labour, with big swings (the little arrows) among all target groups.
@ElectionNight5 @Dylan_Difford @robfordmancs A 15-17% lead would absolutely not be small majority territory. Would likely be bigger than '97.
@ElectionNight5 @stevemmitchell @robfordmancs The problem is assuming universal swing which a) is far too simple a measure to work in large swing elections, where there is always a degree of proportional swing, and b) polling evidence is very clear that there is a lot of proportional swing at the minute.
@ElectionNight5 @MikeBrettSmith @Councillorsuzie And @SuellaBraverman knows someone who has gone for their gap year there !!
i am cow and when i stretch i do not moan, i do not kvetch commemorate in verse and song the cow is good, the cow is long
La vache la plus longue du monde.
Superb episode featuring quite possibly my three favourite panellists. Special thanks to @youngvulgarian for finally putting her finger on what made me similarly find Vienna disappointing and lacklustre when I visited it several years ago but couldn’t figure out why…
🚨OUT NOW🚨The right-wing press’s feverish attempts to take down Angela Rayner seem to be failing. What does the future hold for her? And @GerryHassan unpacks the drama unfolding for the SNP. Join @Nndroid, @sturdyAlex and @youngvulgarian 👉listen.podmasters.uk/OGWN240430Rayn…
i *promise* this is a professional post and not at all me doing any dodgy business, but (for my job) does anyone want to talk to me about dating in Westminster. DMs open
Made the papers. dailymail.co.uk/sport/football…
New @kaihavertz29 song to the tune of ‘Because I got high’ Afroman Credits: @iJohnnyCochrane 🎶🎵🎶🎵
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