Dow Jones
I've compared the 1970s weekly chart to today's daily chart.
The 1970s economic issues are similar to today's.
The 1970s chart shows a rising wedge similar to today and a near 50% drop.
Scary?
You decide.🫵
It’s a jobs recession. Payroll employment declined in June, and while it was up in July and August, the increases were on the margin and seem likely to be revised away. The goods side of the economy, including manufacturing, mining, and construction, is losing a significant…
U.S. MANUFACTURERS reported declining business activity for the sixth month running in August. The purchasing managers index was just 48.7 (23rd percentile for all months since 1980) well below 50.9 (39th percentile) at the start of the year. The nascent recovery evident at the…
Announced job cuts perked up in August. In the latest month, two areas stood out. First, the layoff announcements are increasingly about "economic conditions." Second, corporate restructuring is resulting in more layoffs at the moment.
The market cannot move without tech:
Just 10 technology stocks have accounted for 59% of the US stock market’s rally since 2019.
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla shares have rallied +295% since 2019.
Together, they have…
Ray Dalio sees the future.
He warned, "Something worse than a recession is coming."
It's already happening.
Gold prices are soaring while the USD index is collapsing.
What Ray Dalio sees coming next is disastrous: 🧵
Durable goods prices rising sharply and at the highest pace in decades outside of the covid supply shock. But Washington keeps repeating that tariffs have no impact on inflation...
Beginning tomorrow Aug 29, the United States suspends the de minimis exemption for most imports, meaning low-value packages previously exempt from duties valued at $800 or less will now be tariffed up to 50%.
25 countries have halted package shipments to the U.S.
Yield curves keep steepening globally, particularly driven by 30-year yields. In the US, the gap between 2-year and 30-year bond yields has reached the widest since January 2022.
⚠️The rise in the US money supply is ACCELERATING:
US M2 money supply jumped 4.8% year-over-year in July, to $22.1 TRILLION, an all-time high.
By comparison, the March 2022 record was $21.86 trillion
For perspective, the 2000-2025 annual growth rate has been 6.3%.
🚨US consumer financial stress reached a critical level
The US consumer, the major driver of the economy, is pulling back on spending, as if there is a recession
Read more below!👇
globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-consumer-…
Often, the best moves to make money are about doing less and improving focus, even if sometimes “you need to fire your customers”.
Not every market deserves your time. Not every client deserves your service. Walking away can be the most profitable move you make.
So ask…
🌍 Join our Roundtable on Navigating Disruptions in Global Trade at MIT, Oct 1-2, 2025! Open to MIT CTL Supply Chain Exchange members only.
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This is unprecedented:
Earnings of the Magnificent 7 companies have surged +145% since ChatGPT was introduced in November 2022.
By comparison, profits of the remaining 493 S&P 500 firms have increased just +4% over the same period.
Furthermore, the Mag 7’s EPS has risen…
We found out earlier today, due to the de minimis rule, many postal services in the EU have suspended packages, well, Japan Post just got added to that list!
Many of goods shipped through this service includes video games, audio equipment, small electronics and more.
We found out earlier today, due to the de minimis rule, many postal services in the EU have suspended packages, well, Japan Post just got added to that list!
Many of goods shipped through this service includes video games, audio equipment, small electronics and more. https://t.co/WLKr69Opmi
⚠️HOLY COW:
The NASDAQ market cap relative to US M2 Money Supply hit a RECORD 176%.
By comparison, the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak was ~135%, FAR LOWER.
In other words, the rise in Tech stock prices has widely exceeded the increase in M2.
Great chart: @Maverick_Equity
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