Russell Bradshaw @Forensic_Stats
Trying to make sense of the world through data and statistics. Intermittent transmission. More signal than noise. All views, errors etc, my own. Joined April 2020-
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That all said, some of the ad-hoc adjustments in MrPs more than cancel out these effects. And in fairness to Survation, they don't herd and are very often rewarded for that. It is worth adding that MrPs aren't just about the mechanics of the model, rather they are more about how…
Horizon Inquiry. Code for how to reverse the sign of a number "Whoever wrote this code clearly has no understanding of elementary mathematics or the most basic rules of programming"
One of the most ominous risks for Europe is that of a major change in Atlantic ocean currents. Recent science suggests it has been greatly underestimated in the past -including by me, having worked on it for over 30 years. Here my half-hour presentation in Vilnius a week ago!
Interestingly, Portugal has seen a rebound of covid since a few weeks Why do I find this interesting? Because it shows that covid (at least still) has the capacity to come through in summer conditions 1/2
🧵The Covid in Schools Scandal While much of the media claims the inquiry is accomplishing nothing, its slowly revealed the gov knew transmission occurs in schools and causes harm to a not insignificant number of children
🧵The Covid in Schools Scandal While much of the media claims the inquiry is accomplishing nothing, its slowly revealed the gov knew transmission occurs in schools and causes harm to a not insignificant number of children
Oh dear. A better answer might be: "the government borrows in order to neutralise the impacts of its spending (money creation) activity on prices and to give the private sector the opportunity to hold government liabilities (money) at higher rates of interest, supporting saving."
Oh dear. A better answer might be: "the government borrows in order to neutralise the impacts of its spending (money creation) activity on prices and to give the private sector the opportunity to hold government liabilities (money) at higher rates of interest, supporting saving."
So by seasonal we really mean three waves a year, not really settling into a predictable pattern then. My back of envelope estimate of attack rate for the November-March wave is ~15% based on ONS data.
So by seasonal we really mean three waves a year, not really settling into a predictable pattern then. My back of envelope estimate of attack rate for the November-March wave is ~15% based on ONS data.
@chrischirp Is this info from this UKHSA poster and is the graph telling us something
Short thread on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation #AMOC, which brings a huge amount of heat to the northern Atlantic. If it slows, the region west of Britain cools. And the Gulf Stream moves closer to the US coast, causing warming there. Both are already happening,…
On Newsnight I was asked what I thought the biggest mistake Johnson's government made during the acute phase of the pandemic. I only got to give one answer, but if I'd had time I would have said: 1. Johnson missed 5 COBRA meetings. Didn’t chair his first one until early March. 🧵
An excellent article from George, which echoes what I have been saying for decades. In this thread, I want to explain the major way, the neoliberal doctrine, has totally corrupted our society, and created a demographic apart from the rest of society, quite deliberately. 1/🧵
The East Asian states acted fast. Within a fortnight they mobilised biotech companies and experts to scale a test. Through shoe leather epidemiology, not mathematical modelling, they mobilised thousands of junior doctors.... (14)
Q. Yes. Well, I mean, you were involved in these discussions. Let me just put this to you: was this decision to reduce the protection for healthcare workers because there simply weren't enough FFP3 respirators? A. Not by me' 'NOT BY ME' - what a fascinating choice of words
🚨9th Jan 2020 'Covid, like SARS, was a virus with HIGHER AIRBORNE TRANSMISSIBILITY higher airborne transmissibility...does mean that it could be transmitted via the AIRBORNE route, which includes large droplets & also...fine particles...referred to as AEROSOLS' Who knew? JVT
The single most important chart abt today's Autumn Statement didn't appear in any of the documentation from @hmtreasury or @OBR_UK. But I've put it together myself. It shows household disposable income growth: how much better or worse-off we're getting. And two things leap out...
Just going back through Sir Chris Whitty's testimony at #covidinquiryuk today. It's striking just how critical was of the Great Barrington Declaration. It was "flawed at multiple levels". The idea was sensible "struck me as zero, actually". Then this when pressed by Hallett.
Whitty's excuse about upscaling testing is wrong. He should have set up an advisory group to get this moving from day one. The excuses about lack of infrastructure compared with S Korea is a retrospective excuse and misleading. (1) THREAD
Buried in WhatsApp conversations between then-prime minister Boris Johnson, his scientific advisers and Dominic Cummings, is an exchange which is arguably even more worrying than this headline-grabbing stories. Johnson's fundamental maths mistake... 🧵1/22
The more I hear from the Covid enquiry, the more I think that the PM and the majority of ministers did not have the intellectual tools necessary to understand scientific advice and therefore to be able to weigh it successfully alongside economics, social science etc. In my view…
Paragraph 124: Apparently MI5 implemented its pandemic emergency plan in EARLY FEBRUARY 2020 with Sir Andrew Parker, its director general, saying "I'm inclined to listen to scientists [and] have been told this is coming".
Dr. Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1
126K Followers 6K Following Clinical epidemiology, machine learning, NLP, global health. Intersectional feminist. she/her. Also on @[email protected] @dgurdasani1.bsky.social
Kit Yates @Kit_Yates_Maths
61K Followers 1K Following Author. Prof of Math Bio and Public Engagement Books - "Math(s) of Life and Death" "How to Expect the Unexpected" Get here https://t.co/5e0CphFgRK
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
481K Followers 6K Following Columnist and chief data reporter @FinancialTimes | Stories, stats & scatterplots | Senior fellow @LSEdataScience | [email protected]
AJ Leonardi, MBBS, Ph... @fitterhappierAJ
103K Followers 4K Following Junior Physician-Scientist Views own
Just An Ordinary Blok... @Unusual_Times
10K Followers 3K Following That bit in 1408 where Cusack thinks he's out of the hotel room and in a post office, then all of a sudden the walls start collapsing and... Welcome to Level 7
Ted Brautigan @T_Brautigan
7K Followers 1K Following Generally an all round good person. Definitely not a scientist. Quite possibly a fictional character. Never knowingly wrong.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson
20K Followers 4K Following Policy & Strategy Analytics academic at Loughborough University; Fellow, St Catherine's College, Oxford. Member, @IndependentSage.
Stephen Griffin @SGriffin_Lab
27K Followers 10K Following Professor of Cancer Virology | Viroporins, Antivirals, Viral Oncology, Immunotherapy | Own views | @IndependentSAGE @LongCovidKids @projecthalo #VaccinesPlus
Tom Wenseleers now @t... @TWenseleers
21K Followers 1K Following Views my own & tweeting in my own name Also at @twenseleers.bsky.social
Alex Meshkin, GED @alexmeshkin
33K Followers 5K Following CEO of Adia Health. Frm CEO of Flow Health, one of the largest COVID labs. Since you keep asking, yes, I am a high school dropout. *I don't proof read my tweets
James Neill ≠ �... @jneill
13K Followers 6K Following 77th? 'That guy is impossible! Avoid.' : NBernard BTC (jks, or...) 1KFkyqUL9AmaVXu9SxjQ5PtKPJrryZzQEp @jneill.bsky.social
Gregory Travis. @greg... @greg_travis
17K Followers 2K Following Have moved to Bluesky. Find all of my COVID posts and data there now (@gregorytravis.com) Only still here to keep up the fight against the oligarchy
Karam Bales @karamballes
18K Followers 10K Following Counter Disinformation Project, Former NEU and ATL executive, @Unify1Edu Officer, Freelance journalist & researcher @bylinetimes @whowhatwhy Public speaker
Xepie @Xepie105
32 Followers 2K Following
Thandolwenkosi Muneng... @Thandaw91
22 Followers 609 Following 💻 IT Specialist 🕵️♂️ Forensic Investigator 📊 Auditing Expert 🔎 Decoding Data with Precision 🌍 Passionate About Tech & Truth 📍
Sausey @SauseyBQb90
91 Followers 3K Following
Matt Hills @mat_hills
4K Followers 5K Following A fan studies researcher, working on the book 'Fan Studies' for Routledge & probably also reading and writing about 'Doctor Who'
tickle999 @tickle9991
34 Followers 966 Following
PatrickDCL @PatrickDLucht
2K Followers 6K Following Nutrition Manager, Chef, Culinary Professor, dog person, scotch afficionado, and grilled cheese enthusiast. https://t.co/Wjmz2z6CLZ
beowulf888 @beowulf888
547 Followers 630 Following "Vitat in vitro sed non evadit in vivo." Moving most of my activity over to Blue. I will continue to monitor my account on TwiXter & occasionally respond
Steve Crapo @scccray
338 Followers 4K Following
Jo Rek 🇺🇦 @JoRek7
88 Followers 590 Following Nerd, Computermensch, Hobbyfotograf, Häuselbauer, Papa, Realist, #YallMasking
ErKaDeLa @ClareTa26975369
442 Followers 1K Following "The Greatest Obstacle to Discovery Is Not Ignorance—It Is the Illusion of Knowledge" Boorstin
parTEA @PAA95hWZ5L6esGY
256 Followers 1K Following “The more you learn, the less you know.” Social, economic and political justice etc issues. Teas and pottery enthusiast. (お茶や器が好きです) Fan account on the side.
J @Jen_13_13
20 Followers 441 Following
RosA 🇨🇦😷 @journeycatz
1K Followers 4K Following Mother, wife and teacher on the West Coast 🇨🇦 Vegetarian. Still choosing to stay informed to protect myself and others 😷💉 @journeycatz.bsky.social
Moulookus @moulookus
180 Followers 2K Following
Hangtooth @Squijibo
3K Followers 8K Following will typo and make errors continuously due to nerve damage in hands and neurological issues in general
Cindy Veneziano @CindyVeneziano2
0 Followers 8K Following
Maggie Misan @maggie_misan
196 Followers 1K Following a bunch of negative emotions - zynisch& sarkastisch/❤️: Filme, Tiere, Essen, Musik/interessiert an: Politik, Natur, Medizin, Wetter etc./Herbstmensch 🍂🌻🐿️🧡
B (Mastodon @Currentl... @CurrentlyCranky
768 Followers 4K Following Abstract painter and sarcasm enthusiast. Give us Novavax
Gale Anne Hurd @GunnerGale
181K Followers 18K Following Exec Producer FEAR/THE WALKING DEAD,MANKILLER. Producer @YouTubeEffect, TERMINATOR,T2,THE ABYSS,PUNISHER,ARMAGEDDON,ALIENS Gooner for life
Existential Bread @exist_bread
983 Followers 2K Following Mostly stuff about chronic illness, data, and Oxford commas.
Rosa_Ignis @IgneousRose
37 Followers 798 Following
michelle @rdcarpetcupcake
1K Followers 5K Following 3 yr long covid sufferer; #freepalestine 🍉 cash app: $RdCrptCupcake Venmo: @Michelle-GV
Mayhwa @Atrailofbones
62 Followers 3K Following
Nicensteiner @Nicensteiner
2K Followers 3K Following Covid can harm every single organ in your body and is airborne. Risk assessed 😷 #MaskUp
Izzy @IzabelMolloy
353 Followers 2K Following Early adapter. Playing the long game. Assume nothing. Believe nothing. Check everything.
Wen Haiqin @Haiqin
13 Followers 1K Following Former long-time Beijing resident coming to terms with living in Connecticut.
Ellen @Ellen28900
859 Followers 988 Following Ken Loach & Sixteen Films, grapheme–colour synaesthesia, minimalism, mild crush on Mick Lynch #HousingIsAHumanRight #CovidIsNotOver @ellenstapleton.bsky.social
Climate Action covid ... @ClimateActionN8
507 Followers 976 Following 🏳️🌈👬he/him/they. Covid bereaved. Trivialising the plight of covid suffering will get you blocked . Voting Yes
Anthony Marek @AnthonyMarek4
347 Followers 1K Following If you are not outraged, then you are not paying attention.
Brian1 @Brian178086840
99 Followers 1K Following
Dr Matt Prescott @mattprescott
24K Followers 17K Following Oxford DPhil in Zoology, Environmental Rating Agency (2017, English Water Company / Sewage Report), Ban The Bulb, @BanCoalOrg @RICOactUK #TrumpBrexitRussia
Antiviral Marketing @antiviral_mktng
5K Followers 1K Following Anti-COVID. Fit-test your respirator! PortaCount enthusiast. Reinfection control group. LC. 🌱Ⓐ🇵🇸. DMs are cool, say hi! @antiviral.bsky.social 💜
Chris @contempl8ive
262 Followers 1K Following Somewhat numerate. Covid aware. Tweets all IMO. No evidence provided - sometimes you have to rely on gut feel. In UK. No DMs
Hip N. Shoulder @Redbackbuddha
620 Followers 4K Following I love sport. ❤🤍🖤 Fortius Quo Fidelius. Vixens. Phoenix. Rebels. Storm. Bushrangers. Renegades. Nil Satis Nisi Optimum. 💙🤍
Anne @Cass57Anne
247 Followers 1K Following
Michael DePass @mdepass
90 Followers 720 Following
Ash Jupiter Gillete-V... @AshTheZebra
93 Followers 532 Following
I'M RAY 😷 Wackonda... @ray_vionne
498 Followers 1K Following Software Vibes Engineer 💻. ~Top Flight~ Cloud Device Security. Cocoa butter lobbyist. Drummer. Immunoscrewed. Epilepsy. AuDHD! 😷
Helene Edström @helene_edstrom
452 Followers 2K Following
Christa S @FrauDoktor2000
116 Followers 1K Following If you don't take a temperature, you can't find a fever. „Science is the poetry of reality.“ (Richard Dawkins)
Sunshine & Music @StoptheLyinOne
409 Followers 3K Following ❤️ cats and birds. we need more empathy and kindness. fascism=bad. c0vid is airborne and way worse than a cold.
Misty @MistyNotaBot
338 Followers 1K Following I'm mostly nice (to humans), but I block ai generated posts.
𝕸𝓎𝖐𝖎𝖑�... @mykill
2K Followers 4K Following Usual content paused—Pandemic dad/secular homeschooler, FLARE RE @ Google ☁, infosec DJ (@FoulMouthMike), COVID long-hauler, @iaqadvocates cofounder. He/him.
Prof. Christina Pagel... @chrischirp
180K Followers 919 Following Prof Operational Research @UCL_CORU, . Member of @independentsage. only posting now at chrischirp at bluesky. https://t.co/nNW5zMenx2
Kit Yates @Kit_Yates_Maths
61K Followers 1K Following Author. Prof of Math Bio and Public Engagement Books - "Math(s) of Life and Death" "How to Expect the Unexpected" Get here https://t.co/5e0CphFgRK
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
481K Followers 6K Following Columnist and chief data reporter @FinancialTimes | Stories, stats & scatterplots | Senior fellow @LSEdataScience | [email protected]
Meaghan Kall has move... @kallmemeg
57K Followers 2K Following Epidemiologist, public health trainee, mom, wife. Formerly @UKHSA. Disability advocate. Born 🇺🇸 Migrated 🇬🇧. 🏳️🌈 Personal account, obvs.
Aris Katzourakis @ArisKatzourakis
33K Followers 1K Following Paleovirology, cross-species transmissions, evolution, genomics, viruses, selfish genes. UCU NEC, Branch Hon Sec, Oxford Biol. Tweets mine, retweets not.
Just An Ordinary Blok... @Unusual_Times
10K Followers 3K Following That bit in 1408 where Cusack thinks he's out of the hotel room and in a post office, then all of a sudden the walls start collapsing and... Welcome to Level 7
Ted Brautigan @T_Brautigan
7K Followers 1K Following Generally an all round good person. Definitely not a scientist. Quite possibly a fictional character. Never knowingly wrong.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson
20K Followers 4K Following Policy & Strategy Analytics academic at Loughborough University; Fellow, St Catherine's College, Oxford. Member, @IndependentSage.
Stephen Griffin @SGriffin_Lab
27K Followers 10K Following Professor of Cancer Virology | Viroporins, Antivirals, Viral Oncology, Immunotherapy | Own views | @IndependentSAGE @LongCovidKids @projecthalo #VaccinesPlus
Tom Wenseleers now @t... @TWenseleers
21K Followers 1K Following Views my own & tweeting in my own name Also at @twenseleers.bsky.social
Dr Zoë Hyde @DrZoeHyde
60K Followers 505 Following Epidemiologist & biostatistician. OzSAGE scientific advisory group member. We need a #VaccinesPlus strategy for #COVID19. Views my own. https://t.co/jk7yYe8hyD
James Neill ≠ �... @jneill
13K Followers 6K Following 77th? 'That guy is impossible! Avoid.' : NBernard BTC (jks, or...) 1KFkyqUL9AmaVXu9SxjQ5PtKPJrryZzQEp @jneill.bsky.social
Karam Bales @karamballes
18K Followers 10K Following Counter Disinformation Project, Former NEU and ATL executive, @Unify1Edu Officer, Freelance journalist & researcher @bylinetimes @whowhatwhy Public speaker
Theo Sanderson @theosanderson
13K Followers 1K Following (increasingly on bluesky, @theo.io) Assistant professor @LSHTM working on viral genomics. Previously: @TheCrick, @GoogleAI, @sangerinstitute 🧪 🤖 🖥️
Matt Hills @mat_hills
4K Followers 5K Following A fan studies researcher, working on the book 'Fan Studies' for Routledge & probably also reading and writing about 'Doctor Who'
Nick Wallis @nickwallis
53K Followers 5K Following Journalist. Writing 'The Great Post Office Cover-Up’. Occasionally appearing on Times Radio. Not a fan of the genderwang. DMs open.
David R Tomlinson �... @DRTomlinsonEP
8K Followers 1K Following Cardiac EP & against avoidable death & illness | Fighting KOL research misconduct | https://t.co/VCg1WiEH9w | No COI | #COVIDisAirborne Clean air geek & hobbit
Christophe Barraud�... @C_Barraud
201K Followers 362 Following 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 CEO at Market Securities Monaco SAM | Chief Economist | PhD | Bloomberg 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 "Top Forecaster" for several years | RT ≠ endorsement
Adam squires @adsquires
4K Followers 1K Following Biophysical Chemist. Aerosol scientist. Jew. Likes lipids, nano materials, x-ray / neutron scattering, pretentious coffee. (he/him/his). @adsquires.bsky.social
The Cultural Tutor @culturaltutor
1.7M Followers 69 Following I've written a book, and you can get it here:
Iván Ramírez de Are... @JominiW
182K Followers 548 Following Polemologist, writer, and speaker on all things related to human conflict. Discussions on waging peace, surviving war, and the fate of Mankind.
Stephen B. Streater @video4me
1K Followers 653 Following Technology entrepreneur. Inventor of Cloud Video post-production. Founder of Blackbird plc. Unorthodox AI inventor. Also musician and Go player.
Dr. Steve Keen @ProfSteveKeen
105K Followers 2K Following Predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Honorary Professor at UCL. Learn 50 Years of Real Economics in only 7 weeks. Apply here: https://t.co/r9HH876IWf
Dave Bradshaw 🇺�... @djbradshaw64
16K Followers 5K Following Microbiologist by trade & training. Family, horse racing, football #COYS, curries, red wine & being woke my passions outside work. #RejoinEU
Feargal Sharkey @Feargal_Sharkey
225K Followers 848 Following National Spokesperson for the Borsetshire Clean Water Action Group.
William Haseltine @WmHaseltine
13K Followers 709 Following Scientist, Entrepreneur, Philanthropist Founder of @ACCESSHI
Ben Walker @bjdwalker
410 Followers 569 Following Tweet #environmentalism #politics #football - dismayed about all of them.
Daily R Cheatsheets @daily_r_sheets
22K Followers 3 Following A Twitter bot that posts a random #rstats cheatsheet each day. Sourced from Rstudio - no affiliation. By @seabbs
Jo Maugham @JolyonMaugham
411K Followers 2K Following Director @GoodLawProject. King's Counsel. Live your values. Fight the power. Keep the receipts. He/him.
Sam Abbott (@seabbs@f... @seabbs
3K Followers 846 Following Real-time infectious disease modelling. Developing methods for outbreak response, surveillance, and pandemic preparedness. https://t.co/qIESZxy6rY
Tom Peacock @PeacockFlu
46K Followers 1K Following Virologist. Influenza and Coronaviruses. Mostly not on X. Find me on the other site.
Sarah Rasmussen @SarahDRasmussen
7K Followers 760 Following Assistant Prof of Math at UIUC. Recently moved from Cambridge U, UK. PhD @Harvardmath. BS Physics. Other interests Covid-19, med journal reform, education.
Mike Famulare @famulare_mike
3K Followers 2K Following Like polio, Twitter lingers on. Learning to be a father, husband, and person. Systems epidemiologist, see Google Scholar. All tweets mine alone, not my employer
Richard Murphy @RichardJMurphy
234K Followers 1K Following Economic justice campaigner. Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice, University of Sheffield. Political economist. https://t.co/Xtno36nWtH
Designing Better Arte... @pmholling
469 Followers 356 Following Senior Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, expert on uncertain decision making- Retweets are things I find interesting, but do not, always reflect my opinions.
Colin Davis @ProfColinDavis
13K Followers 2K Following Professor of cognitive psychology researching social change, behaviour change & people's response to climate change. Recovering chess player.
Michael de Podesta @Protons4B
2K Followers 553 Following Scientist, professionally retired since April 2020. Science is an activity carried out by human beings for other human beings. @[email protected]
Tim Spector MD (Prof) @timspector
109K Followers 768 Following PI of the ZOE PREDICT studies & the ZOE Health Study @Join_ZOE Researcher/Author on microbiome, nutrition & genomics. All views my own.
Double Individual Spe... @x2IndSpeculator
2K Followers 70 Following Investigating, analyzing, hypothesizing, and speculating freely, independently, objectively, sometimes controversially on MARKETS, ECONOMY, POLITICS and SARS-2.
Michael George @Mike_aka_Logiqx
919 Followers 192 Following Windsurfer and IT geek - data analysis and software development. My career has been largely focused on data and analytics, lasting well over 20 years.
Infectious Disease Ep... @idiseaseecology
3K Followers 3K Following Infectious disease expertise, working against misinformation and disinformation. Tweeting on epidemiology, evolution, ecology and public health.
Gupta Lab @GuptaR_lab
23K Followers 404 Following Ravi Gupta is Professor of Clinical Microbiology, University of Cambridge. TIME100 Most Influential 2020; Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher 2022-24 global lists
Dan Davies @dsquareddigest
35K Followers 1K Following I definitely picked the wrong week to give up pointing at things and saying 'the purpose of a system is what it does' https://t.co/cP5vsFcHkU
Na Sirf Musiqi 🧡 @nasirfmusiqi
644 Followers 1K Following Places, data and policy, energy transition, glorious concreete, the socialist dream. Amateur chartmaking from a former music account. Join a union! he/him
Torsten Bell @TorstenBell
87K Followers 976 Following MP for Swansea West. Great Britain? How We Get Our Future Back: https://t.co/crkenPsge0 @torstenbell.bsky.social
Graham Medley @GrahamMedley
9K Followers 2K Following Professor of infectious disease modelling and chair of SPI-M (sub-group of SAGE). Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements.
Alastair Grant @AlastairGrant4
4K Followers 797 Following Professor of Ecology, Director of Doctoral College @uniofeastanglia, and Canoe Coach Working on covid-19 modelling and tweeting my findingsTrends for United States
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