Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

NVDA once again breaks its own record for the largest single-day drop in market cap. At first glance, it might not seem surprising—8 of the top 10 biggest market cap drops in history belong to NVDA over the past 10 months. But this time, the reason is significant. The AI boom…

Natural Gas: Monday Rallies Another Monday, another 10% jump in natural gas prices. This has officially become a trend. Today marks the 10th Monday since the start of November, and on those Mondays, prices have risen by an average of 4.52%. Considering that prices have climbed…

If you had invested $1,000 in MicroStrategy $MSTR back in March 2000, you would still have $1,000 today

Stock and crypto markets right now

Back in July, I found the EIA’s forecast for natural gas production and consumption in the second half of the year quite odd. I said that if it were accurate, gas prices would have fallen below zero in the fall. But I wasn’t expecting negative prices—I was expecting a revision…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

a year ago

Back in July, I found the EIA’s forecast for natural gas production and consumption in the second half of the year quite odd. I said that if it were accurate, gas prices would have fallen below zero in the fall. But I wasn’t expecting negative prices—I was expecting a revision…

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Before TSLA's earnings report in October, I bought 25 Nov15 $300 Calls while simultaneously selling 50 Nov15 $320 Calls After the 20% surge following a strong report, I sold another 10 Nov15 $360 Calls and planned to wait until today’s expiration, collecting $575 in premium…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

11 months ago

Before TSLA's earnings report in October, I bought 25 Nov15 $300 Calls while simultaneously selling 50 Nov15 $320 Calls After the 20% surge following a strong report, I sold another 10 Nov15 $360 Calls and planned to wait until today’s expiration, collecting $575 in premium…

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Why Bitcoin Isn’t Gold. With the renewed hype around crypto, there’s a lot of talk again about Bitcoin being like gold, only better. And if that’s true, then it’s bound to catch up to gold in market capitalization. That means it would have to grow 10 times over. And from there,…

As I expected, gold and silver dropped after the election. The current reason is that the Fed might slow down its rate cuts in 2025. If the election outcome had been different, there would have been another reason, but precious metals would have corrected either way. In the long…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

10 months ago

As I expected, gold and silver dropped after the election. The current reason is that the Fed might slow down its rate cuts in 2025. If the election outcome had been different, there would have been another reason, but precious metals would have corrected either way. In the long…

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In terms of expectations for the Fed’s rate-cutting pace, we’re ending the week right where we started—with about a 98% chance of a 25 bp cut next week and an 80% chance of another cut in December. As I said on Tuesday: These supposedly 'pivotal' macro weeks tend to disappoint.…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

10 months ago

In terms of expectations for the Fed’s rate-cutting pace, we’re ending the week right where we started—with about a 98% chance of a 25 bp cut next week and an 80% chance of another cut in December. As I said on Tuesday: These supposedly 'pivotal' macro weeks tend to disappoint.…

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The World Gold Council reports record gold demand in Q3—over $100 billion (gold.org/news-and-event…). But I’m not impressed by demand measured in dollars when prices are at ATH. Fundamentally, things don’t look great for the bulls. Central Bank purchases dropped 48.83% (YoY) to…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

11 months ago

The World Gold Council reports record gold demand in Q3—over $100 billion (gold.org/news-and-event…). But I’m not impressed by demand measured in dollars when prices are at ATH. Fundamentally, things don’t look great for the bulls. Central Bank purchases dropped 48.83% (YoY) to…

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It's interesting that gold and Bitcoin reacted the most to today’s Job Openings data. Yet, neither this data nor the flood of inflation and economic figures coming later this week will change the Fed’s intentions. These supposedly 'pivotal' macro weeks tend to disappoint. Unlike…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

11 months ago

It's interesting that gold and Bitcoin reacted the most to today’s Job Openings data. Yet, neither this data nor the flood of inflation and economic figures coming later this week will change the Fed’s intentions. These supposedly 'pivotal' macro weeks tend to disappoint. Unlike…

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I was right to expect some positive news on $TSLA's margins yesterday. However, it doesn’t change the long-term picture. To justify these valuations, the company needs to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, and that’s not likely with the level of competition in…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

11 months ago

I was right to expect some positive news on $TSLA's margins yesterday. However, it doesn’t change the long-term picture. To justify these valuations, the company needs to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, and that’s not likely with the level of competition in…

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The problem with $TSLA is that it’s no longer a tech company. It’s just an automaker. A few years ago, producing EVs was innovative in itself, but that’s no longer the case. Elon Musk loves to sell dreams, but he has to sell cars. That’s why he keeps talking about future tech…

An ATH above $2700 for gold and a short squeeze in silver could be positive for copper. $GLD Gold has been climbing for over a year with almost no corrections. Silver has lagged in recent weeks due to concerns about economic growth and disappointment over Chinese stimulus—just…

Natural gas touched $3 and then crashed again, dropping 20% in less than two weeks. The reason is clear—mild and pleasant weather almost through the end of October. The market is worried about a repeat of last year’s scenario, where excess gas during the winter led to each…

$SPY Today’s inflation data looks concerning, but not enough to prevent rate cuts in both November and December. By the way, September was fortunate with a 24% drop in gas prices. The base was at its peak, but we won’t see that in October, and certainly not in November-December,…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

a year ago

$SPY Today’s inflation data looks concerning, but not enough to prevent rate cuts in both November and December. By the way, September was fortunate with a 24% drop in gas prices. The base was at its peak, but we won’t see that in October, and certainly not in November-December,…

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$NVDA is up 3%, hitting a new high since August. Meanwhile, big money seems to be moving from hand to hand, judging by the large open interest in call options expiring this week and next. There's significant open interest—more than 120,000 contracts each—at the $125 and $127…

Saudi Minister Warns of $50 Oil as OPEC+ Members Flout Production Curbs wsj.com/business/energ… $XLE As I expected, the cheaper the oil, the more disagreements arise within OPEC. The $50 per barrel level has been mentioned and is likely realistic. $USO The only thing…

Evgene Kogan @kogantwitts

11 months ago

Saudi Minister Warns of $50 Oil as OPEC+ Members Flout Production Curbs wsj.com/business/energ… $XLE As I expected, the cheaper the oil, the more disagreements arise within OPEC. The $50 per barrel level has been mentioned and is likely realistic. $USO The only thing…

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