Prem Raja FX @TheCurrencyBlog
Author of https://t.co/UJVngUPPw7 Head of Private Division @ Currencies 4 You. RT is not an endorsement. Opinions are my own. thecurrencyblog.com Joined April 2014-
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Shouldn't get too excited about the U.S jobs data, layoffs don't happen as much around holiday season- the next 3 months are the ones to watch.
⚠️ Pound gives its verdict on Tory leadership race. Sunak good. Johnson bad. Another $GBP short squeeze on the cards tomorrow as risks of another Boris term gets priced out. Positioning is a lot cleaner though so any rally might be short-lived
If a new Chancellor is appointed today, it'll be the fourth person to hold that office in the last 101 days. Political stability well and truly gone...
⚠️ Strong chance dip buyers emerge for $GBP this week. Markets are pricing in a BoP / fiscal crisis narrative already on the back of Truss. But sensible govt policy that eases stagflation crisis + reduces the need for sharp BoE hikes + lowers deep recession risks = good for pound
GERMAN GOVT SOURCES SAY UNIPER BELIEVED TO BE ONLY CANDIDATE THAT WILL NEED A STATE BAIL-OUT
SAS PILOT STRIKE TO START WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT, UNION SAYS
SAS WARNS CO.'S FUTURE AT RISK AS PILOTS UNION GOES ON STRIKE
PUTIN: TROOPS THAT 'LIBERATED' LUHANSK REGION SHOULD REST BUT OTHER MILITARY UNITS SHOULD CONTINUE FIGHTING
PUTIN CONGRATULATES RUSSIAN TROOPS FOR 'LIBERATING' UKRAINE'S LUHANSK REGION
BIDEN MAY ANNOUNCE DECISION TO CUT CHINESE TARIFFS THIS WEEK - WSJ.
BREAKING: Results of the confidence vote in Boris Johnson. Confidence 211 No Confidence 148 A worse result than Theresa May suffered.
Even after the PMIs, markets are pricing in a 60bp rise in Bank Rate by August, implying near certainty that the MPC will hike by 25bp at its next two meetings, and a small chance of a monster 50bp hike. The risk now surely is the MPC bottles it at one of those meetings.
The PMI's collapse in May brings it closer to levels seen when the MPC has cut Bank Rate than hiked it before. The resilience of the price and employment balances likely will persuade the MPC to hike again in Jun or Aug, but the rapid hikes envisaged by markets now are v unlikely
Latest article- Short and sweet- thecurrencyblog.com/big-week-ahead…
Good Morning... Nobody really believes the ECB raises by 75bps this year right? lol
I guess with China on lockdown we should now be pricing in even more supply chain issues…

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