Dr. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
Owner/developer of https://t.co/hrCHBENMTB. PhD in meteorology from FSU. Opinions are mine alone. Follow for expert, factual, no-hype hurricane analysis tropicaltidbits.com Honolulu, HI Joined July 2011-
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Tropical Storm #Imelda is intensifying steadily this morning as an inner convective core consolidates and becomes more compact, despite some southerly shear which continues to tilt the vortex slightly. Aircraft data from the @53rdWRS indicates max winds have increased to about 60…
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#TD9 has strengthened into a tropical storm and is now officially named #Imelda. Aircraft reconnaissance data from @NOAA_HurrHunter shows a better defined core wind field, but the inner max wind ring remains asymmetric and rather wide at 50-80 NM radius, indicating that Imelda's…
Still no development of a compact inner core wind ring with #TD9 in aerial reconnaissance data from @NOAA_HurrHunter, so the trend of gradual—not rapid—organization continues tonight.
🌀 Saturday video update on newly-formed Tropical Depression Nine (#TD9; likely to be named #Imelda later) and Major Hurricane #Humberto 🌀 TD9 is expected to bring hazardous weather to the #Bahamas and possibly eastern #Florida, #Georgia, #SouthCarolina, and #NorthCarolina.…
Some good news so far today: The GFS and ECMWF have trended farther south (closer to Cuba) with #TD9's position over the last 24-36 hours (see animations below), resulting in slower tracks northward, leading both models to flip to the "no US landfall" scenario, and rather turn…
The @NHC_Atlantic has initiated advisories on Invest #94L as "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (#PTC9)". This means 94L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but is expected to become one soon and threaten land areas. If/when 94L becomes a tropical storm, it would be named #Imelda.…
🌀 Wednesday video update on two tropical systems expected to develop and bring impacts to the southwestern Atlantic region this week and next week:
Tropical Storm #Gabrielle is entering a more favorable environment for intensification as vertical shear relaxes, resulting in development of a more compact wind field and an increase in max winds to 60 mph. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane as it recurves east of…
The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Seven (#TD7) over the central Atlantic. The system is poorly organized due to its elongated structure, which is entangled with some upper-level troughing and dry air to the northwest, and is struggling…
A broad tropical wave in the central Atlantic has been labeled "Invest #92L" by the @NHC_Atlantic and is being monitored for tropical development this week. Current conditions and the prevalence of deep thunderstorm activity around 92L favor consolidation over the next couple of…
Former Invest #91L is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Caribbean later this week. Models have universally backed off of this system due to a lack of deep thunderstorm activity, likely caused by stable conditions across the central…
#91L in the central Atlantic appears to have a closed circulation, albeit slightly elongated. However, deep convective activity is currently suppressed, likely due to above average low to mid-level vertical stability. Models today are indicating a lower probability of development…
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been assigned the identifier "Invest #91L" by @NHC_Atlantic and is being monitored for tropical development. Conditions favor a tropical depression forming during the next few days. The system will move gradually westward, potentially…
Invest #99L in the central Atlantic is being monitored for tropical development as it tracks westward toward the Caribbean, but its window of opportunity is rapidly closing. A surface circulation has nearly closed off, but intense easterly shear aloft is dislocating the mid-level…
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