NWS Climate Prediction Center @NWSCPC
Official X account for the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Details: https://t.co/Sprfmgcmqc cpc.ncep.noaa.gov College Park, MD Joined June 2012-
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A pattern change to warmer than normal temperatures is predicted for the central U.S. during week-2.
ENSO-neutral is most likely through late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in Aug-Oct). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to #ENSO-neutral. A #LaNina Watch is in effect. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
NOAA urges both coastal and inland communities to prepare for severe weather as we approach the historical peak of #HurricaneSeason Our August 7 update: bit.ly/AtlanticHurric… @NWS @NWSCPC
The August 7 update to NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for: 13-18 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes & 2-5 major hurricanes. Our prediction for an 'above-normal' season remains on track. PREPARE NOW. --> See our news release + downloadable infographics at:…
Chances for Atlantic tropical cyclone formation normally rise in August, and this year is no different! Formation chances are currently forecast to increase for the Central Atlantic through mid-August. Get the latest on any tropical development at hurricanes.gov.
After a mild start to August across the Northeast, temperatures are forecast to warm to above-normal by the second week of the month. From August 12 to 18, there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of above-normal temperatures with daily highs in the mid 80s to around 90 F.
🌡️ Here are the latest key messages regarding the heat building across the Southwest later next week into the following week.
Risk of extreme heat for much of the central and southwestern United States, visit cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more information.
Hot weather possible in the Southern Plains and Southwest late next week. A moderate risk of extreme heat is posted in the Sonoran Desert, where highs may exceed 115 degrees F. The risk declines after August 9, but a slight risk persists until August 13 in the Southwest.
After dangerous late July extreme heat, significant relief is likely in early August across much of the Southeast due to a strong cold front. Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible along this cold front next weekend. wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/L… cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi…
Over 90 million people are under heat alerts currently (Extreme Heat Warnings, Watches, and Heat Advisories). The heat is expected to persist the longest over the Mid-MS Valley and Mid-South regions this week. Here are the latest Key Messages.
Heat is forecast to build and spread across parts of the central U.S. and Southeast from this weekend into next week. Below are the WPC/CPC Key Messages highlighting the upcoming heat wave.
ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, chances of #LaNina conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to #ENSO-neutral. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
Hotter temperatures possible for the Western U.S. late next week, with highs potentially reaching over 110 degrees F for the Desert Southwest, and over 100 degrees F for the Central Valley of CA. Highs between 90 and the low 100’s are possible for areas within the Slight Risk.
Increased risk of heavy rainfall for much of the Desert Southwest with localized flooding possible. Visit cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more information.
Above normal, and potentially heavy precipitation is predicted to accompany the start of the 2025 summer monsoon season over portions of the Southwest, July 2 to 4, 2025. Localized flash flooding is possible in lower-lying areas such as arroyos. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
The hottest temperatures of the season for the Central and Eastern U.S. are forecast to begin Friday and carry through the weekend as summer makes its presence known to a large portion of the nation.
The strongest heatwave of the season thus far is likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic during the first week of summer. Affected cities include Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Raleigh. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predi…
ENSO-Neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26, though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January). #ENSO #LaNina cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
A pattern change is forecast across the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley with increasing temperatures and humidity arriving by next weekend. Heat indices near or exceeding 100 deg F are possible over some areas.

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