Portfolio manager with quantitative background • Overlay management • Multi asset • Financial data analysis • No investment advice • Own views expressed Frankfurt on the Main, GermanyJoined April 2019
Only the beginning.
This 12-year breakout in mining stocks relative to gold now as solid as a rock.
Couldn’t be more bullish for such a historically depressed industry.
Exactly how the early stages of a precious metals bull market should look like.
Gold & silver miners never looked so appealing.
Especially relative to overall stocks offering no value proposition whatsoever.
We could be in the early stages of a multi-year bull market for this historically depressed industry.
These CFO surveys couldn’t be more bearish.
Now plunging the most in the history of the data.
All happening while:
- Insiders selling the most in two decades.
- Dismal ISM numbers.
- CEO confidence falling the most since GFC.
- S&P 500 Buyback index now down on a YoY basis.
"Financial analysts argue that the Fed needs to buy anywhere from about $200 billion to a half a trillion dollars in Treasury securities to bulk up its balance sheet " - BBG
Just don't call it QE4. Whatever you do, don't call it QE4.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We just set a new record again.
Italy now joined the pack.
Today 19 economies have their 30-year yields below the Fed funds rate.
Previous extremes proved to be a bad omen for the global economy.
The Fed is cutting rates, and this count keeps rising.
Share buybacks now failing to work.
S&P 500 Buyback Index is down on a YoY basis.
Repurchases have been a major source of liquidity for stocks.
Business cycles can’t last forever.
At these extreme valuations, equity markets are doomed.
#bitcoin price and stock-to-flow are cointegrated.
Only prediction I take from S2F model is that btc price will be >$100k before Dec 2021 (I did not calculate the exact time, but if btc is <$100k around that time, it becomes non-stationary). BTW a prediction is not a guarantee!
Just let this sink in...🤔
“The integration of Ripple with Temenos, a B2B finance software solution, will allowed Ripple to gain access to over 500 million consumers and 3,000 financial institutions in more than 150 countries.”
@digitalassetbuysmartoptions.io/the-ripple-maf…
One thing I have learned from 45 years of trading:
Markets have a tendency to do what the most number of market participants least expect and don't want to happen.
Descending triangles are most often bearish.
$BTC
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