Happiness is the long game, small wins frequenly over home runs, life gets easier when you focus on what you love. Programmer, software exec back to programmer.public.tableau.com/app/profile/jo… Granite Bay, CaliforniaJoined May 2021
For some perspective on $ES / $SPX here's the weekly ES chart since 2019 with an indicator I created to track Failed Breakouts/Breakdowns. Want to feel even better about being long here? Since 2019 ... NOT ONE failed breakdown got a close lower than without much more upside.
$TSLA weekly close sitting right on the key breakout level from Nov 2020. Looking for significant reversal to begin shortly to upper trendline starting with test of last major high to low 50% retrace currently at 223. Oversold is an understatement.
$SPX $ES $SPY With $VIX still elevated going into the weekend would not be surprised to see a final leg down to undercut the Thur ON low and complete an ABC bear flag. Invalidated with a sustained move above 5050 ES and then looking for a sharp reversal back to 5130-5180 level.
Buying outside of lit exchanges (dark pools) was not as bullish as the indices on Friday. Outside of TSLA and AMD most equities were being sold. $DIX $SPY
Interactive dashboard can be accessed here ...
ssdata.onrender.com
$QQQ With implied volatility and the range of $SPX 100 points for April, the only trade that works for me is intra day $ES $NQ Futures. Premium selling not worth the risk of a breakout and the range is too tight for calls/puts. What's the trade here?
Option flow drives dealer buying. Look no further than $NVDA flow from last Friday. With $14M coming in at once with deep ITM June calls with a .70 delta that's $10M in stock that the option seller needs to buy to offset the sale. $SPX $QQQ
With the exception of 0 DTE flow today, the overall positioning in $SPX out to May and beyond was predominantly bearish with Put buying and Call selling.
FINRA daily short interest not confirming the bull stampede in $AMZN & $GOOGL today. Institutions selling in the dark pools $DIX $SPX. Airlines getting bought along with copper. $FCX
$GEX extremes on $SPX tend to mark key short term reversal levels. Last time Gamma exposure was this high was Nov 30, 2022. The high made the following day was 4178.50 on $ES 4178.50. ES high today ... 4177
$SPX $SPY With the big move in SPX in July, accumulation in the dark pools was there and primary recipients rallied. Data courtesy of FINRA and inspired by @SqueezeMetrics work on $DIX and $GEX.
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