Alessandro @MacroMornings

When silver has broken through major resistance after long consolidations, it has tended to unleash powerful momentum. In 2010-2011, the metal surged nearly 150% in just 18 months, peaking close to $50 as monetary easing and inflation fears gripped markets.

Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta

a week ago

When silver has broken through major resistance after long consolidations, it has tended to unleash powerful momentum. In 2010-2011, the metal surged nearly 150% in just 18 months, peaking close to $50 as monetary easing and inflation fears gripped markets.

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In 1999 - 2000, the ratio peaked near record highs before commodities outperformed equities by more than 150% over the next seven years, driven by energy, metals, and agriculture. Similarly, after the 2008 crisis, the ratio collapsed as oil surged from $40 to over $100 and gold…

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

a week ago

In 1999 - 2000, the ratio peaked near record highs before commodities outperformed equities by more than 150% over the next seven years, driven by energy, metals, and agriculture. Similarly, after the 2008 crisis, the ratio collapsed as oil surged from $40 to over $100 and gold…

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A rapid steepening after a prolonged inversion has often signaled a shift in market narratives: in 1992 the 30y–2y spread jumped more than 200 bps within a year as the Fed cut aggressively, while in 2008 it steepened by nearly 300 bps as policy rates collapsed during the crisis.

Barchart @Barchart

a week ago

A rapid steepening after a prolonged inversion has often signaled a shift in market narratives: in 1992 the 30y–2y spread jumped more than 200 bps within a year as the Fed cut aggressively, while in 2008 it steepened by nearly 300 bps as policy rates collapsed during the crisis.

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🤯 S&P to Commodities Hits Record High The ratio is now near 300 - higher than the Dot-Com bubble and the 2020 pandemic peak. Last time we saw extremes like this (2000), commodities outperformed equities by +220%. Oil soared from $20 → $147/barrel while equities stagnated.…

👷 The Quiet Warning in Jobs Data The spread between Americans saying jobs are “plentiful” vs “hard to get” has collapsed below 10%. Every time that’s happened → recession followed. 2000: unemployment jumped 3.9% → 6.3% 2007: 4.4% → 10% Today: the spread is at its weakest…

📊 ETFs Now Outnumber Stocks For the first time, U.S. ETFs (4,300) exceed listed companies (4,200). Passive flows now dominate markets, drowning fundamentals. This isn’t diversification - it’s concentration. Everyone owns the same indexes, at the same time, through the same…

⚠️ Credit Spreads At a 25-Year Low BBB spreads are just 94bps - the tightest since 2006. Back then, markets convinced themselves risk had vanished. Within months spreads exploded, and the S&P collapsed -57%. Today, investors once again act as if risk has disappeared. That…

💵 Liquidity Hits $22.1T - All-Time High Every time M2 has exploded, markets followed: 2009–14 → M2 +35% → S&P +177% 2020–21 → M2 +27% → Nasdaq +126% Now we’re at $22.1T. Liquidity is gasoline. It fuels rallies, but it can also burn stability. And with U.S. debt at 120% of…

Nvidia’s ability to post record results suggests two powerful dynamics - global AI demand is strong enough to offset regional bans, and secondary products or legacy lines continue to penetrate restricted markets. Considering that AI infrastructure spending is tracking over $200…

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

2 weeks ago

Nvidia’s ability to post record results suggests two powerful dynamics - global AI demand is strong enough to offset regional bans, and secondary products or legacy lines continue to penetrate restricted markets. Considering that AI infrastructure spending is tracking over $200…

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The scale is unprecedented - where past waves took decades to compound, AI adoption is accelerating at record speed, with corporate capex in AI-related infrastructure already exceeding $200 billion annually.

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

2 weeks ago

The scale is unprecedented - where past waves took decades to compound, AI adoption is accelerating at record speed, with corporate capex in AI-related infrastructure already exceeding $200 billion annually.

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🌍 Foreign Treasury Holdings Hit $9.1T Foreign demand for Treasuries reached a record: 🇯🇵 Japan added +$12.6B 🇬🇧 UK added +$49B 🇨🇳 China stayed flat at $756B - the lowest since 2009. It’s a paradox: record nominal holdings, but shifting faith. Some nations double down,…

🥇 First Time Since 1996: Gold > Treasuries Foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries as a % of reserves. Gold surged above 30%, Treasuries slipped below. The last time this happened, gold outperformed Treasuries by 40% in 3 years. Between 2000 and 2011,…

📉 The Auction That Wasn’t a Disaster $70B in 5-year notes, a bid-to-cover of just 2.36, and primary dealers taking their lowest allocation ever (8.8%). By all logic, yields should have spiked. Instead, they fell. Bonds rallied. Why? Because markets had braced for a…

Today’s 50 % reading, with the S&P only a few percent from all-time highs, means barely half the roster is pulling its own weight - remarkably narrow leadership for an index that trades at 21× forward earnings. Every one-percentage-point gain in the index since October has come…

Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

Today’s 50 % reading, with the S&P only a few percent from all-time highs, means barely half the roster is pulling its own weight - remarkably narrow leadership for an index that trades at 21× forward earnings. Every one-percentage-point gain in the index since October has come…

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This relentless bid has helped compress the U.S. equity risk premium to 290 bp - its lowest since 2007 - and pushed the dollar share of global FX reserves back above 59 %, despite endless “de-dollarization” narratives. We can say in other words that the rest of the world is now…

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

2 months ago

This relentless bid has helped compress the U.S. equity risk premium to 290 bp - its lowest since 2007 - and pushed the dollar share of global FX reserves back above 59 %, despite endless “de-dollarization” narratives. We can say in other words that the rest of the world is now…

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So the $100K benchmark isn’t just lifestyle inflation - it’s a reflection of structural pressure. And it marks a profound change: financial security is no longer about surviving. It’s about staying afloat in a system where the costs of "normal life" have been redefined upward.

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

2 months ago

So the $100K benchmark isn’t just lifestyle inflation - it’s a reflection of structural pressure. And it marks a profound change: financial security is no longer about surviving. It’s about staying afloat in a system where the costs of "normal life" have been redefined upward.

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Powell is signaling that the Fed would rather err on the side of caution than risk credibility. If inflation expectations become unanchored again, the cost to restore them will be far higher.

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

3 months ago

Powell is signaling that the Fed would rather err on the side of caution than risk credibility. If inflation expectations become unanchored again, the cost to restore them will be far higher.

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This is not speculation - it’s a long-term structural shift in global reserves strategy. When the stewards of global liquidity start hoarding gold, it’s a signal. Not noise.

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

3 months ago

This is not speculation - it’s a long-term structural shift in global reserves strategy. When the stewards of global liquidity start hoarding gold, it’s a signal. Not noise.

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